Brexit consequences

[Spinflight]

Can't find the old one, despite a search. Hence a year on...

I started it to compare the doom and gloom predictions from people who should know better, especially the treasury, to actual observable facts.

Thus far the treasury predicted our borrowing costs would soar by over 130 points. In fact they're down about 100.

No trade deals possible before (I forget the date they said, was far in the future though) compared to actual negotiations beginning with the USA later this month with the president firmly behind them. Canada, New Zealand, Australia, India, South Korea and several others I've forgotten have shown a great desire for a deal quickly.

Ftse 100 and 250 are well up, just shy of 7500.

Best of all from a macro economic perspective is inflation touching 3%. When you are £1800 billion in debt rating that away with inflation is far preferable to actually paying it off.

Growth has dropped a bit, though nowhere near the instant recession that was predicted. Bit early to say though this is likely due to the referendum.

External investment is actually nicely up, with several major companies announcing various large commitments.

Things could be rosier, though it would be a struggle to describe them generally as bad, quite contrary to 'informed' opinions. Even the oecd recently ate their pre referendum words.

Theasauruus, Id swipe on by if I were you. Theres no arguing with stupid. Being unable to links 2 dots from 'the UKs youth employment and future is safe in EU hands' to 'but ignore what weve actually done to decimate youth employment in mainland europe', is utterly beyond the totally blinkered remainists.

Spin youre right, pro-eu sychophantism is utterly deaf and blind to reality. The end of the world is coming, havent you heard? (You have actually, hence your picked up thread in the first place. Ah, irony.)
Think its fair to say, in answer to your OP, the response is 'but but but but but........the end of the world is still coming, I dont care what reality says!'

Why are you trying to coax us into defending Corbyn's economic policies, on a thread about Brexit consequences?

Any bogeyman in a crisis, right?

It's a matter of hearing all the bad news (that is about to get worse as the reality of Brexit bites hard) and pointing away off in the distance and saying 'Hey look at that distraction!'.

It's 'Project Fear' revamped.

You have to ask yourself what does a party have to offer if the best it can come up with by way of 'argument' for its 'policies' is attempts to make the electorate believe the other guys are worse than you.

What is the alternative, a UK currently spending around £800 billion a year on public services...

Sale of said public services to friends of Donald J. Trump.
Friends of the Tory party finding a role for themselves on boards of newly privatised hospitals, etc.

If "project fear" had predicted the political turmoil that has unfolded over the last year, I would probably have thought they were exagerating:
A messy, embarrassing general election 2 years after the last one, in which voters had the choice between a Tory party run by the right wing fringes or a Labour party run by the left wing fringes, resulting in a fragile minority government backed up by the DUP. Both main parties facing the prospect of ANOTHER leadership battle. Senior cabinet ministers so busy manouvering themselves and trying to form alliances in anticipation of said leadership battle that they can't be paying full attention to the day job. The issue of Scottish independence raised again. The power sharing agreement in NI under further jeopardy, as one side (the DUP) now has very little to gain from compromising with the other. Northern Island in general, really.
And all with the clock ticking....

Britain's economy is slumping: Business output falls to a 4-year low

LONDON — The UK economy is slumping as business output falls and consumer spending continues to shrink, according to two sets of data published on Monday.

The latest BDO Output Index, which indicates how businesses expect their order books to develop over the next three months, fell to 94.9 in June from 95.4 in May, leaving business output at a four-year low.

The slump leaves UK business at the point of contraction, which is any figure below 95.0.

Hello stagflation.

But but but...everything is growing according to Spin!

Bornetobequiet

Re your extraordinary "QE is still happening here.
The UK economy is under performing. UK productivity is low compared to other N European economies.
Many people are stuck on zero hours contracts, forced into self employment or part time work when they would prefer regular full time employment. (I know ZHC , SE and part time work suit some people.)
Inflation is going up.
Doesn't look so great to me."

Again a complete failure to look at the EU lemon vs our economy.

• QE stopped here several years ago, or what BoE bond buying are you seeing?

• Productivity is low vs other countries who do not have our employment rates etc, explain why you think that it is when the BoE don't know - but I suspect was due to the fat State, 2 million less manufacturing job that New Labour put together - and Corbyn want to repeat on steroids.

• Re Zero Hour contracts that began in the late 1990s, Labour didn't even seem to acknowledge (as I don't see any figures of contracts over that time), never mind show they wanted to reform, even in their 2010 general election manifesto - and only become a PROBLEM when the Conservatives cam in - how Labour typical.

Many people want Zero Hours Labour wants to now ban, and do you seriously see a comparison with 52% of the Eurozone youth on Temp Contracts???

• Re Self Employment, what are your figures for those that want to self employed in a low tax regime ENCOURAGING entrepreneurship, and those 'forced' into it???

• Re slowing growth, all HM opposition parties including so called Labour's respect for the Referendum results want to both side with EU negotiators and slow down Brexit in Westminster, we also came close to a Marxist government with an anti capitalist Chancellor who cheered the crash - is it any wonder UK businesses will slow down investment/growth?

Mathanxiety .... I can understand why.

For a UK spending currently £800 billion a YEAR on all our services etc, your "alternative" was;

^"Sale of said public services to friends of Donald J. Trump.
Friends of the Tory party finding a role for themselves on boards of newly privatised hospitals, etc."^

I'm sorry, you cannot sell the same land every year to pay our current bills, never mind Corbyn's massive increases in government spending.

If you want to look at the last Labour government, look how many Labour apparatchiks went on the boards and management of Labour's then newly formed Quangos, costing 10 of ££billions that could have bee better spent.

And who is going to run the yet to be costed newly privatised rail, mail, electricity and gas services in Labour's manifesto - a winning combo of new Labour quangocrats and trade union bosses - and will they have the "1 million new decent paid government jobs" to play with?

So we'll have the COST of buying back whatever services that takes new Old Labour's fancy, and due to the costs of running services Labour's way (whether in the size of fat government or need for fatter salried quangos to make decisions for them) - the UK taxpayer will end up pumping in ever increasing money every year, no doubt through ever higher taxes, that like the last 13-years, could have been better spent.

A government cannot tax an economy to growth, yet that is the 'alternative' showing whether by 1979 or 2010, Labour never learns its lessons.

P.S. How will higher taxes and other costs of doing business help Productivity in Labour world, as if you look up the definition, McDonnells policies of higher taxes, higher wages even in struggling companies, a trade union in EVERY workplace, all as interest rates could rise higher and faster under Marxism, will pan hole UK productivity to company destruction. Discuss.

Hands up anyone currently concerned on UK growth, who thinks Labour's 2017 general election manifesto, that lets face it, according to Corbyn's own words could be 'live' from September general election on - will promote sustainable UK private sector and country growth?

Then explain how a Corbyn and McDonnell's Labour who hate 'profits', could then both implement policies to seriously damage company profits, and build all new extra spending plans on those company profits via Corporate Tax (only paid when in profit) - at the same time?

"Many people want Zero Hours Labour wants to now ban, and do you seriously see a comparison with 52% of the Eurozone youth on Temp Contracts???"

You know that we could still set our own laws on this, either in or out of the EU?
Do you think that there is a possibility to improve the problem of zero hours through regulation? Do you think this would be a good thing?
The EU sets MINUMUM standards, individual countries are free to go above and beyond them. In fact, if you are so concerned about the rights of Eurozone youth, we could have used our influence within the EU to improve their rights and protections, alongside our own. But not now, obviously.

I always had and preferred zero hours. Working in my industry it was fine. Happy to be one of the 3% yes 3% ffs of the country on zero hours. Before the previous Labour government I was self employed the last round of work place interfering forced us to become employed. I was at one point 'employed' by eight different employers on zero hours fucking stupid.

I always had and preferred zero hours. Working in my industry it was fine. Happy to be one of the 3% yes 3% ffs of the country on zero hours. Before the previous Labour government I was self employed the last round of work place interfering forced us to become employed. I was at one point 'employed' by eight different employers on zero hours fucking stupid.

Trump is looking forward to doing a deal with us, apparently. That'll be a deal that benefits him, not us.

Of course. The deal means we will have to accept their GM crops, beef treated with growth hormones, and chicken washed in chlorine. Great!

Why will it mean that?

It will mean that because the EU restrictions on importing US food won't apply. Because of Brexit.
US food production has very low welfare and quality standards. I mean, really low. Not hippy idealism low.

"Zero hours" also covers a VERY broad range of situations - from a very highly paid consultant type of professional, through to a delivery driver/cyclist. Its all about power, imo; a highly skilled worker in high demand may enjoy many positives from zero hour contracts, because they can have things on their terms. However, a low paid worker with widely held skills in competition with many others for a limited amount of work will be very easily exploited. I think it will be hard to legislate in a way that protects those on the lower end, yet still allows those on the other end to continue benefiting from the freedom of zero hours, without damaging business too much. It will be difficult, but not impossible, I think. And we should at least try.

3% of the country matters! That's a lot of people.

It will mean that because the EU restrictions on importing US food won't apply. Because of Brexit.
US food production has very low welfare and quality standards. I mean, really low. Not hippy idealism low.

Why can't we set/negotiate the standards and restrictions we want on food in the same way as the EU does with imports from USA? Why does having an individual trade deal equal chlorinated chickens?

release because most USA food is produced to their lower standards. So either we accept those standards or we don't have the trade that we could with them. They aren't going to increase their standards to suit our tiny market.
In terms of export, we can't compete with their farmers on price unless we also lower our standards. So we all eat beef fed with growth hormones. Yum.

You can also apply this to GM food, colours used in textile dye, environmental standards, medicine safety, all sorts.

We can do that in theory Releasethebats but because we are a smaller country/market and we are in a weaker bargaining position; the US may not agree to our demands. That is why it is better to be in a group of 28 countries which together have more clout and stronger bargaining powers.

And anyway what is the point of leaving and having all the upset, expense and uncertainty in order to aim for the same standards that the EU already have - when in reality we will probably never be able to have as good a deal as we have now?

I'm not totally convinced that shipping beef from the UK to USA or vice versa is really the way to go. Its environmentally incredibly wasteful. We can choose to buy British meat if we want British farming standards. I'm also not totally convinced that no USA companies would work to higher standards to export to the UK if higher standards were agreed as part of the trade deal. Companies do so for specific markets, eg organic, Fairtrade.

And anyway what is the point of leaving and having all the upset, expense and uncertainty in order to aim for the same standards that the EU already have - when in reality we will probably never be able to have as good a deal as we have now?

Because we are not just leaving the EU because of trade deals and standards?

Also, if we go for "hard" Brexit, we will be in the rather dire position of having no trade agreements all in place and everyone else in the world knowing this. There will be political pressure for the UK to close deals quickly, which would put us in a weak negotiating position. We would probably have to accept whatever crumbs the US want to throw us.

squishy I agree with you that the zero hours contract world is very variable, and I think it is not all the dire situation some try to paint it as. I believe quite a few pieces of research have shown that the majority of workers on zhc are happy on them.

Yes, we should produce more food ourselves. However ramping up food production on such a huge scale will take time, political effort and money. You can't click your fingers and magic up another large scale cattle farm. You can't flick a switch and convert a large tract of land (possibly owned by a developer and ear marked for housing) into potatoes just like that.