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Politics

Reform are getting a shitload of voters

737 replies

HeBeaverandSheBeaver · 04/07/2024 23:27

I have not voted
Reform and live in a safe tory seat But I voted
Lib dem tactical vote

I said ages Ago on here the reform would do really well and was shouted down.

Same as brexit, no one will admit voting for reform but
They still do it in droves it seems.

I'm Willing to bet they
Might win an election in four years at this rate!!

Scary
Times

OP posts:
Thread gallery
14
Tryingtokeepgoing · 05/07/2024 09:38

parkrun500club · 05/07/2024 09:25

Your teens did not read the Reform manifesto if they voted for them. Other than removing interest on tuition fees, there was nothing at all in there for young people. Absolutely nothing.

Personally I wouldn't p* on a Reform if they were on fire, but of the things in their 'contract' I can see tax cuts for small businesses with £100k tax free (gig economy?), tax relief on school fees, extra spending on the NHS, scrapping the TV licnce and raising the stamp duty threshold all appealing to the under 30s

Todaywasbetter · 05/07/2024 09:40

The logic on some people is astounding. It’s so transparent the way there is evaluation of what has happened in this election suits their original political viewpoint. It’s laughable.

Stripesandchecks543 · 05/07/2024 09:41

Kovus · 05/07/2024 08:08

Have not read the full thread.

I am not worried about Farage. His track record is not about building anything, only about destruction. Reform votes are merely protest votes (even if some of those voters do not realise it). There is no 'building material' within Reform (jokingly perhaps Tice knows how to construct a house, but that's it). The kind of power Farage yields can only go so far. What will be interesting is how the Conservative Party reshapes itself over the next five years. There will be turmoil and struggles within the Conservatives and between them and Reform there will be war. Farage may yet meet his true adversary.

Meanwhile, Starmer will quietly get on with housing, redistributing wealth, infrastructure investment, investment in jobs and training while balancing a fine line on the economy. It is not an easy baton, but he just needs to hold it steady. Challenges will come on defence spending (potentially the largest Achilles Heel) and foreign policy. But I suspect we will hear more about the Conservative rebuild than we will about Labour's progress.

Well said 👏👏👏

Neurodiversitydoctor · 05/07/2024 09:44

Devonbabs · 05/07/2024 08:08

They had a mock election at my sons school (secondary) yesterday. Having read all the policies and background for each party, Reform won by a landslide.

Politico’s coverage (usually centre) is asking some very interesting questions this morning https://www.politico.eu/article/labour-election-victory-weaker-than-you-think-keir-starmer-nigel-farage/

There’s already quite a few candidates at 7/1 for the new Labour leader.so I’m guessing the bookies don’t think change is far away if they are already seeing favourites emerge. That’s what to watch.I would say as soon as we have candidates with better odds than 5/1 we’ll see a leadership challenge.

Thanks for this. I am trying to explain this to my liberal leftie family who just will not see it. I may link the article.

EasternStandard · 05/07/2024 09:47

Starseeking · 05/07/2024 07:53

Labour have only got 1.7% more of the vote than they did at the last election; while they have won on FPTP, this is not a huge success story for them.

Tory vote collapsed and split between Reform and smaller parties.

At 4m votes for Reform so far, Reform have leapfrogged Lib Dems and are now the third party of the UK. Despite them only having taken 4 seats so far, it's a stunning victory for them.

Interesting numbers

Top three parties on roughly 10m, 7m and 4m

That seat difference for 10m and 4m is something, when it’s a bit under half of vote share

Tracker1234 · 05/07/2024 09:50

Kovos - how would they distribute wealth?

CGT on your main house would result in NO ONE moving. Or worse house prices would increase to take this account but again wouldnt benefit people trying to get on the housing ladder.

NoMoreFalafelForYou · 05/07/2024 09:51

From what I have seen the teens are getting fed up of all the woke agenda. Most of them have more sense than a lot of adults

This. At my son’s school they held a mock election and Reform did very well. This generation after Gen Z are very cynical about the woke agenda and see Farage as the only politician who calls it out.

Todaywasbetter · 05/07/2024 09:52

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😁

Tiswa · 05/07/2024 09:53

It is a huge success for labour you can only play the political election that you have and we have always been first past the post - in many countries percentage of vote doesn’t necessarily mean being in charge (Hilary Clinton got more votes than Trump but were in heavily populated cities).

The Liberal Democrats for the first time benefited from the first past the post so often they haven’t and it was interesting seeing that question put to Ed Davey

Reform aren’t the 3rd party in Government not by a long way and their voters really are v understandably disenfranchised Conservative voters the centre and the left got more voters than the right and are far more likely to tactically vote

because tactical voting was key

NoMoreFalafelForYou · 05/07/2024 09:54

I’m getting a bit fed up of listening to Labour politicians crowing about their landslide and the huge mandate the electorate has given them. Yes they got all the seats but only because of our FPTP system. 35% share of the vote in a low turnout election is not a landslide. I watched many of the votes coming in and Reform were the second party in loads of constituencies. Their 4 seats do not reflect their share of the vote.

swimsong · 05/07/2024 09:55

Yalta · 05/07/2024 07:40

But if the problem was with the party in power then why didn’t these people turn to Labour

Labour need to worry that ultimately they didn’t win this landslide victory because huge numbers of ex Tory voters turned to them but because the disenfranchised Conservatives turned to Reform and split Tory vote

Interesting to know how many seats would Conservatives have won if the Reform votes were added to the Conservative vote.

Your first objection makes no sense. The problem was the party in power so they didn't vote for it.

EasternStandard · 05/07/2024 09:58

NoMoreFalafelForYou · 05/07/2024 09:54

I’m getting a bit fed up of listening to Labour politicians crowing about their landslide and the huge mandate the electorate has given them. Yes they got all the seats but only because of our FPTP system. 35% share of the vote in a low turnout election is not a landslide. I watched many of the votes coming in and Reform were the second party in loads of constituencies. Their 4 seats do not reflect their share of the vote.

The vote share is very different. 9.6m to 4m so not quite half

Seats though big difference in number

If it were nearly half in representation it would be very different governance and policy etc

NotJinxingAnything · 05/07/2024 09:59

NoMoreFalafelForYou · 05/07/2024 09:51

From what I have seen the teens are getting fed up of all the woke agenda. Most of them have more sense than a lot of adults

This. At my son’s school they held a mock election and Reform did very well. This generation after Gen Z are very cynical about the woke agenda and see Farage as the only politician who calls it out.

So how do they feel about the likes of 30p Lee, to say nothing of the candidates who want to shoot immigrants?

NoMoreFalafelForYou · 05/07/2024 09:59

I truly believe we have ended up with a left-wing govt despite the electorate swinging to the right. Voters were fed up of the Conservatives not tacking migration so they ditched them in favour of Reform. Ironically this handed the seats to Labour. Funny old system. Voters were warned that voting Reform would gift the election to Labour and in doing so increase migration even further. Stop the boats? Don’t make me laugh. Sir Keir will lather himself up in goose fat and swim out to welcome them.

Neurodiversitydoctor · 05/07/2024 10:00

NoMoreFalafelForYou · 05/07/2024 09:54

I’m getting a bit fed up of listening to Labour politicians crowing about their landslide and the huge mandate the electorate has given them. Yes they got all the seats but only because of our FPTP system. 35% share of the vote in a low turnout election is not a landslide. I watched many of the votes coming in and Reform were the second party in loads of constituencies. Their 4 seats do not reflect their share of the vote.

I fucking love this website, you are all so clever and insightful. This thread reminds me of the early corona virus ones. Mumsnet has a long lens.

equisetum · 05/07/2024 10:00

23,000 votes to gain a labour seat
1 million to gain a Reform seat.

Not quite a landslide really when you look at the numbers!

brunettemic · 05/07/2024 10:01

HeBeaverandSheBeaver · 04/07/2024 23:27

I have not voted
Reform and live in a safe tory seat But I voted
Lib dem tactical vote

I said ages Ago on here the reform would do really well and was shouted down.

Same as brexit, no one will admit voting for reform but
They still do it in droves it seems.

I'm Willing to bet they
Might win an election in four years at this rate!!

Scary
Times

I highly doubt they will win an election in 4 years time. Their votes are largely people who won’t vote Labour but don’t want to vote tory again. Their share isn’t necessarily “I agree with reform” it’s more “I don’t want the tories”. It would take an enormous shift for them to win and that shift would have to come from Labour voters, which are less likely than tory voters.

Yalta · 05/07/2024 10:01

swimsong · 05/07/2024 09:55

Your first objection makes no sense. The problem was the party in power so they didn't vote for it.

Looks like they didn’t swing to Labour either

Sdpbody · 05/07/2024 10:02

It is not racist to not want this amount of immigration. There is a decline in the UK in values and safety, which is largely down to different people arriving with different values.

It is currently a huge elephant in the room that people are not willing to discuss.

British people are voicing their opinions.

Stripesandchecks543 · 05/07/2024 10:02

Yes but Labour have a very effective majority in Parliament now.

Keir & co can take concrete actions towards levelling up and will hopefully win voters back in the course of doing that.

Tiswa · 05/07/2024 10:02

Because there is a huge number of people who will never vote Reform. The Liberal Democrat’s have done so well because of this the numbers who can never vote reform and those that won’t vote labour

and where it counts it is a landslide - Keir Starmer can pretty much get through what he likes with that number of MPs

the Liberal Democrat have a lower percentage of votes than in 2010 and 2015 but still won more than ever before

our political system has favoured two parties for years and it won’t change because those two are the ones in power

NotJinxingAnything · 05/07/2024 10:02

Looking at vote share is pretty meaningless. A hell of a lot of votes went to the Lib Dems purely because that was the best way to get or keep the Tories out of specific constituencies.

NoMoreFalafelForYou · 05/07/2024 10:03

So how do they feel about the likes of 30p Lee, to say nothing of those people who wanted to shoot immigrants?

No idea. I assume they went with the issue that spoke to them and for young people it’s the woke stuff rather than immigration. That’s how most people vote. Look at all the women voting Labour despite their dismissive and insulting stance on women’s rights.

Yalta · 05/07/2024 10:04

Stripesandchecks543 · 05/07/2024 10:02

Yes but Labour have a very effective majority in Parliament now.

Keir & co can take concrete actions towards levelling up and will hopefully win voters back in the course of doing that.

Edited

I somehow think that majority will be wasted as Starmer isn’t strong enough to pull all the factions together and I can see a lot of infighting.

Devonbabs · 05/07/2024 10:05

TheAlchemistElixa · 05/07/2024 09:35

No, it’s the racism and bigotry.

Actually it’s the realisation that multiculturalism doesn’t work (usually by people who have seen their communities decimated by immigration. By people who don’t integrate into the existing community) People are actually proud of their country, fed up of being fed nothing but revisionist lies and told self flagation is the only cure.

People with common sense. People who are fed up with the absolute bollocks that comes out of the mouths of most politicians.

And, no Reform isn’t for the “thick northerners” although that kind of hypocritical bigotry is to be expected, especially from the pseudo liberals. I have a law degree from a Russell group university, multiple professional qualifications. Many people I know with similar academic and career backgrounds, who have previously voted both Labour and Tory voted Reform this time.