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Politics

Please can someone explain? Will we pay if we leave EU without a deal?

580 replies

HappydaysArehere · 17/10/2017 19:53

With all this talk of billions of pounds which we are supposed to owe if we leave and talk of continuing to pay after we leave, I am in the dark. If we walk away with no deal will we pay anything like the amounts talked about? If we are able to do that surely the EU will be big losers as well as us! I am at a loss. Grateful for your input as I am bewildered. I voted to remain but must say the shenanigans being played by the EU are showing them as more like the Mafia than a democratic institution.

OP posts:
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Rufustherenegadereindeer1 · 24/10/2017 17:52

olivia

vital is referring to itsallgoing last post on the previous page

OliviaD68 · 24/10/2017 17:57

@Vitalogy

I apologise if I offended you. I don't name call when the 'other side' comes with reasonable informed factual statements. Opinions are fine when supported by facts.

But sadly in this case it wasn't to be. @M4dad was another example of a Brexiteer uttering inanities. So in my view, he warrants these appellations.

Note: I do not and nor would I ever call someone a Brexidiot or Brexshitter or thick as pigshit someone who had the facts on his or her side. Peter J North is one such individual.

So while you may think the name calling is unnecessary, I think it is. It draws attention and calls out the lies which have been told since February 2016, on both sides but mainly on the side of the Leavers. These lies are leading us to a cliff edge which has the potential to send us back 50 years - quite literally. So a little name calling to counterargue dangerous lies is a small price to pay in my view. Again, I am not challenging yours - this is not a case of needing to justify a statement with facts; you are entitled to your opinion that I was vicious (I was).

Vitalogy · 24/10/2017 19:06

I don't think it's ever warranted, it just turns people off and away.

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 24/10/2017 19:08

That's a lie, the worst he's said is the word shit

I've never seen aggressive defined as "swearing" before...

I suggest you reread back through some of the posts, Id be very surprised if you saw no aggression.

OliviaD68 · 24/10/2017 19:22

@Vitalogy:

I respect your view on this.

OpalIridescence · 24/10/2017 20:07

Started reading this thread pleased it wasn't the normal name calling and side picking rubbish these discussions tend to be.
I want to learn, want to understand the many opinions, and layers of information on this hugely important topic.

Olivia you clearly have experience, intelligence and passion on your side but I have honestly never read a more vile posting style.
The tribalism you accuse others of is hugely apparent in your attitude with the ridiculous names and assumptions you make about people who have differing opinions.
I have so much respect for your knowledge, but sadly, much less for the egotistical attitude.

OliviaD68 · 24/10/2017 20:20

@OpalIridescence

Yes, I've been accused of this many times before. I don't suffer fools; a statement made must be supported by facts. Same goes for me.

But I happily engage in informed and intelligent debate, to share what I know and learn what I don't know. And I can even be polite in doing so.

Unfortunately the Brexit debate is full of a lot of vacuous statements and nonsense which are very dangerous to our economy and future because people believe them. There is this sense that if you say something with enough confidence then it's true. No one calls the bullshit anymore.

Like the latest toxicity about WTO rules being great for the UK. These people must be called out for the scoundrels, liars, cheats, pigshit for brains that they are.

Name calling does draw attention .. but agree many can be put off.

Happy to continue this thread in a polite manner ...

Reading through my invective towards M4 guy, anything I can help clarify or which you think I might have got wrong (happy to deliver a mea culpa)?

Spinflight · 24/10/2017 20:48

"Unfortunately the Brexit debate is full of a lot of vacuous statements and nonsense which are very dangerous to our economy and future because people believe them. There is this sense that if you say something with enough confidence then it's true. No one calls the bullshit anymore."

Excellent examples on the first page where you and various other people, who all hopped onto a quiet and polite thread in an organised manner, assert that we owe money.

You haven't backed this up with reference to Article 50. In fact other than daft analogies such a divorces or phonebills there has been nothing but vacuous statements and vile nonsense.

WTO rules are clearly to the greater detriment of continental businesses than our own. Our exchequer would receive £12.7 billion a year from continental businesses and the EU about £5 billion from ours.

We currently trade with the USA on WTO rules, as they trade with us on WTO rules.

WTO rules are in fact the default position, without other trade deals to supercede them they are the norm, the accepted minimums and the legally enforceable floor.

That people should get so clearly angry and irrational over the fine details of international trade that won't affect them is curious. At most a reversion to WTO rules would see changes to the rate of change of certain imports and exports. Plying fears of catastrophe is both illogical and unfounded.

There are large multinationals which will be affected, within which where are people hired to provide insights as to global trends and changing local conditions. Within this group of double porsche owning comfortable professionals there are optimists and pessimists.

Frankly however even if the sky were due to fall do you actually think that screaming abuse is an effective way of furthering your or your employer's political objectives?

DumbledoresApprentice · 24/10/2017 21:06

We don’t trade with the US on WTO rules. The US has a number of trade deals with the EU.
A reversion to WTO rules wouldn’t be a small adjustment that most of us wouldn’t notice.

Rufustherenegadereindeer1 · 24/10/2017 21:06

employer's political objectives?

What now?

Rufustherenegadereindeer1 · 24/10/2017 21:09

Excellent examples on the first page where you and various other people, who all hopped onto a quiet and polite thread in an organised manner, assert that we owe money.

I think those posters probably thought the question was the start of a debate

DumbledoresApprentice · 24/10/2017 21:10

Also, another way of looking at your figures is:
British consumers and businesses will have to pay an extra £12.7bn in tariffs to import goods and services whilst EU consumers and businesses will pay an extra £5m.

Rufustherenegadereindeer1 · 24/10/2017 21:11

I was with happy i thought it was an interesting question

I do like to hear both sides of an argument and get a bit of balance

I am still none the wiser as it seemed to get a bit yelly in the middle

OliviaD68 · 24/10/2017 21:26

@Spinflight

Right here we go. I'm gonna be polite.

You haven't backed this up with reference to Article 50. In fact other than daft analogies such a divorces or phonebills there has been nothing but vacuous statements and vile nonsense.

*The UK has made commitments to projects and has pension commitments it must pay. We are not crooks and should stand by those commitments irrespective of what A 50 says.

Even if legally there is a case to be made there is no way this holds up politically so this argument is a red herring. The reality is we need the EU badly for a lot of things. Euratom: our power plants and hospitals ... We will pay. Whatever the EU says.

We even need the EU's acquiescence to trade under WTO. A little matter called TRQs and subsidy shares ... Look it up.More on this below.*

WTO rules are clearly to the greater detriment of continental businesses than our own. Our exchequer would receive £12.7 billion a year from continental businesses and the EU about £5 billion from ours.

*Source please.

I'm very curious to read this exercise in economic alchemy: how a massive economy like the EU27 with 8% of trade with the UK gets hurt more by WTO rules than the UK with 50% of trade with the EU.*

We currently trade with the USA on WTO rules, as they trade with us on WTO rules.

*This is a falsehood spouted by the likes of Redwood, Rees-Mogg etc.

The EU has dozens of trade agreements with the US. Look them up in the EU Treaty database here:

ec.europa.eu/world/agreements/searchByType.do?id=1

No one trades on WTO, not even Mauritania which some thought did.

So the UK would be unique. Gee,wonder why NO ONE trades under WTO rules. What do you think? 'Cause maybe they suck?*

WTO rules are in fact the default position, without other trade deals to supercede them they are the norm, the accepted minimums and the legally enforceable floor.

*Is that what you want for the UK? The minimum?

Anyway: falsehood again. Where do you get your facts? Refer to the EU treaty database ...

Do you know what a Non-Tariff Barrier is? The list of these is massive and - guess what - slows trade down massively. Look them up. We don't have these with the EU.

And the US has removed many of these NTBs via the dozens of agreements it has with the EU. We won't have these ... I can just picture the US trade negotiators with Liam Fox et al in a room ...

It is in fact the NTBs not the tariffs that are the problem. Quality standards, provenance, regulatory equivalence, compliance, list is long.*

That people should get so clearly angry and irrational over the fine details of international trade that won't affect them is curious. At most a reversion to WTO rules would see changes to the rate of change of certain imports and exports. Plying fears of catastrophe is both illogical and unfounded.

  • This is unadulaterated bollocks.

It is IMPOSSIBLE for WTO rules not to wreak havoc on this economy. Read this from the LEAVE HQ camp in respect of WTO: leavehq.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=128

Yes, these are Leavers saying WTO option is a disaster, to wit: One can say, unequivocally, that the UK could not survive as a trading nation by relying on the WTO Option. It would be an unmitigated disaster, and no responsible government should allow it. The option should be rejected.

30% of our GDP relies on imports and exports of goods and services, all of which today is NOT on WTO rules.

So think about our food ... Supposed to wait 3 weeks in Dover all of a sudden? It's great that John Redwood is going to raise hogs in his backyard and all, but that will not make the UK self sufficient in foodstuffs which we haven't been for 200 years ...

Most importantly, we will lose frictionless access to the largest GDP area on the planet, for over 50% of our exports in goods.

We become a 3rd country, with NTBs at best like Canada under CETA .... which we maybe get to implement in 10 years.

Finally with no deal, what about Euratom, Open Skies? And we're gonna get the EU to agree to continued access to these ... by walking away from our debts which you would flippantly like to repudiate?

Strikes me as a unicorn. Or perhaps you think we are in a strong position?

Maybe I did not stress this enough:

a) we need the EU to play ball in order to even trade under WTO - we must have a schedule to do this. We are a WTO member but do not have a schedule as we trade under the EU umbrella ...

b) we need other countries to accept the rejiggling of import AND export TRQs and subsidies - they are already raising a stink*

There are large multinationals which will be affected, within which where are people hired to provide insights as to global trends and changing local conditions. Within this group of double porsche owning comfortable professionals there are optimists and pessimists.

I don't even know what this drivel means.

Frankly however even if the sky were due to fall do you actually think that screaming abuse is an effective way of furthering your or your employer's political objectives?

*This is not political. It's about survival, not a belief system.

You are intent on unwittingly destroying great country for an objective that I frankly do not understand because it is based on falsehoods /misunderstandings about the EU and emotion, not fact and practicalities.*

Please can someone explain?  Will we pay if we leave EU without a deal?
OliviaD68 · 24/10/2017 21:40

@DumbledoresApprentice

I think you have that right, but I'd like to read the source to be sure.

My point is going to be it's not about tariffs and duties, but NTBs.

And it's also about relative need. We need the EU much more than the EU needs us.

HipToBeSquare · 24/10/2017 22:27

Seriously 👏 @Olivia

Rufustherenegadereindeer1 · 24/10/2017 22:32

employer's political objectives?

I still dont know what this means

OliviaD68 · 24/10/2017 22:32

@HipToBeSquare

Sorry for asking but I hope not to have offended again ? I think I was restrained?

OliviaD68 · 24/10/2017 22:33

@Rufustherenegadereindeer1

Well that makes two of us. Maybe @Spinflight will enlighten us.

Rufustherenegadereindeer1 · 24/10/2017 22:44

I doubt it Sad

OliviaD68 · 24/10/2017 22:51

Won’t hold my breath then.

Moussemoose · 24/10/2017 23:15

How come swearing is bad and telling someone they are wrong is bad and pointing out lies is bad
BUT coming on a thread telling lies, purporting to educate but rehashing DM nonsense and then presenting bigotry as reasoned argument is OK.

Personally, I am happy to be on the side of the facts and the swear words rather than flimsy arguments dressed up as debate.

The whole fucking Brexit disaster on a thread.

Spinflight · 25/10/2017 00:34

Lmao.

Please, as requested, point to where Article 50 enshrines any future payments?

Your entire diatribe falls down on this point alone, amongst many others.

So rather than the "sky is falling" you hysterically wish to paint this as a matter of national survival?

....

Survival?

Really?

Bwahahahahahahhaha.

Frankly cupcake unless your aim is to have remainerism classified by the DSM as a psychological disorder, a histrionic one, with you as the poster child, I can only class this as low grade trolling. :)

Spinflight · 25/10/2017 00:52

"Olivia you clearly have experience, intelligence and passion on your side but I have honestly never read a more vile posting style. "

Never get into a pissing contest with a skunk. ;)

Oh, look... Hobnobs.

HipToBeSquare · 25/10/2017 06:55

No you haven't @Olivia.

Anyone who says 'frankly cupcake' as a reply to your input deserves to be offended so work a way on enlightening @Spin who has tried to mainsplain respond to you by calling you histrionic and a troll.

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