I'm really struggling with the concept that cutting Government spending = more Government debt.
Yes I can understand that lower investment in infrastructure would slow economic growth but equally increasing taxation to invest in infrastructure would slow economic growth even more.
I can also see that borrowing more money in the 2010s when interest rates were at an all time low to invest in infrastructure would have boosted economic growth at the time, but it would have pushed Government debt to higher levels than it currently is and acted as an even bigger drag on the economy today.
The current government raised taxes in the last budget which has slowed the economy (especially NI increases and removal of non dom status), this has meant that tax revenues are lower than expected. This in turn has meant that the Government will have to increase taxation even more today meaning that in 12 months the economy will have slowed even more, resulting in lower tax revenues and requiring even higher tax increases and so on in a fiscal doom loop.
You simply cannot grow the economy by increasing taxation (as Starmer himself declared), which leaves either increasing debt (which is not an option in the current market) or cutting spending on non investment expenditure.
However the Labour backbenchers will revolt as we saw against any cuts in non investment expenditure such as the PIP reform or WFA.
The top 0.1% of income earners or 30,000 people pay 25% of all income tax revenues and the top 1% (300,000 people) of income earners pay 30%.
For the first time we have recently seen a net emigration of 275k Brits leave the UK and a large number of those will be high income earners. We have also seen an exodus of very high income earners as a result of the removal of the non dom status.
The only way out of this doom loop is to cut government non investment spending and then cut taxes but this is unpalatable to the Labour Party. In short it will be an overdue lesson to the electorate on how socialism (nice as it is in theory) doesn't work in reality.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/lakshmi-mittal-arcelor-switzerland-reeves-tax-b2871005.html