I guess we will see what vote he achieves if he stands, but I would expect some of those who voted to get rid of him to be people who had voted for him. Many decent Tory voters don't support bad behaviour of the type Bone has been accused of.
For Reform, I would consider this to be a bad move brand-wise.
Regarding the % of vote Bone got, I would discount 2019 - that was the Corbyn/Brexit election, many Tories in safe seats acheived additional vote share as the Labour vote fell away in those seats. So looking at 2017, Bone got 57% of the vote. In 1992 the pre-Bone Tory got 53% of the vote. Personal votes are often overstated. But I do not know enough about the demographics in the seat 1992-2017 to make any comment on whether those results are typical or atypical.
But we will see! I am always interested in by-elections.