Brexit consequences

[Spinflight]

Can't find the old one, despite a search. Hence a year on...

I started it to compare the doom and gloom predictions from people who should know better, especially the treasury, to actual observable facts.

Thus far the treasury predicted our borrowing costs would soar by over 130 points. In fact they're down about 100.

No trade deals possible before (I forget the date they said, was far in the future though) compared to actual negotiations beginning with the USA later this month with the president firmly behind them. Canada, New Zealand, Australia, India, South Korea and several others I've forgotten have shown a great desire for a deal quickly.

Ftse 100 and 250 are well up, just shy of 7500.

Best of all from a macro economic perspective is inflation touching 3%. When you are £1800 billion in debt rating that away with inflation is far preferable to actually paying it off.

Growth has dropped a bit, though nowhere near the instant recession that was predicted. Bit early to say though this is likely due to the referendum.

External investment is actually nicely up, with several major companies announcing various large commitments.

Things could be rosier, though it would be a struggle to describe them generally as bad, quite contrary to 'informed' opinions. Even the oecd recently ate their pre referendum words.

I'd love to be proved wrong, but the chances seem spectacularly small.

Go back to your pink and fluffy dreams of unicorns romping on sunlit uplands otherwise known as sticking your head in the sand if you like, but I'd rather put a stop to this impending idiocy, and save our country from becoming a low wage, ow tax haven for billionaires like your boss wants.

Trump is looking forward to doing a deal with us, apparently. That'll be a deal that benefits him, not us.

And now I know you're a paid troll Spinflight, because even the most staunch supporter of Brexit from an ideological standpoint acknowledges the extreme administrative and economic challenges it presents. Even the most economically illiterate and xenophobic...

But not you...because this is simply your day job

Had to come back - actually I like the idea of a Brexit dividend! Instead of £350 million to the NHS every week, why not just divvy it up and give everyone, regardless, £50 (ish) per week. Spread that around the economy and bingo! Prosperity for all.

Well obvs not the actual £350 mill, because that wasn't true. But whatever it actually is. I would spend it on health insurance...

I will put my non-existent £50 dividend towards one of my over-privileged lifestyle choices. Like food.
Every little helps!

Borntobequiet

Re your “Well obvs not the actual £350 mill, because that wasn't true.”

Forgetting for one moment that the UK governments official position was to Remain’, and that the ‘Leave’ camp was obviously trying to point out where UK taxpayer money COULD be spent when NOT supporting other EU states – and newsflash, we ain’t left yet for at least 2-years – as NOT the official government position, where do those disingenuously keep mentioning it think £350 million was coming from BY NOW, cash stashed down Boris’s boxers? .

The ‘Remainers’ like Clegg kept saying how can we leave the EU when we would lose 3 million jobs after the vote and the EU is OUR youth’s future, when clearly with any Eurozone country research they’d have found the EU wasn’t THEIR youths future, hence the pressure that put here by their youth looking for permanent jobs.

• ”They call it the “precariat”. In a continent known for strong employee protections, more than half of the eurozone’s young workers are in temporary jobs, churning from one shortlived contract to the next.”

• ”In France, permanent jobs account for just 16 per cent of new contracts, down from a quarter in 2000. In Spain, almost seven in 10 young workers are on temporary contracts. The share of the eurozone’s 15 to 24-year-old workers who are temps is the highest on record, at 52.4 per cent.”

• ”A deep fracture has emerged in Spain, France, Italy and Portugal over the past 20 years, with an older generation of highly protected permanent employees on one side and a younger generation forced to settle for insecure jobs on the other. That is one reason why youth unemployment surged when the crisis hit.”

• “The rules for open-ended contracts in Europe are considered too stringent by employers and they sidestep those regulations by creating non-regular jobs,”

It appears all the socialist parties take our youth for fools and lie through their teeth to get their vote; the Lib Dems on an EU jobs machine, the SNP that an Independent Scotland with no currency and a budget deficit ‘black hole’ could AFFORD to be independent - and now Labour looking to add another £trillion plus to our National Debt for future generations to pay off, so bribing them for votes with their own debt/money via bigger cuts later.

Now WHICH was the bigger lie, the ‘Leave’ £350 million for the NHS after we stop contributing a net £10-£13 billion a year to the EU, or the ‘Remain’ camp hiding EU unemployment rates far higher than ours - and an EU youth either jobless, or if employed mainly on Temp contracts as their older workers enjoy non-conducive to job creation, protection???

The 350 mill was disingenuous bollocks aimed at making those with little understanding of the issues and without the inclination to find out think that with Brexit that sum would be available in its entirety for the NHS. As such it worked brilliantly. It was by far the biggest lie of a sorry debate conducted poorly on both sides. The actual consequences of Brexit will probably be far worse than predicted by so-called "Project Fear".

Not predicted: Euratom, the EMA. Far worse than predicted by most: Ireland.

The 350 mill was disingenuous bollocks

Agree, they should have just put the actual amount - c£250 million per week.

Trump is looking forward to doing a deal with us, apparently. That'll be a deal that benefits him, not us.
Of course. The deal means we will have to accept their GM crops, beef treated with growth hormones, and chicken washed in chlorine. Great! :(

It appears that good news is not even possible in Remain land.

An odd place I think, with a strange and alien culture. Where we would expect a keep calm and carry on attitude to adversity, even good news results in strange and erratic displays of panic.

Whilst amusing to visit, it does become tiresome.

Why is the prospect of a US-UK trade deal necessarily good news? It is likely to be a souped-up version of the TTIP. At the time of the referendum, there were many vocal arguments from the leave side about how terrible the prospect of the EU signing the TTIP was.

One of the most telling indicators of the USA's position with regard to the UK, imho, came to light during Theresa May's visit to the White House. There she was with Trump, facing journalists, ready to answer questions about the UK-USA "special" relationship and the first two questions were, as I recall, about India and China.

Spin, good news is very possible for Remainers - that would be not leaving the EU, which would be good news for everybody in the UK (apart from a few billionaires paying your wages, obviously).

Fortunately, Brexit is not yet a fait accompli (otherwise you and the other BanksBots wouldn't be out here campaigning), so there is still time for us all to be happy

Ah, TMs trade deal with Trump...

"now WHICH was the bigger lie, the ‘Leave’ £350 million for the NHS after we stop contributing a net £10-£13 billion a year to the EU, or the ‘Remain’ camp hiding EU unemployment rates far higher than ours... ?"

Er, the bus, clearly?
The remain camp didn't "hide" EU unemployment (how???). They just didn't make a song and dance about it in their campaign (WTF would they???) If it was so relevant to the referendum, why didn't the Leave campaign put that on their side of their bus?

There were lots of different angles to cover in the Brexit referendum, and while the employment statistics in France weren't completely irrelevant (everything's connected, man), they were not a major factor in most voter's decision making. French employment statistics probably weren't even in most UK voter's top 50 concerns.

We could delve into the statistics you present, and discuss how the data is collected across different countries and who is excluded from that data; we could even argue about the precise reasons for the problems, and which economic/social policies over the last 40 years are the most responsible, but it would be a bit of a diversion, wouldn't it?

Instead, lets just accept at face value that the UK is booming compared to countries like France. Lets accept, as gospel, that the rest of the EU has serious problems with youth un-employment and youth under-employment, and that the UK does not have these issues.

The UK has been a member of the EU alongside France for decades. So, If we accept the premise above, what conclusion can we draw? Either:

A) The differences between the UK and France are down to the individual policies of the two countries, and are not a consequence of EU membership.

B) The differences can be explained by the way France and the UK have been treated by the EU, and the way the EU distributes wealth and business within the member states. Which would suggest that the UK has got rather a good deal over the last few decades, and poor old France has got the stinky end of the stick. Which flies in the face of the leaver narrative that the EU has been sucking jobs and businesses out of the UK, and that the EU unfairly prioritises the French and German economies over the UK's interests.

Which is it?

Check mate!

Dear me ...What complete and utter misinformation WAFFLE.

The £350, £250 billion (whatever) was an illustration that the £10-£13 billion NET contribution of the UK to the EU, could be better spent at home, when we NO LONGER contribute to an EU's subsidies and smaller states - still looking to expand membership to counties like Bosnia.

The FACT the 'Remainers' concentrate on misrepresenting a Leaver promise, rather than acknowledge the pee poor Eurozone unemployment rate, especially amongst their youth, says it all really.

The EU experiment was a fair economic wind lemon, that fell apart as soon as a recession hit that stopped states with dodgy credit ratings, borrowing at near German market 10-year government interest rates.

THAT is why the Eurozone STILL need mass cash injections by the European Central Bank by member state government bond buying, a QE type exercise the BoE stopped here several years ago.

Now cut the waffle, and tell be WHAT you disagree with on the above.

"Check mate"

Re the May or any UK Trade Deal.

What is the alternative, a UK currently spending around £800 billion a year on public services, welfare, pension, interest on our debt etc, under Corbyn - killing the private sector/businesses with penal tax rates going back to 1970's levels, so huge trickle down tax rises to everyone else as we saw with New Labour in their first seven years - and so BORROWING our way to SUSTAINABLE prosperity?

In other words, the economic model of some South American banana republic?

When only just over a year ago, McDonnell was promising spending/borrowing 'responsibility' - proving the Corbynisters will say anything, or shut their own party up, to get into power. lol

Oh dear, I always thought the Brexiteers had at most a tenuous relationship with logic, but it just gets worse and worse!

QE is still happening here.
The UK economy is under performing. UK productivity is low compared to other N European economies.
Many people are stuck on zero hours contracts, forced into self employment or part time work when they would prefer regular full time employment. (I know ZHC , SE and part time work suit some people.)
Inflation is going up.
Doesn't look so great to me.

You want me to cut the waffle?
What is an economic wind lemon when its at home, and what has it to do with the price of sustainably sourced fish?

You know that "remainer" is not a synonym for "Corbanysta", right?
Why are you trying to coax us into defending Corbyn's economic policies, on a thread about Brexit consequences?

Why would we concentrate on youth unemployment in France, over and above our own issues of youth employment, and public service funding?
Not that I don't think its an important issue - it is, especially for the French, but there are so many pressing issues to discuss, and there were before the referendum. I really don't think that you can take the fact that remainers don't spend hours and hours discussing youth employment in France as evidence that remainers are being dishonest, nor as proof that we don't care about the youth.

And the net contribution we paid to the EU does not take into account the economic benefits we received by being able to trade freely and easily with the huge trading block next door. Yes- we currently import more than we export, but as I said up thread increasing the cost of imports will hit UK consumers very hard indeed - especially those on lower incomes. We also benefited internationally by being part of a powerful body with a loud voice.
Sometimes, a thing can be greater than the sum of its parts.

UK consumer spending falls to lowest levels in nearly four years

The data provides ‘further evidence that an increase in the cost of living, coupled with slowing wage growth, are beginning to squeeze household disposable income’