Brexit consequences

[Spinflight]

Can't find the old one, despite a search. Hence a year on...

I started it to compare the doom and gloom predictions from people who should know better, especially the treasury, to actual observable facts.

Thus far the treasury predicted our borrowing costs would soar by over 130 points. In fact they're down about 100.

No trade deals possible before (I forget the date they said, was far in the future though) compared to actual negotiations beginning with the USA later this month with the president firmly behind them. Canada, New Zealand, Australia, India, South Korea and several others I've forgotten have shown a great desire for a deal quickly.

Ftse 100 and 250 are well up, just shy of 7500.

Best of all from a macro economic perspective is inflation touching 3%. When you are £1800 billion in debt rating that away with inflation is far preferable to actually paying it off.

Growth has dropped a bit, though nowhere near the instant recession that was predicted. Bit early to say though this is likely due to the referendum.

External investment is actually nicely up, with several major companies announcing various large commitments.

Things could be rosier, though it would be a struggle to describe them generally as bad, quite contrary to 'informed' opinions. Even the oecd recently ate their pre referendum words.

JumpingJellybeanz

Unfortunately for the negative hype, the facts say something different, did you not read my previous post with the following;

“BERLIN Nov 2016— Angela Merkel rebuffed a request by Theresa May for assurances that Britons living in the European Union and EU citizens living in the U.K. would keep their rights to residence, work and healthcare after Brexit.”

“The German chancellor’s polite but firm “Nein” when the two leaders met in Berlin on November 18th (2016) dashed the British prime minister’s hopes of a quick, informal deal to reassure expatriates on both sides of the Channel that they will not lose out when Britain leaves the EU, three people familiar with the matter said.”

The EU had the over 3 million citizens here to our over 1 million there, if there is any 'message here, its why didn't the EU want to break one of their unmovable rules e.g. no dialog before Article 50 triggered, for their many more citizens.

But just as Juncker showed when Cameron pleaded with him pre Referendum to put some controls on jobless EU citizens rushing here as our services couldn't cope - he said NO, as he didn't give a 'flying' about UK citizens struggling HERE, he doesn't have to electorally answer to us, and all 'problems' moving to his Federal Sate of Europe vision.

Now what helps that Federal State journey, is fleecing £££ and damaging the UK as much as possible, so jobs are there, not here.

Theresa May was NOT seeking to secure our rights. She was seeking to secure minimum rights. Angela Merkel was right to rebuff her and had the full support of British expats in doing so.

The EU position is to protect all our rights. Theresa May's position is to reduce them to the bare minimum she can get away with.

"Now what helps that Federal State journey, is fleecing £££ and damaging the UK as much as possible, so jobs are there, not here."

...So are you suggesting that it is in the EU's interests for things to get a bit shit in Britain?
Sounds like project fear to me!

CardinalSin

Re your “The Brexit Billionaires must be really worried about something for all these BanksBots to be out in force!”

As opposed to those here and in Europe who like to pretend that the EU is an economic 'lean, mean, jobs machine', and so its those that want to Leave (this near stagnant EU collective since the crash), and the UK government promising to deliver it - that’s in the wrong and open to constant attacks.

”Europe's glory days at an end, warns Juncker”

”The European Union faces an age of comparative economic decline, while the 'love' affair' of integration is at risk, says Jean-Claude Juncker”

President Macron of France has come in after 5-years of a socialist government, with annually higher government budget deficits (so higher national debt), fat state economics taking up around 56% of GDP, the negative economic effects of penal taxes on wealth they had to decrease and increase the costs of doing business – and the French tight labour legislation that kept unemployment figure over 10%, which is so EU.

France has now voted for Macron’s slashing of the French Budget Deficit, lower Corporate Taxes for businesses, ‘ways around’ the 35-hour week to INCREASE employment, and a big cut in State employment – that the Conservatives implement from 2010, and Corbyn wants to reverse, on steroids.

Now lets see how far Macron gets with the French labour movement, but the EU had better hope that they can adopt a Conservative type economic model to create growth and jobs, rather than the EU socialist model that also failed here through the 2000s, and French politicians tried from 2012 and were just decimated at the elections.

Germany’s Finance Minister Schaeuble said a few months ago;

"We don't want to weaken Britain. But we also don't want that the rest of Europe is weakened”

"Britain should not have advantages after the exit, that other countries don't have."

Which of course will be quite substantial versus a 27 country behemoth run by consensus and bureaucrats, unable to reform, that hasn’t a hope of competing with more nimble large and emerging nations unless they do. IMO

thea that whole post makes no sense

I've read it a couple of time, and still can't work out what the point is nor how it is relevant to the discussion. The writing style is quite post-modern actually.

JumpingJellybeaz

"Minimum rights"?

So Merkel and the Brussels machine was not more interested in putting together ridiculous demands for EU citizens here, to be overseen by the European Court of Justice - and not just give them more rights here than our workers have - but those same rights that have dragged down the EU's growth and employment e.g. Italy has hardly grown at all since the Euro.

Why can't they just wait until Corbyn comes in, and as per his manifesto put a trade union in EVERY workplace, and repeals all the trade union laws that stopped all the organised strikes from the 1980's - and they will have even more rights, no jobs mind, but up to their neck in 'rights', right up to the businesses close their doors having gone boobs up.

Which of the demands in particular are ridiculous?

QuentinSummers

What bit, the quotes by Juncker and Schroder (whatever), the state of the French economy after 5-years of socialism, what Macron has just been elected on, what, please be specific.

No they weren't putting together ridiculous demands. They are and were seeking to protect the rights of citizens as they now stand. It is the UK which is seeking to change things by reducing them. The UK has chosen to have less rights than they have now. It's a bit rich to now start bleating about those who didn't get to vote fighting to keep what they already have.

To me it's just a stream of vaguely accusatory words that don't say anything. I'm not sure what French domestic policy is relevant to or how it links to Junckers quote. Very odd.

squishy

"Which of the demands in particular are ridiculous?"

Apart from which countries in the world away from this federal experiment can dictate the working rights of their working rights in others?

If you do not see that the EU is trying to plant their non competitive working rights here by the back door, for the far left to 'aspire' to - as some kind of 'stagnation 'virus' - as they continually try to get closer to ours on instructions from the European Central bank for years now - I'd suggest that you may not be ideologically equipped e.g. not a bankbot (whatever).

Now I've made my case pointing out the EU problems with these workers rights re low growth, substantially higher unemployment especially amongst the young on an earlier post (that no one yet has explained the reason for) - so be my guest to answer why should other countries dictate to other countries their workers rights within - especially when they don't 'work' back home?

QuentinSummers

Maybe you have to read them a bit slower in the context that when one of the EU chief chiefs Mr Juncker thinks the 'project' is in decline, and the Remainers here thinks its still the 'bees pyjamas', now and when the EU inches towards Federalism we were never interest in - I know who we should take note of.

If you do not see that the EU is trying to plant their non competitive working rights here by the back door, for the far left to 'aspire' to - as some kind of 'stagnation 'virus' -

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA I'm literally crying with laughter. I am picturing you with a nice tinfoil hat on now! Funniest thing I've read all day, especially after reading other posts bemoaning British productivity compared to the Germans.

Honestly I hope you are a BanksBot. Otherwise I'm a bit worried about your mental health

What is the bees pyjamas? Are you actually British or of some other nationality?

Basically, you are annoyed at lefties.
You are also annoyed at the EU.
These two issues are always inextricably entwined within your mind, but not to us - that is why it is harder for us to make sense of your posts - the leaps backwards and forward between your two pet peeves are seamless and natural may be to yourself, but make it difficult for us to follow, as we do not see the relevance as clearly as you do, and the sudden changes within Proustian length sentences trip the reader up.

Squishy

Re your “So are you suggesting that it is in the EU's interests for things to get a bit shit in Britain?”
“Sounds like project fear to me!”

A fair point, without any figures.

Well according to the following, in cash terms the EU exports substantially more to us, than we do to them.

“Hard Brexit would cost EU [[www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/hard-brexit-cost-eu-uk-every-year-single-market-article-50-theresa-may-a7378006.html £8bn] more than Britain every year”

“EU companies would have to pay £13 billion year in tariffs compared to £5 billion for British firms, says thinktank”

So please explain to me, why even a Brussels bureaucrat like poster boy Barnier would not want “frictionless trade” if not the project fear you mentioned, or they will 'cut their nose just to spite us'?

Excuse me “Hard Brexit would cost EU £8bn more than Britain every year”

Ooops its getting personal in a typical can dish but not take, so I will leave you alone to talk amongst yourself.

? Nuts.
Off to a relatively sane parking/MIL/toilet brush thread.

To some extent, does it matter whether the EU are cutting off their nose to spite their face, or if it is in their best interests to refuse us frictionless trade?

The end result is the same for us here in the UK. And, trying to circle around back to the thread title; if trade does become more difficult and expensive, that's another "project fear" prediction realised, isn't it?

And like I said earlier - who actually pays this tarif? Ultimately its the consumers in the country importing the goods. The companies trying to sell the goods will find it harder to do so, which will be painful for both EU and UK businesses. Especially those with complex supply chains, and especially those who operate JIT methodology.

And yeah - the EU export more to the UK than we export to them. But the whole EU is much, much bigger than us so will not feel the negative effects as keenly as we will. They will be able to absorb the drop in exports better, as the effects will be spread out over a wider area.

I do tend to turn off halfway through Thea's posts when they stop making any coherent sense...

I can only imagine the ire against Theresa May if she insisted that British courts had to adjudicate over British expats in Spain or elsewhere.

It would be a clearly unreasonable demand.

Yet when the EU demands it the dreamoaners get in a tizzy and support them.

Barmy and utterly indefensible.

Completely agree with Spinflight! Everything is hunky-dory in the UK at the moment and the economy couldn't be better:

UK manufacturing output falls and trade deficit widens

We need to remind ourselves that Andrea Leadson has asked that we all be "patriotic" in the way we speak about Brexit.