who do you think will win the US election 2020?

[florencesmachine2]

I keep thinking Trump will lose but he is the incumbent and Biden never really excels and keeps looking senile
so I am flip flopping and want to know your opinions

I can't even watch or read the news about the elections, it's all sickening. I just don't understand, after everything, how he can still have enthusiastic voters. It's absolutely baffling.

I'll be absolutely gutted if Trump gets in again, mainly because I can't stand to look at his disgusting, misogynistic, racist face for another 4 years.

The DNC did not 'pick' Biden, there were plenty of other candidates who simply did not get as many votes in the primaries and caucuses. Biden actually did poorly early on but came back to win it.

It's impossible to say who will win because we have no idea what turnout will look like, how postal votes will be handled, what sort of tricks will be used to suppress votes, and how dirty Trump will get in fixing the election or rejecting the results.

I am hopeful that Biden will win. Why? Because Trump has his base, who are very noisy and very visible, but I don't see any signs that he has expanded his base since 2016. In fact, quite the opposite. He's alienated a lot of more educated Republicans with his course manner and verbal attacks, he's alienated people in the military - both serving and retired, and four years on quite a few people who voted for him in 2016 (my FIL included), have died.

I also see quite a lot of Republicans coming out and saying they're voting for Biden this time. Biden has endorsement from just about anyone you can think of, even high profile Republicans like Colin Powell have come out for him. I don't see the opposite - I don't see anyone who voted for Hillary in 2016 coming out loud and proud for Trump.

You can bet though that Trump will fight this every step of the way. He will lie and cheat and shout and scream about the Democrats stealing this election, because that's who he is. I just hope that the results aren't even close. If it's a decisive win for Biden then this horrible period in US politics will be over.

I also share your worries @dreamingbohemian. The only way Trump can win this is through dirty tactics and I have no doubt he will employ every single of one of them that he can.

Indeed @zafferana. There are plenty of 'legal' things the Republicans can do at the state level, and have done in the past, like only putting one voting centre in heavily Democratic areas. They can 'purge' the voting rolls and 'accidentally' purge lots of Democratic voters, as we also saw in recent elections.

I think you make a great point about Trump not actually expanding his base since last time. In a normal election I would say he will probably lose but there is no doubt that Trump and his cronies will do absolutely everything to win or at least cast doubt on the legitimacy of the outcome, they know they're all going to jail otherwise.

My prediction (should have name changed to Mystic Meg ) is that Trump will lose the popular vote but remain President. He is a a typical spoilt alpha bully that has always either got or bought his own way from a very young age and he has never had or experienced losing.

He will dispute the result claiming fraud on postal votes (a lot of postal votes going on because of covid). Then make a legal challenge ultimately ending up in the Supreme Court where conveniently he will then have a comfortable majority. This will reaffirm him as President but create a constitutional crisis.

There will then be massive protests and civil disorder where if you throw into the mix freely available firearms could get very messy. But Trump will remain President.

That's a frighteningly believable scenario, 1dayatatime.

Trump is currently quite popular with the Catholic vote as he said last week that babies born alive as a result of a failed abortion would be actively treated.
The comments on the Catholic herald site in support of him
Are frightening.

@1dayatatime I think that's exactly what will happen.

Trump. Sadly.
I’m sure a lot of the US don’t like him or approve of him, but they don’t like what the Democrats have to offer either with the left mired in identity politics.
I think it’ll be close, and no matter who wins there will be some sort of protests/riots.

It's astounding that Trump and Biden are Americas 2 best candidates. I'd be devasted to be living there either way.

I think Trump will get it.

Trump. The tax thing won’t make a dent.

Trump I'd say too.

It comes back to the elite vs the little guy again, I think.
What I'm seeing is that a lot of ordinary Americans are broadly supportive of blm but not of the riots in their name, and are sick of the corporate and media support of critical theory and the all the culture wars stuff.

It just doesnt chime with right leaning people of any degree or a broad swathe of centrists. These are the massive amount of people who want law and order, well run schools who focus on the 3r's, they want to go to work and have the price of a bit of fun at the weekend.

That outweighs Stupid goading remarks on Twitter and what can be dismissed as typical Washington backstabbing hyped up by untrustworthy media.

Someone other than Biden could take these voters, because it's not the moon they want, but Biden can't

The other thing that worries me is that because of the US system of election, Trump really only has to win Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio (as well as the normal red states), to win. And he could do that - Biden is not much ahead in any of those states as we have no idea about voter turnout on the day (please let it be a fair weather day!), voter suppression, voter intimidation and the various ways that @dreamingbohemian mentions about off-rolling and deliberate removal of voters in typically Democrat areas. Trump has spent his life shafting in people in any way he can in order to 'win'. I have no doubt he'll do that this time.

I think Biden will win the popular vote, whether that translates to more electors in the college I do not know. Even if it does I don't think Trump will accept defeat.

@CallarMorvern

It's kind of astounding that the DNC managed to pick a candidate as bad as Biden

Yep, this.

Yeah, creepy Joe vs psychopathic Donald.

The US political system is even more transparently corrupt than the UK's. Added to huge swells of populism and identity politics and the country is in a real mess. I feel sorry for my American friends.

Can the new President pardon the old president - I think they can, didn't that happen to Nixon?

So if Trumps main driver is to avoid persecution for what may or may not come out, he may well inflame things til he gets a pardon by Biden in desperation.
Of course that will create unrest among the violent wings of both sides, but he obviously wont care about that.
I dont think he likes being President. Its hard and he can have as much power and riches Twittering from a staffed mansion and hobnobbing on TV without the hardship of trying to govern.

I can see two scenarios.

1. He'll win, dirtily, through a combination of shady tactics and dragging Biden down to his level. He thrives on picking fights on his own terms and his 'win at any cost' mindset will let him do and say anything. Biden just won't be able to hold his own nose enough to compete.

1. He loses, but refuses to accept the result, and will force the 'machinery' of democracy to crowbar him from office. He'll set himself up as a kind of 'president in exile' at the head of a media network that makes Fox News look like The Canary and be a permanent thorn in Biden's side. There'll be lots of rallies and protests and shootings. America will divide itself further.

Either way, I'm putting money on Ivanka running in 2024. She'll win, too.

Trump wasn’t exactly known for complying with the tax man before he won the election so why would this change anything?

Seems to me that both this country and the US are becoming blinkered to the audacious levels of corruption, hypocrisy, cronyism and outright mendacity.

Trump will win a second term.

I agree with @zafferana. Trump hasn’t expanded his base and has alienated swing voters and many moderate Republicans. I’m hopeful Biden will win, but it’s such a shame that the Democrats have such a weak candidate, it’s a missed opportunity.

People in my area are desperate for change, the rhetoric is so toxic and Congress seems to be in almost permanent gridlock. Local politics are just as bad, rife with corruption, and we’re in a majority Democrat area! It seems like there are no good options at the moment.☹️

Biden would never pardon Trump. Nixon was pardoned by his own VP.

If Trump loses he's going to jail, not setting up a shadow government. He'll be a big-time martyr figure for his base though.

If 2020 so far is anything to go by then I think it will be Trump

Is Kanye West still standing?

He may be running in some states, but he isn't on the Ohio ballot and I'm pretty sure there are states that have earlier cut-offs. People can still write him or anyone else in for President and Vice President.

I want to think that the smaller parties (Libertarian and Green this time around, though the latter on the Ohio ballot just has the candidate names, no party listed, which is unusual) are going to have less of an impact this time. There will still be the Bernie Bros who will refuse to vote Democrat because their guy didn't get in. As a pp said, the main issue is getting voters in the right places. One of their main issues last time was largely ignoring when not patronising the middle of the country and while it's going better than I expected, I'm not sure they've learned their lessons on that yet.

Really, my bigger concern is that no matter who wins, there is going to be a legitimacy problem, which may spread beyond the Presidentials into everything else on the ballot (There are at least 10 other things in the area I'm voting in). There will be significant numbers who won't believe the results if their political team doesn't win and I worry things are going to get bad no matter what.

Really, my bigger concern is that no matter who wins, there is going to be a legitimacy problem, which may spread beyond the Presidentials into everything else on the ballot (There are at least 10 other things in the area I'm voting in). There will be significant numbers who won't believe the results if their political team doesn't win and I worry things are going to get bad no matter what.

Agree. Democracy is dying in the USA. Sad times. I’m even feeling nostalgic for GW Bush!