The Westminster Arms

[DustyDiamond]

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Welcome to The Westminster Arms!

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A non-partisan politics pub thread for political chit chat....!!

Please stick within MN talk guidelines - any posts which you think may have crossed the line, please report rather than getting into scraps on thread 😠

Political punch-ups are soooo last decade - ain't nobody got time for that 🥊❌

Be nice! Be respectful!

S'ok to slag off politicians, but not other posters 🍻

A warm welcome back to Megan and Dapple - glad you found us. Must see if I can find any more old receipts in the back of the till now. Just going to read the Bild article.

Yes, the cat woke me up at 5.21. He's had his cuddle and early breakfast and now he's asleep again. I'm not.

That article by the editor-at-large at Bild demonstrated a generosity of spirit as well as some interesting insights that seem to confirm what our negotiators must know. The UK and EU are in very different places, both politically and economically, than we were in 2016. On one level, I'm glad that Theresa was so useless a poker player because we have a far stronger chance of succeeding now than we would have done under her dreadful deal and equally dreadful leadership. I just wish the Conservative Party hadn't played such silly games with the leadership question four years ago.

Anyway, I found more old till receipts stuffed under the cash drawer so if anyone knows how the following are doing, please let them know a drink and a warm welcome await them in the newly-named Westminster Arms:

@MichaelFabricantsHair
@MarySidney
@mummmy2017
@BovaryX
@notangelinajolie

Morning, all,

It's a lazy Sunday morning here in the Arms but the kitchen staff have been busy and a proper breakfast awaits so please help yourselves.

I've had a look at the Parliamentary diary for the week ahead for both Houses and it seems to be mainly tidying-up legislation ready for our legal departure on Friday including continuity payments for farmers, although the NHS Funding bill could provide some fireworks on Monday. More on that tomorrow.

Kettle's on ☕️☕️☕️

morning all
I'm not supposed to eat till about 4pm.

Twitter is going to be unbearable the next week isn't it? In theory, I'm only following people related to hobbies etc but the wailing and gnashing of teeth has started already.

meanwhile, I don't use cash much but would love a Brexit 50p.

I registered with the Royal Mint but that's not a guarantee of anything is it!

Morning campers!

On Bazza G -
I absolutely cringe when he sounds the h in 'wHat'.

😂😂😂😂😂

Me too!! I was the same with Jezza & the sssss in isss-ue

Problems in Italy, some banks not opening on Monday, and Deutsche Bank closing branches all over. Their share price is not looking good. We are better off out.

scary oh I didn't know

I'm so glad we aren't in the Euro.

Rumours that Deutsche Bank is just about to announce its biggest loss since 2015. It ran down capital levels, with regulators permission, to allow for restructuring charges and to write off bad debts. The loss appears to be related to this rather than the way it was performing. However, from a political and economic perspective, especially domestically, this will be causing Angela Merkel a big headache as well as ordinary German households. There must be a temptation to many to get their cash out. Such things are contagious.

Lily appreciate your wisdom on this.

having looked it up, I can't tell if the papers are being dramatic about it or if there's a real problem here a la Northern Rock? What do you think?

It's hard to know, Autumn. Deutsche Bank occupies a very different place in the domestic German economy than Northern Rock did. As far as I can see, in terms of the domestic economy, it is unthinkable that it would allowed to go under as it would affect too many German households. However, politically, Angela Merkel is between a rock and a hard place because of the rules rigorously applied to Greece when it was bailed out.

RBS was bailed out with taxpayers' money in October 2018 before the Lisbon treaty came into effect on 1 January 2009. In any case, we are not part of the eurozone.

The Greek bailout by the troika did not take place until 2013. Greece suffered dreadfully as a result of the draconian measures. To bail out Deutsche Bank would mean completely overturning the stringent rules applied ruthlessly to Greece - and wholly approved by one Angela Merkel.

The news about the Italian banks is worrying but not at all surprising. Italy has been teetering for some time and according to many economists, the ECB has pretty much run out of options.

Dan Hannan is still of the view that Brexit will prompt more exits; that Italy will be an accidental Leaver because it will fall out of the eurozone and thus the EU but that The Netherlands and Denmark have one eye on the exit because of growing Euroscepticism and the loss of a major player. I don't know how much credence to give to this but certainly, Italy's economic woes are not improving and neither is its political situation.

If some Remainers still wish to make a case for Rejoin after Friday, that's their democratic right and I wish them luck. However, they would have to make a pretty solid case for it. The EU is already a very different entity to its 2016 model and will be even more so after Friday.

Lily "To bail out Deutsche Bank would mean completely overturning the stringent rules applied ruthlessly to Greece - and wholly approved by one Angela Merkel."

ah, thank you, that's the kind of information I was looking for.

re Italy, I've been aware of that for some time - have they been kicking it into the long grass?

I also think other countries will agitate for their exits, and I completely understand why.

Afternoon all. 5 days to freedom.

Len McCluskey & Rebecca Wrong Bailey seem to have plans to kick out the moderate MPs if they win. Guess Corbyn must have missed a few.

Singing Greece is still suffering....capital controls still in place iirc.

Funnily enough, the only place that could finance a bail out of DB is....London. Perhaps that's why they are making nice to us (the Island Monkeys as they call us).

I spent a lot of time in Greece and have many friends there. I could cry for what has been done to the country in order to preserve the euro, Scary. In any case, you are right. Only the City could do it. Frankfurt hasn't quite yet cut the mustard in terms of being the EU's answer to London and the fact that Christine Lagarde is head of the ECB does not fill me with confidence.

I do not like the political construct that is the EU but I love Europe and have no wish to see any of it go under.

Italy teeters because on paper, it maintained for a long time a current account surplus but, as you know, Autumn, it has schlerotic government beset with in-fighting, coalitions and corruption. It's been surviving by the skin of its teeth for some time but just one economic shock** would be enough to knock it over - and the eurozone no longer has the firepower it would need to bail out an economy as big as Italy's. So far, luck has held, but only just.

The message on the 50p coin strikes the right note, Walking.

walking well hello 😘

Lily my neighbour’s parents are Greek and he’s told me there’s a lot anger out there. Again, all second or third hand info.

Hi Autumn

If, as Lily suggests, DB's underlying performance is sound, then a fudge will be found to smooth over the balance sheet issues. But there are several other big banks with similar balance sheet nuances. And across Europe many of the original members with Calvinist tendencies are likely to see the value of a sound money union, based on predictable tax revenues paid by the reliable worker ants, who won't fancy funding the racy grasshoppers. Obviously, this is all the product of my fevered brain.

Hi, just popped in for a quick one.

Hope everyone is well. Love that Copper.

I think the words on the 50p are perfect, couldn't be better.

I recall reading about Italian banks and DB being in trouble ages ago, will be watching with interest. If Italy ultimately exits the EU I would not be surprised.

If Matteo Salvini's far right Party win in the local elections that will be a major headache for Italy.

The message on the 50p coin strikes the right note.

Alastair Campbell on twitter doesn't agree Lily

'I for one shall be asking shopkeepers for ‘two 20p pieces and a 10’ if they offer me a 50p coin pretending that Brexit is about ‘peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations’ given it puts all three at risk.'

We really enjoyed the Gisela Stuart podcast thanks howabout.

I dont think anyone cares what Alastair Campbell thinks. Hasn't he been chucked out of the Labour party?

Hi, just got back. Cold and miserable out.

🍷please and some bar snacks.
I would love to get one of those coins. I will be looking out for one. I think the message is perfect.

The Bilt article says that our economy is equivalent of the 10 smallest EU members. So they will really miss our contribution.
I actually don't want the EU to collapse as I think it would be very damaging for everyone, the UK included. I just don't want to be a member. I hope it thrives without us.

Yes Walking, after voting libdem in the Euros.