Brexit consequences

[Spinflight]

Can't find the old one, despite a search. Hence a year on...

I started it to compare the doom and gloom predictions from people who should know better, especially the treasury, to actual observable facts.

Thus far the treasury predicted our borrowing costs would soar by over 130 points. In fact they're down about 100.

No trade deals possible before (I forget the date they said, was far in the future though) compared to actual negotiations beginning with the USA later this month with the president firmly behind them. Canada, New Zealand, Australia, India, South Korea and several others I've forgotten have shown a great desire for a deal quickly.

Ftse 100 and 250 are well up, just shy of 7500.

Best of all from a macro economic perspective is inflation touching 3%. When you are £1800 billion in debt rating that away with inflation is far preferable to actually paying it off.

Growth has dropped a bit, though nowhere near the instant recession that was predicted. Bit early to say though this is likely due to the referendum.

External investment is actually nicely up, with several major companies announcing various large commitments.

Things could be rosier, though it would be a struggle to describe them generally as bad, quite contrary to 'informed' opinions. Even the oecd recently ate their pre referendum words.

I am not talking about low wage increases. I am talking about scenes reminiscent of the Great Depression, with the added elements of angry Leavers taking to the streets when the jam they were promised fails to materialise, and renewed civil war in Northern Ireland.

Mathsanxiety

Re your earlier combination of making EU excuses for not mirroring the successes of the far East and the similar to EU ‘objectives’ of the ASEAN nations references, with their (not EU similar?) plentiful (and cheap) labour, and other ‘dastardly’ advantages synonymous with the West when they industrialised in the 19th century.

With;
”Outside of China, and India, there are the ASEAN countries.”

”Does any of that sound familiar?”

Firstly, the Europhile sitting on some moral EU socialist high horse, while fast growing economies elsewhere take the Wests manufacturing ‘lunch money’, is so EU – rather than looking to AT LEAST adapt to bring EU/Eurozone costs of doing business down, with less restrictive labour laws, taxes as low as they need to be, and as low administration/rules/regs hindrance to businesses as possible.

Hence despite Juncker's acknowledging its decline in global market share (see his confession on the previous page), the EU is more focused on integration, enlargement, and so ever more reliant on trade between member States e.g 7-years to put a trade deal together with Canada.

The EU’s model of transferring wealth from larger Member States to smaller, emerging, and accession states to come, is NOTHING like the economic/social model of those ASEAN countries you mention as similar to the EU, or the ‘Tiger’ economies below – as where is THEIR political objective to form a Federal State – run by a small army of bureaucrats with no business experience, as member states lose their power of veto, and so their individuality?

”Four Asian Tigers – Wikipedia”

”The Four Asian Tigers or Four Asian Dragons, are the wealthy high-tech industrialized developed countries of Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong (China) and South Korea, which underwent rapid industrialization, technological innovation and development and also maintained exceptionally high growth rates (in excess of 7-8 percent a year) between the mid-1950s and early 1990s.”

Nowhere in the Far East I can see is an effort to synchronise their economies into a non competitive ‘gloop’ that will only help those in the EU with already large market shares, like a Germany now running the EU show with a French wing-man aspiring to hold on to their competitive coat tails, with v unpopular labour, and other reforms of his own.

The Far East success story was based on economic competition, across nations and industries, which is why the EU could have a slow death, with the likes of a uniform Corporate Tax set higher to help the larger nations and their net EU contributions liabilities, rather than the small to medium sized economies needing an economic ‘edge’.

Mathsanxiety

"I am not talking about low wage increases. I am talking about scenes reminiscent of the Great Depression, with the added elements of angry Leavers taking to the streets when the jam they were promised fails to materialise, and renewed civil war in Northern Ireland."

No 'Project Fear' there then, sweet cheeks, no doubt when all EU trade comes to a standstill and an EU that sells far more stuff to us then we do to them (especially their solid stuff rather than services) does not rise up against their masters?

If you looked at the EU problems, there is more of a indication of a future 'The Hunger Games' problem than here.

Where populism has not gone (its just simmering), those in jobs won't sacrifice their 'rights' for those out of a job, there is an immigrant crisis, several accession States waiting to join the EU, and a Eurozone 'one interest rate and currency fits all 19 countries' model that CANNOT work once emergency QE is stopped/reversed and interest rates 'normalise'.

Clearly the UK has Brexit transitional uncertainties (and thank feck it currently isn't into a fat UK state feeding on itself scaring businesses away) but what with all of the above AND the amount of money, time and effort the EU/Brussel's plan for a more integrated Eurozone will take up with cash and promises 'goody bags' for all those nations that object - our uncertainties are nothing to the EU's, who will soon have a Euro 20 billion UK budget shortfall for their inter member 'orse trading.

...the Europhile sitting on some moral EU socialist high horse, while fast growing economies elsewhere take the Wests manufacturing ‘lunch money’, is so EU – rather than looking to AT LEAST adapt to bring EU/Eurozone costs of doing business down, with less restrictive labour laws, taxes as low as they need to be, and as low administration/rules/regs hindrance to businesses as possible.

Workers' rights, adequate social services and regulation, and a concern to preserve the environment are a moral EU socialist high horse ?

Food banks it is, so, when your preferred politicians get their wish of a hard Brexit. The UK does not have the education system to create the sort of technological wonder-economy that you think can be picked up and set down lock, stock and barrel elsewhere.

Your formula is a recipe for a Dickensian society.

(And the EU won't be propping up the failing regions of the UK any more, so that will produce considerable savings.)

Here are a few recommendations from the World Bank for economies in SE Asia:
www.worldbank.org/en/region/eap/publication/east-asia-pacific-economic-update
"- In China, the government can sustain its efforts to reduce corporate debt and restructure state-owned enterprises, tighten the regulation of shadow banking and address rising household mortgage debt. Reforms to reduce excess industrial capacity could be complemented with improved social transfers and labor policies.

• With credit growth remaining high across much of the region, including Vietnam, the Philippines and Lao PDR, the report suggests an emphasis on strengthening regulation and enhancing supervision.

• The longer-term challenge for the region lies in sustaining rapid growth while ensuring greater inclusion. Governments can address these challenges by increasing productivity and investment, which have slowed recently in several economies, as well as by improving the quality of public spending.

• In the face of rising protectionism outside the region, East Asia can seize opportunities to advance regional integration, including by deepening ongoing initiatives, lowering barriers to labor mobility and expanding cross-border flows of goods and services within the ASEAN Economic Community.

• Policy makers can put future economic prospects on a more sustainable path if they take steps to reduce pollution caused by farming, a rising threat amid the intensification of agriculture in the region."

Pretty much the opposite of your vision of the UK therefore.
Let me remind you of the ASEAN reference -
...advance regional integration, including by deepening ongoing initiatives, lowering barriers to labor mobility and expanding cross-border flows of goods and services within the ASEAN Economic Community...

Ring a bell at all?

At what point in all your doom and gloom have you gotten so into your UK bashing that reality has been bypassed by your need to forecast a fear of the poor begging in the streets.
Do you really not think we have a government who will have to adapt to the future as it unfolds, we have been through bad times before in this country and come out the other side. this is how any different.
You can spout fact and figures as you see them, and project this and that, but in the long run we all have no true idea.
And should we still have stayed in we would still be facing an uncertain time trying to prop up an EU that is starting to grasp the sheer amount of new recruits it now has to pay for.

Mathsanxiety

Re your rather pathetic attempt at showing there have not been any changes to to UK over the past several years in education and tech industries with;

"Food banks it is, so, when your preferred politicians get their wish of a hard Brexit. The UK does not have the education system to create the sort of technological wonder-economy that you think can be picked up and set down lock, stock and barrel elsewhere."

"Your formula is a recipe for a Dickensian society."

Instead of focusing and committing taxpayer £billions on nationalising and the running the old rail, mail. electricity and gas, paid for by putting taxes up on the private sector, under a business friendly government the UK across our regions, including Belfast and Edinburgh - are seeing a tech boom, and far bigger than in your highly educated France and Germany.

”Tech sector growing faster than UK economy with 72pc of investment outside London, report says”

”Theresa May has described the technology industry as a "great British success story" after a report revealed that investment in digital businesses spread across the country last year.”

”Expanding its reach beyond London, 72pc of venture capital and private equity investment went to regional businesses in 2016, amounting to £9.2bn, according to the third annual Tech Nation report.”

”The report revealed the UK leads in Europe, attracting £28bn in technology investment since 2011, compared with £11bn in France and £9.3bn in Germany.”

”With talent and investment pouring into the sector, it has grown to be a major contributor to the UK economy. The digital economy, which is growing at twice the rate of the wider economy, now contributes around £97bn a year, up 30pc in five years, according to the report.”

”Assuaging (Brexit) fears, Gerard Grech, chief executive Tech City UK, which authored the report, said British universities have contributed significantly to the growth of regional tech companies, and will continue to do so.”

So why not do yourself a favour and reexamine your 'EU only poops roses' and the UK is a disaster constant prattle - as the facts often makes you look 'uneducated'.

At what point in your inhaling of balloon juice have you decided that realistic forecasts of what is going to happen to the UK when it is adrift without trade agreements should be called 'UK bashing', Mummy?

Do you really not think we have a government who will have to adapt to the future as it unfolds, we have been through bad times before in this country and come out the other side.
If this government and future governments adapt to the future 'as it unfolds', then God help you.
Responsible governments do not 'adapt to the future as it unfolds' FFS. They use facts and figures (which you despise or cannot appreciate thanks to large gaps in your education) to project the future, and they prepare with realistic plans. They do this because they have vital social services to provide, and because they have a population to feed.

• Is the bribing of Arlene Foster's DUP with £2 billion an example of adapting to the future as it unfolds?

As for 'we have been through bad times before' - another silly banality. The UK is turning its back on the opportunities of a huge trading bloc and will be going cap in hand seeking markets and trade deals with the US, China, and the economies of SE Asia, throwing UK workers into direct competition with workers who make next to nothing per hour, many in sweatshops. The only way the UK can survive the bad times that lie ahead (as revenue from the City falls through the floor and alternatives are struggling or at development stage) is by raising personal income tax exponentially and selling off public services such as the NHS, operating a bare bones public medicine service for the poorest and expecting everyone else to fund private health insurance or do pay as you go consumption of healthcare. Education funding is going to drop - bye bye 'Singapore on the Thames'.

The figures Thea and the Torygraph base the breathless account of tech investment on were compiled by London and Partners, a PR firm that promotes London as a place to do business. Sorry to bust your bubble here, but the investment in tech will not survive curtailment of freedom of movement for EU nationals, and it will be dealt a body blow by immigration controls that put off potential Asian immigration. The PM has already indicated that she is not prepared to do a trade deal with India that involves Indian nationals moving to the UK to work (in tech, medicine, engineering, etc).
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-12/data-suggests-brexit-failed-to-knock-tech-investment-in-u-k

And you should be very careful what you wish for -
Digital tech workers are helping to boost the wider UK economy through higher productivity levels per worker. The GVA of a digital tech worker is now 2X higher than a non-digital worker, (£103,000 compared to £50,000). This productivity gap has grown from £48,000 to £53,000 over the last five years – further evidence of the significant value that the digital tech sector is adding to the broader UK economy.
technation.techcityuk.com/

The productivity gap is really important. Non-digital employment still accounts for the vast majority of income. If tech growth remains high and the downward trend in other sectors continues, a divide will emerge that will have repercussions on the tax base and hence there will be pressure on social services and infrastructure funding (remember, no more EIB or EU social fund...) Have the former mining and steel areas bounced back after Margaret Thatcher destroyed them? I think not, but you might like to check. Do you realise what a falling Pound will do to the food and necessities purchasing power of people who have very little already?

And while growth rates may be high, revenue is another story: consultancy firm Deloitte has published its Technology Fast 50, which charts the 50 most rapidly growing tech companies in the UK. Their combined annual revenue is a relatively modest £672m but the average five-year growth rate is 1,382%
www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/nov/17/britain-top-10-tech-startups
(Figures from before Brexit and the attendant uncertainty about how welcome foreign talent and expertise will be in the UK after 2019.)

You do not have a crystal ball.
You can not know for sure any of this.
You select bits to hammer home a point, and miss bits out that may show a different side, I believe this is called Bias.
We all know your so Remain you can't face a future with anything less than doom and gloom, so all you say no matter how much info you give is viewed as spiteful and slanted to that view of any Brexit deal...
Shame on you.
It's a bloody good job we have a Government instead of I think I know best mumsnet in charge,

Mathsanxiety

Re your;
” Pretty much the opposite of your vision of the UK therefore.”

”Let me remind you of the ASEAN reference –“

”...advance regional integration, including by deepening ongoing initiatives, lowering barriers to labor mobility and expanding cross-border flows of goods and services within the ASEAN Economic Community..."

“Ring a bell at all?”

No not at all, as there is no central body of unelected bureaucrats making up all the rules from ASEAN member country debt-to-GDP to the shape of their bananas, that they all have to adhere to.

• Clearly the ASEAN objectives are closer the founding EEC/Common Market (whatever) ‘trade model’, and would say if you asked any of those countries do they think such an unelected body should rule one country, never mind 28, they’d laugh at you.

• Of the approx 600 million people across the ten ASEAN member countries (Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam), how many have the right to ‘Freedom of Movement’ between member countries?

• If they DID have Freedom of Movement between ASEAN member State, spot the similarity between them and the EU’s 28 to 33 future member mix of ‘mature’ economies, emerging economies and waiting accession countries – in other words, its unlikely that there would be mass worker flows to one or two countries doing far better than the rest at any given time - especially as their most mature economy, Singapore – doesn’t have a population much bigger than that of Scotland.

• As a region, ASEAN has dramatically outpaced the rest of the world in growth of GDP per capita since the late 1970s. Income growth has remained strong since 2000 – now compare that to the growth of the Eurozone members since the launch of a common currency Euro - as from what I see the majority of those (Eurozone) countries haven’t even outperformed the UK, and non ‘Single Market’ countries like America, Australia and Canada, never mind the emerging ASEAN block.

So what ‘rings a bell’ with me, is if the EU stuck to its original model of a several mature country Common Market, or had the sense to ADAPT that evolving ‘4 pillar rules’ model to take into account the very different economies from highly industrial Germany, the deck chair economies, and accession states just evolved from carts being powered by donkeys – they wouldn’t now be desperate to integrate (with own Eurozone parliament) to help ‘protect’ those founder members, from the monster they created. IMO

Proof the Eurozone ‘vision’ Is falling apart, as open squabbles on ‘the EU way’ break out, often between founder western European countries with the newer eastern European countries, INCLUDING how member countries interpret ‘freedom of movement’ in their own national interests.

France’s President Macron trying to bring in labour reforms at home to boost French employment and investment (needing domestic trade union support), is obviously looking to ‘revamp’ the rules for French interests – how very protectionist French France is that.

”Macron Tells Poland It’s Headed for the ‘Margins’ of Europe”

”French President Emmanuel Macron sharply criticized Poland Friday, saying Prime Minister Beata Szydlo’s opposition to a revamp of European Union rules on cheap labor is one of numerous policies that are marginalizing her country.”

”Speaking in Bulgaria’s Black Sea port of Varna at the beginning of a European diplomatic blitz, Macron campaigned to end the “social dumping” that he says occurs when workers from low-wage countries are hired in other EU nations at their own pay levels for extended periods. He wants to shorten the period for the exemption.”

”Szydlo issued a sharp response, telling a Polish website that Macron’s comments were “arrogant” and seek to “split” the EU. She reiterated that her government won’t stop defending the rights of Polish workers, arguing that Macron’s proposals would breach fundamental EU principles of free movement of labor and services.”

Mummy - do you know anything at all about how governments plan? It may not be all that apparent in the UK, but most other governments take stock of projections - because they are not wild guesses - and do evidence based planning for the future. An example is Ireland setting up a layer of third level technical colleges in the 60s-70s and on to the 90s that are now degree-granting institutions, in order to produce a workforce that could hop aboard the tech train and transform the economy.

And all that is proof of, Thea is that the EU is not a monolithic bloc from which the UK is lucky to have wrested sovereignty before being subsumed into a United States of Europe. The UK has always had easily enough rope to hang itself with, and has done so in spades.

An unelected body of bureaucrats does not rule over 27 states of the EU, Thea.

Did you read that claim on the side of a bus?

Your claim:
its unlikely that there would be mass worker flows to one or two countries doing far better than the rest at any given time - especially as their most mature economy, Singapore – doesn’t have a population much bigger than that of Scotland.

Reality:
^Immigration to Singapore is historically the main impetus for population growth in the country since the founding of modern Singapore in the early 19th century. Immigration and immigrant workers in Singapore have been closely associated with the Singapore's economic development. For a long period after its founding the majority of its population were immigrants; it was not until around the 1930s that the number of native births in Singapore would overtake net immigration. After its expulsion from Malaysia in 1965, immigration laws were modified in 1966 to reinforce Singapore's identity as a sovereign state. However, the initial strict controls on immigrant workers were relaxed as demand for labour grew with increased industrialisation. Immigration would again become the largest contributor to population increase in Singapore in the late 20th century and early 21st century..

.....The high level of foreign migrant workers in late 20th and early 21st centuries meant that Singapore has one of the highest percentages of foreigners in the world. By the middle of the 2010s, nearly 40% of the population were estimated to be of foreign origin; although many have become permanent residents, most of them were non-citizens made up of foreign students and workers including dependents.[14] Between 1970 and 1980, the size of the non-resident population in Singapore doubled. The numbers began to increase greatly from 1980 to 2010. Foreigners constituted 28.1% of Singapore's total labour force in 2000, to 34.7% in 2010,[15] which is the highest proportion of foreign workers in Asia. Singapore's non-resident workforce increased 170% from 248,000 in 1990 to 670,000 in 2006 (Yeoh 2007). By 2010, the non-resident workforce had reached nearly 1.09 million, of these 870,000 were low-skilled foreign workers in Singapore; another 240,000 were skilled foreign worker, better-educated S-pass or employment pass holders. Malaysia is the main source of immigrants in Singapore (386,000 in 2010), followed by China, Hong Kong, and Macau, then South Asia, Indonesia, and other Asian countries.[15] As of June 2014, the total population of Singapore stands at 5.47 million: 3.34 million citizens and 0.53 million permanent residents (total resident number 3.87 million), with 1.60 million non-residents with work passes and foreign students.[16]

In Singapore, the term immigrant workers is separated into foreign workers and foreign talents. Foreign workers refers to semi-skilled or unskilled workers who mainly work in the manufacturing, construction, and domestic services sectors. The majority of them come from places such as People's Republic of China [1], Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, and Thailand, as part of bilateral agreements between Singapore and these countries. Foreign talent refers to foreigners with professional qualifications or acceptable degrees working at the higher end of Singapore's economy. They mostly come from India, Australia, the Philippines, People's Republic of China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Europe, New Zealand and the United States
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Singapore

You must not have encountered many natives of the Philippines on your travels -
Few countries have as many of their citizens living abroad as the Republic of the Philippines, or depend so greatly on migration for their economic vitality. According to the government, more than 7.3 million Filipinos, or eight percent of the country's population, currently reside abroad. From 1990 to 2001, official recorded remittances alone averaged 20.3 percent of the country's export earnings and 5.2 percent of GNP, providing a lifeline for many families in a poor country that saw little economic growth in several of those years.

However impressive, these figures understate the role that migration plays in Filipino national culture and public policy. For more than 25 years, export of temporary labor has been an explicit response to double-digit unemployment rates. The government has developed a sophisticated policy regime to promote and regulate labor emigration.

Mathsanxiety

Still smelling the 'EU rose garden' with your purple prose looking to deceive?

Singapore has under 6 million in their population, and how many from Europe have settled here in the last 17-years, never mind the push from 2004, 2.5 to 3 million?

So is there 'Freedom of Movement' between the 600 million population of the ASEAN countries? YES or NO?

If no, how on earth is the ASEAN immigration system, never mind their superior growth (relative to the EU) similar to the EU?

As far as I can see the ASEAN countries collective success story is an economic one similar to the EU original ‘Common Market’ model, as there is no attempt to either be a political ‘Collective’ with Borg Queen’s in their equivalent of Brussels, or ‘open borders’ – and so trying to confuse the Visa immigration needs of most countries e.g. the ASEAN ones, with the sheer ANNUAL uncertainty of worker movements with the EU ‘Freedom of Movement’ model – is disingenuous AT BEST.

Mathsanxiety

"- Is the bribing of Arlene Foster's DUP with £2 billion an example of adapting to the future as it unfolds?"

A coalition tends to have a price, what was the SNP price to Labour, as I remember Salmond's bill was closer to £80 billion and bragged that HE would write Labour's first Budget.

Sturgeons was obviously to talk about Independence after the general election despite the unionist Labour manifesto pledge, and where were these £tens of billions she said she'd 'free up' after the election - as where was that money before hand?

In your beloved Germany, leader of the EU, they are in a Coalition and expect to be in a new coalition after September 24th (that could take a few months to ‘sort’) and how much investment could those coalitions partners ask for?

If memory serves Germany has been in coalitions for much of the past 40-years or so.

Are you against coalitions, just UK ones, or were you just trying to score a cheap political point?

It's not a coalition.

It's a blatant case of bribery, where the DUP gets to distribute two billion on its favourite pet projects and its favourite pet peoples' pockets with no oversight from Westminster (because NI has a devolved government) or from the devolved government (because it is not sitting and won't be for the foreseeable because the DUP knows the Tories can't force it to compromise on Irish language rights or an investigation into a disastrous fuel payment scheme run by Arlene Foster).

It should be a major concern for UK taxpayers that £2 billion is about to disappear down a black hole, while the NHS limps along, and the dysfunctional welfare system throws families on the mercy of food banks.

I have nothing against coalitions. They are legitimate governments and are accountable. But a backroom agreement with the DUP, which fields no candidates in Britain, and has a lock on the constituencies it holds in NI thanks to the divide along sectarian lines there, is not a coalition, and the DUP are not at all accountable to the people whose money it has been handed.

I don't know what you are trying to say about Europeans settling in Singapore. Whatever - it is irrelevant.

Silence on the topic of Philippine migration all over the world, I see...

Again, this is what the World Bank recommends for ASEAN:
- In the face of rising protectionism outside the region, East Asia can seize opportunities to advance regional integration, including by deepening ongoing initiatives, lowering barriers to labor mobility and expanding cross-border flows of goods and services within the ASEAN Economic Community.
This is a C&P from a World Bank document, which I linked.

I will repeat - advancing regional integration is encouraged, increased labour mobility is encouraged, expanding trade within ASEAN is encouraged.

These are all elements the World Bank wants to see happening, because it wants to see increased prosperity in the ASEAN community. The elements that are being suggested as a means to greater prosperity are a step up from the old EEC model.

These elements are all present in the EU.

Maths give it a bloody rest, we all are only playing lets pretend we know what will happen.
You are giving your opinion, but if it was worth more than the paper it was written on you would be in No,10 doing the work.
Your not are you, so it's all just you saying I think, I know, I want,
I GUESS.
Have you always had this need to ram your option down peoples throats, even if it has more style than substance.
Maybe you need a hobby in the Real World.

I do know what will happen. You do not. Unlike you, I give experts my close attention and I do not believe in fairy tales.

Even Boris Johnson - part of the government that is allegedly 'in charge' right now - was gobsmacked when the Leave vote won, and his journo wife wrote an account of the Leave campaign only seeking to stir things up (and possibly create an opening for BJ to become PM) not to actually win, because winning would be a disaster.

Mathsanxiety

Re your DUP and Conservative

”It's not a coalition.”

”It's a blatant case of bribery, where the DUP gets to distribute two billion on its favourite pet projects and its favourite pet peoples' pockets with no oversight from Westminster (because NI has a devolved government) or from the devolved government (because it is not sitting and won't be for the foreseeable because the DUP knows the Tories can't force it to compromise on Irish language rights or an investigation into a disastrous fuel payment scheme run by Arlene Foster).”

What political ignorance, do you have anything other than your spiteful propaganda?

Firstly on the DUP, based on your own argument the £2billion is for Northern Island’s devolved government, not the DUP to spend, and when Sinn Fein stops throwing a hissy fit on their demands to get rid of the DUP leader, and quite how someone ‘compromises on’ the Irish language (surely you have it, or don’t) – that devolved Irish government can allocate that money.

Next, as I said the DUP-Conservative agreement is a loose coalition, with the object of ensure that the Labour & SNP parties (that courted a full blown, expensive coalition) do not repeat what they did from 2010, and saying they will do since the last general election, and OPPOSE everything in Westminster a minority Tory government proposes – for their OWN political gain.

The actual term for the DUP and Conservative alliance (if you prefer) is called a ‘Confidence and Supply’ arrangement.

”What does ‘confidence and supply’ mean?”

”The Institute of Government says confidence deals “typically make clear that the support party or parties must back the government on explicit confidence votes, and votes on budgets and supply (government spending). In return, the support parties are given government support for specific policy priorities.”

”The most recent example in Westminster politics was the Lib-Lab pact of 1977-78 between Jim Callaghan and David Steel. It lasted only 18 months.”

So far from being a DUP bribe, the arrangement is to ensure important legislation gets throw Westminster rather than grind the UK to a halt, especially useful if the opposition are, in parliamentary terms, being political cocks.

P.S. The last example was via Labour’s Callaghan’s government, so maybe under a Corbyn/McDonnell opposition to the similar DUP arrangement, the added incentive to diss the DUP, is their very tight relationship with Sinn Fein, going back decades.

you don't look at the poverty/food crisis in Italy, far worse than here

Why do you think that?

EUanxiety

Re EU versus ASEAN 'similarities'

As mummy sez, give it up.

Your pathetic attempt to compare the current EU (and by inference the future Federal direction) with the more 'Common market' ASEAN agreement and performance, was busted, why not try ADDRESSING the salient points I made above, rather than regulating World Bank words that do not.

There is no ASEAN central command, no Common Currency involved, or 600 million citizen 'Freedom of Movement', the Euro having slowed Eurozone growth since inception (especially against ASEAN growth), and the free movement causing large movements/friction between the mature Western European economies and the evolving Eastern European ones - which can only get worse when the 5-6 accession countries e.g. Bosnia, with a green light waiting to join from around 2020 onward, come into the EU club.

The FACT is you backed yourself into a corner, as the ASEAN economies arrangement is far closer to the original European 'Common Market' concept - but in your Brussels governemnt 'EU can only poop fragrant roses' - you can't ever wake up and smell any coffee.

allegro

Re Italian poverty.

I did see more up to date figures recently that showed over 25% were in some definition of poverty, but as the likes of Google is free for all to use, and I can't be 'asked' to find it on a Bank Holiday, here is a 2015 link on the {{http://www.ansa.it/english/news/politics/2015/02/19/over-one-in-four-risk-poverty-in-italy_6f735492-bdbd-4909-afbb-e5cbeb6de896.html Italian]] poverty issue - that seems both structural e.g. needs less restrictive labour reforms,and accounts for little growth since adopting the Euro.

Whatever, for those Europhiles who think food banks do not exist in the EU, welcome to Italy, that up until a few years ago, was for a while a larger economy than the UKs.

As Mr Gump said, 'that's all I've got to say about that'.

Sorry on link above;

"Over one in four risk poverty in Italy"

Re: Italian poverty. It is not as clearcut as you are trying to make out. Italy has a huge submerged economy - a lot of "unemployed" people are actually in work. Very few people are in food poverty because the poorest areas also tend to have low food prices and strong family networks also mean that people have better nutrition on the whole. Of course it does exist but not to the extent the statistics might suggest at a cursory glance. Did you know that household debt is more or less in a par with Germany? Most Italian families have savings (partly because 100% mortgages are unheard of) which mean they are far more "cushioned" against unemployment than British families. In the UK a lot of families (5 million people I believe but don't have the research to hand) have no savings and no access to overdraft facilities! They really live on a precipice where the slightest change in fortune can be devastating. Now I am not trying to say Italy is perfect but it is a hell of a lot better off than people often try to make out in these arguments. It is certainly not in the same position as Greece which it often gets lumped together with.

So you are a Tory who thinks the sun shines forth from Arlene Foster's ample arse, Thea.

I should have known.

There is no devolved government in NI right now.

The Irish language question - WOW, what ignorance you show, and prejudice.
I suggest you educate yourself.

What do you have against Sinn Fein?
They are the duly elected representatives of just under half of NI's population.

Mathsanxiety

"So you are a Tory who thinks the sun shines forth from Arlene Foster's ample arse, Thea."

So you have gone from avoiding answering my points on your La La Land current EU/ASEAN similarity by offering World Bank views, to putting words in my mouth, when I was adding factual balance to your one-sided nonsense - that once AGAIN you cannot effectively challenge, as they are FACTS.

I have nothing against Sinn Fein, but if you are 'casting stones' about the DUP-Conservative similarity in views, on say the EU, that opens the door to a far deeper historical relationship between Sinn Fein and Labour.