Brexit consequences

[Spinflight]

Can't find the old one, despite a search. Hence a year on...

I started it to compare the doom and gloom predictions from people who should know better, especially the treasury, to actual observable facts.

Thus far the treasury predicted our borrowing costs would soar by over 130 points. In fact they're down about 100.

No trade deals possible before (I forget the date they said, was far in the future though) compared to actual negotiations beginning with the USA later this month with the president firmly behind them. Canada, New Zealand, Australia, India, South Korea and several others I've forgotten have shown a great desire for a deal quickly.

Ftse 100 and 250 are well up, just shy of 7500.

Best of all from a macro economic perspective is inflation touching 3%. When you are £1800 billion in debt rating that away with inflation is far preferable to actually paying it off.

Growth has dropped a bit, though nowhere near the instant recession that was predicted. Bit early to say though this is likely due to the referendum.

External investment is actually nicely up, with several major companies announcing various large commitments.

Things could be rosier, though it would be a struggle to describe them generally as bad, quite contrary to 'informed' opinions. Even the oecd recently ate their pre referendum words.

How much extra was Corbyn going to spend under his manifesto? I seem to recall about £45 billion per year. Let's use that as our guiding light shall we?

Most obviously our contribution of £18 billion per year is a clear brexit dividend. Let's take the net figure instead of £10 billion, though I'm sure the extra £8 could be spent far better than the EU currently does.

Tariffs on EU imports we know to be £12.7 billions per year, and this under wto hard (boo! hiss!) terms.

Then there's tariffs on trade with the rest of the world, practically all of which goes straight to the EU currently.

I don't have a figure for this but as at least 60% of our trade is with the rest of the world rather than the EU let's merely mirror the previous figure and accept it as an underestimate. £12.7 billion.

We are already up to £35.4 billion per year. Enough, I think, to drop income tax for everyone by 4-5p in the pound.

Then there's the proportion of Vat that goes straight to Brussels. Over a billion I'm told, though the EU isn't keen on telling us exactly how much.

Then fish. As we currently import almost £3bn worth, which would be considerably more than reversed, this is going to have quite an effect..

So to match Jeremy Corbyn's largesse I need to find another £5.6 billion per year. Which is easy.

We currently spend £13 billion on foreign aid. We merely ensure that those countries receiving this money are given the chance to sell whatever they produce to us, with all the value kept in the country of growth rather than the restrictive and evil EU policies. In other words the finished product rather than its ingredients.

No need for foreign aid when you can promote beneficial trade.

So the brexit dividend. Even more generous than Jeremy Corbyn!

Odd thread. Seems to be that the Banksbots these days are being targeted on combining anti EU posts with anti Corbyn ones. Despite the fact that Brexit has never been about left and right. Which is why Brexit voters ranged from the BNP fascists to Farages lot to the swivel eyed loons in the Tory party right the way through to the left behinds and the lexiters. And as a remain voter with left wing politics I find myself aligning myself with bankers in the city, the majority of big business owners, Cameron, Osborne, Ken Clarke etc in championing Thatchers single market legacy. However much you try to make the narrative about left v right it doesn't make it fact.

Very odd. I was accused of being a "remainder troll" the other day for posting at 1am by the OP who has posted her bizarre post above in the middle of the night.

It's not the middle of the night in the US.

Brexit dividend

Just laughed coffee onto my new sheets

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-deals-uk-benefits-limited-philip-hammond-eu-warning-a7829951.html

I hope Leadsom pops him over the head with a Union Flag for his treasonous Tory truth-telling.

I know math, my point was that the OP called me a troll just because I was posting late at night so I could equally accuse her of the same. In reality, I know posters have perfectly good reasons for posting at any time.

"Tariffs on EU imports we know to be £12.7 billions per year, and this under wto hard (boo! hiss!) terms."

...For the last time, who do you think ultimately pays the cost of tarifs?
The consumer. It is a hard to target, un-progressive tax with hard to predict consequences. It could particularly inflate the price of prodcuts with complex supply chains. It is NOT free money for the UK. Fair enough if you think that taxes should be raised, but there are better ways to do it than that!
You can't count the money raised in tarifs as a "dividend", its a tax on UK consumers.

WTO rules aren't nearly as straightforward and easy to fall back on as you seem to think, either.

I suspect you are mistaken Grace.

The UK is an immensely profitable market for EU firms quishy, they call us treasure island for good reasons, their profit margins are shall we say very healthy.

If you'd rather pay more tax personally rather than the EU based firms paying tariffs then that's your choice, though one I doubt would be shared by many.

Even if the price of BMW and Mercedes luxury cars went up I doubt you'd catch me shedding a tear.

Removing the prohibitive EU external tariffs though would result in far more choice and far lower prices for UK consumers.

"If you'd rather pay more tax personally rather than the EU based firms paying tariffs then that's your choice, though one I doubt would be shared by many."

So you think their "healthy profit margins" will absorb all tarifs? That's an astoundingly optimistic view to take! The reality is that the costs will be passed on to UK consumers. Although trade barriers are not just about tarifs: non-tarif barriers could cause serious problems for many important UK industries.

And you know we import a lot more than "BMWs and Mercedes" from the EU. About 1/4 of our food comes from the EU and, amazingly, both the poor and the rich eat food! The profit margins on food imports won't be huge, either, and I doubt the costs would be absorbed by the supplier. Yes, we could grow more of our own food, but it will take a long time for production to ramp up to meet the increased demand - you can't flip a switch with farming to suddenly increase supply.
Lots of our imports are essentials, not luxury products, and many of our most profitable industries require importing parts from elsewhere, and rely on being able to import and export seamlessly and efficiently to meet changes in demand (heard of "just in time"?).

Yes easily.

If they raised their prices it would make domestically produced more attractive and an excellent opportunity to restore lost manufacturing.

Let's put it this way, you say you'd rather pay more tax than EU firms paying tariffs. Did you also support the lib dems manifesto pledge to increase income tax by a penny in the pound?

It would have raised about £6billion. Wto tariffs on all imports would raise at least £25 billion.

Still want to pay more tax rather than porsche, volkswagon and the like taking the strain? :)

Thought not....

Country of origin rules are complicated squishy, though generally the finished product attracts tariffs but the components do not.

Citroën were asked about this and said they didn't expect brexit to have any effect on their supply chain. And if it did they would merely move component manufacture to the UK.

There are genuine problems for certain industries, though oddly nothing you've really mentioned, and I'm not minded to help you out. :)

"Did you also support the lib dems manifesto pledge to increase income tax by a penny in the pound?"
Yes!

And it will not be Porsche and VW paying this £25 billion.
I haven't mentioned every single industry that would suffer under WTO rules, because that would take too long and I would be wasting my time anyway - if I wrote an essay, would you read it? Or would you come back with a quip about luxury cars, bankers, and "tarquin's houmous"? The financial service industry would be in trouble.
I mentioned food as ONE example of EU imports, because any idiot could see that this is an area where price rises could affect everyone - the poorest the most. It is harder to dismiss concerns about food poverty with quips about the metropolitan elite, but I am sure you could if you really tries.
www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-cost-uk-leaving-eu-without-trade-deal-exports-negotiations-david-davis-a7325326.html

Individual car manufacturers are unlikely to stand up and say "ooh yes, if this thing that has a high likelihood of happening actually happens then we will be in serious financial difficulty, yes" because they have investors and share holders to reassure. Which is why when industry does start giving out warnings, we should take them very seriously - they have nothing to gain from talking down confidence in their business.

squishy also most manufacturers are global so if the UK is no longer a viable place for manufacturing they will just move.
Honestly, the last thing we should be doing at this time is being more isolationist in our approach.

I totally agree Quentin.

That's why we have to drop the drawbridge and let the rest of the world in.

High castle walls for their protectionist car boot sale don't benefit us, but they do impoverish many around the world who need our help.

Squishy should be ashamed of her little European mentality. French farmers and German industrialists do not need our help and support. The rest of the world does and trade is far better than aid at relieving poverty.

The lower the tariffs, the lower the poverty worldwide. We couldn't persuade the EU to drop theirs so felt we had to spend 2% of our public spending undoing the evil done by the EU trade policies.

Clearly she cares more for rich Europeans and Tarquin's already over privileged lifestyle choices.

Time will tell. We will have to assess the damage when we've left.

In the meantime millions of us are worrying about whether we can stay here, whether we will be trapped here, families being split up, job security, feeding our families, being able to sleep at night if it all goes completely tits up etc.

Brexit is a nightmare in waiting.

Ah, that's a new one! Let's drop the drawbridge for load of cheap Chinese and Indian imports of everything, with no chance of actually exporting anything and so flood our markets with stuff so cheap that all our manufacturers will go out of business!

Genius!

If our government acts against the EU citizens currently here Namechanger then the brexiteers will fight your case.

And we're a much tougher bunch than the remoaning nincompoops. :)

"If our government acts against the EU citizens currently here Namechanger then the brexiteers will fight your case."

HAHAHAHAHAHA

The government already is!

And I agree that is extremely bizarre to start an argument about the non-existent "Brexit dividend" (given our shrinking economy and contracting tax take) with the phrase "let's take Corbyn's spending plans"!

Non-sequiturs are us!

Both are growing cardinal. As is foreign investment. Indeed fdi is at all time record levels in the tech sector. Don't let facts get in the way of a good strop though.

Oh and a certain Donald Trump wants to conclude a trade deal very very soon, which is naughty of him.

We aren't allowed to negotiate trade deals until actually out of the customs union. But I suspect we'll forgive him his little indiscretion.

Might wind the EU up nicely, though if they don't negotiate like grown ups then they can't blame us for looking elsewhere. :)

"Both are growing cardinal."

Barely, and that's because we haven't actually left yet. Donald Trump's TTIP on steroids (quite literally!) will be a dreadful deal for the UK, and is actually what many Brexiteers were campaigning against during the referrendum! Idiots

And, as stated above, the EU has already done a really rather good trade deal with Japan, that we will be out of, and have little chance of replicating.

It's actually quite telling of what they're scared of at Banks Towers. Getting their BanksBots to have a go at Corbyn shows that they're starting their campaign for the next General Election, and they're terrified of a Corbyn victory.

Frankly, so am I. But, on the other hand, 5 years of Corbyn doing his worst (assuming he can put a stop to the looming disaster of Brexit) will cause considerably less long term and irreparable damage to this country than May's Hard Brexit. In fact even if Corbyn does go ahead with Brexit (and, let's face it, he seems quite keen on the idea), I would back Keir Starmer to get a considerably less painful deal than the painfully comical buffoonery of David Davis!

Is there any such thing as good news in the dreamoaners world?

I feel rather sorry for you. Doubt you're going to enjoy the next few years as every prophesy of doom is defeated by reality.

Do you remember, during the referendum campaign, Brexiteers were continually harping on about how we were "the 5th largest economy in the world"? (In fact, I sometimes still hear them saying that!)

Well, since taking back control ™, we have dropped to the 7th largest. If Brexit actually goes ahead we will probably drop out of the G7 in a couple of years...