Brexit consequences

[Spinflight]

Can't find the old one, despite a search. Hence a year on...

I started it to compare the doom and gloom predictions from people who should know better, especially the treasury, to actual observable facts.

Thus far the treasury predicted our borrowing costs would soar by over 130 points. In fact they're down about 100.

No trade deals possible before (I forget the date they said, was far in the future though) compared to actual negotiations beginning with the USA later this month with the president firmly behind them. Canada, New Zealand, Australia, India, South Korea and several others I've forgotten have shown a great desire for a deal quickly.

Ftse 100 and 250 are well up, just shy of 7500.

Best of all from a macro economic perspective is inflation touching 3%. When you are £1800 billion in debt rating that away with inflation is far preferable to actually paying it off.

Growth has dropped a bit, though nowhere near the instant recession that was predicted. Bit early to say though this is likely due to the referendum.

External investment is actually nicely up, with several major companies announcing various large commitments.

Things could be rosier, though it would be a struggle to describe them generally as bad, quite contrary to 'informed' opinions. Even the oecd recently ate their pre referendum words.

What deal are you expecting? What negotiating position do we actually have?

We expected reasonable and grown up discussion. Barnier has clearly stated that he has not and will not compromise.

His other message is any deal is better than no deal. Which would be amusingly childish if they weren't demanding tens of billions plus the worst deal they can concoct.

Again, what's your plan for brits living in the EU?

Not really for me to say.. I'm sure the government have plans for all contingencies.

We made a very generous offer and again the EU rejected it, trying to get their court involved in our internal business. Imagine if we had insisted that British law had to apply to our expats? That Scottish expats had to be subject to Scottish law in Spain.

I mean... The cheek of it.

Just shows how little regard for grown up conversations they have.

So you're happy to walk away now even though you admit to not having a scooby to how this would work out.

I'm sure the government have plans for all contingencies.

Your complete and naive trust in the government would be sweet if it wasn't about something as serious as Brexit and the damage it will do fir the next generation (or two)

You can't expect plans- who do you think they are? Nostradamus!

So what's your plan for the million + brits that will be left in legal limbo by walking away?

Spin doesn't have a plan for anything. Unfortunately, neither does Teresa Mayhem. As for David Davis, well...

We expected reasonable and grown up discussion.

HAHAHAHAHAHA

The EU have tried to have a grown up discussion, but Mayhem, DD et al have done nothing but empty posturing and crying wolf!

Really, do try harder.

What else could May do? She's said she'll walk away. That no real is better than a bad deal. That she'll deny access to our fishing waters if the EU doesn't play nice.

She could negotiate in good faith, but, as you say, she has instead claimed she would walk away. And yet you seem to think this is a grown up negotiating tactic!

As for the fishing right, which government was it that sold them all to foreign fishing companies in the first place!

As for all those lovely trade deals that Liam Fox is going to negotiate

Ha!

Lol we'll see...

Can't personally see Theresa taking the advice on here to roll over, take the worst deal and pay the maximum price.

Who knew that sleazy euro politicians are actually the second coming who can do no wrong?

I must have missed the memo. Lol

Unfortunately, I can't see TM taking advice from anybody who actually knows what they're talking about...

"Can't personally see Theresa taking the advice on here to roll over, take the worst deal and pay the maximum price."

What I would like to see is her and her Brexit team engaging in reasonable and grown up discussion!
You don't need to idolise EU politicians to recognise the extreme damage that leaving with no deal in place (especially an early UDI) would do to our country. Yeah, so it would effect their imports too. But who do you think actually pays for the tarifs put on foreign goods? Its not free money for the treasury - the costs will be passed on to UK consumers. If you want to raise more tax, there are much fairer, less chaotic ways to do it! UK consumers who will have less money to spend if the companies they work for find their exports (including services) have been slashed. And of course, many manufacturing businesses in the UK have complex supply chains, so will be doubly/triply/quadruply affected by any trade barriers if no deal is agreed. The ones that can will just relocate, I suppose.

I really fail to see how putting huge numbers of companies out of business and massively increasing the price UK consumers pay for goods is considered to be the patriotic thing to do. Even the most stupid person should be able to see the flaw in that plan, surely? And that's just the economic downside of sodding off early with no deal agreed.

British Expats in the EU,
-I am sure that the people below (see link) would love to hear from the government plans!!! ECREU was mainly founded by British expats to ensure that they stay protected- so far they think that Theresa May could not care less.

www.ecreu.com/ecreu-latest-news.html

• EU nationals are being threatened with Nazi style proposals -oh! So generous! such as (not exhaustive):

*special ID cards only for that EU group ; all EU nationals to be all fingerprinted if you please;

• invalidation of permanent residents permits for those who already have got a resident permit.

• denial of British citizenship for children born in UK from EU parents if they do not hold a resident permit.

• removal of right of voting in local elections etc..

In my view, these measures are meant to encourage EU nationals to leave the UK so that Barnier has less of a bargaining power-fewer EU nationals so no longer an issue.

CardinalSin

You say “Unfortunately, I can't see TM taking advice from anybody who actually knows what they're talking about...”

FYi May late last year tried to appeal to Germany’s Merkel, over the likes of Juncker and other nasty unelected by the people EU small minded bureaucrats, saying they want to PUNISH UK citizens for voting to leave, to discuss the EU and UK citizens living abroad – and funny old world, Germany did not want to listen.

As Merkel ‘respected’ the EU jumped up bureaucrats who said NOTHING could be discussed until Article 50 was triggered, so yet another anti May false accusation.

“BERLIN Nov 2016— Angela Merkel rebuffed a request by Theresa May for assurances that Britons living in the European Union and EU citizens living in the U.K. would keep their rights to residence, work and healthcare after Brexit.”

“The German chancellor’s polite but firm “Nein” when the two leaders met in Berlin on November 18th (2016) dashed the British prime minister’s hopes of a quick, informal deal to reassure expatriates on both sides of the Channel that they will not lose out when Britain leaves the EU, three people familiar with the matter said.”

All hyperbolic spin Thea.

The EU agreed that they couldn't discuss things until the UK activated article 50 because that would presuppose all kinds of things, and so they didn't. Fair enough, as that was up to the UK government to decide, not something the EU could do.

Merkel didn't offer any assurances for UK citizen living in the EU because May and Loathsome et al had already been making threats against EU citizens living in the UK. It really is only basic common sense. Maybe if TM had actually thought about the consequences of her actions, or, heaven forbid, actually listened to some of those dreaded experts, she would have burned her bridges before the negotiations had even started.

You can try and spin it as much as you want, but spewing Murdoch/Dacre bile doesn't actually make it true...

*would not have

CardinalSin

So May caring about both the EU and UK citizens could not get a deal last year, as the EU hadn't put its bureaucratic 'order of Brexit discussions' ducks in a row, which sez it all about Brussels - as all they care about is their ever closer Federal 'project' and the rules, not the people in member countries affected - especially those old farts in Brussels, who don't ANSWER to the 500 million people in ANY EU ballot box.

Re "threats, do you want a contest to show proof of threats EU versus the UK going back and forth, before and after the Referendum?

As I know that an EU with more Brussels 'chiefs' than the Sioux Nation had at its height, and 'posturing' by many leaders, chancellors whatever of 27 other nations (that don't yet include, or waiting, the Sioux) - far, far, outnumbered Conservative mainly retaliatory answers and DARING to state our position, that threw the EU desperate for UK cash e.g. coming out of the Single Market.

DividedKingdom

You say “God, I feel so sorry for Barnier...I cannot believe the honorable politicians representing the UK have not worked out the basic rules of the single market yet.”

I agree, but is the UK politicians like the Lib Dems, SNP and many Labour MPs constantly PRETENDING that there is ‘’Soft’ Brexit option, that are the thick ones, not the government.

I see no one has answered my post explaining both the Eurozone much worse than the UK unemployment figures, especially within their young where over 50% are on perpetual Temp contracts.

Which is key to why the EU bureaucrats and leaders are not only looking to penalize the UK growth/jobs, that they would no longer have access to via the Single Market ‘Freedom of Movement’ – but get those jobs over there, helped by UK ‘soft’ politician and those in social media, constantly trying to discredit the government for whatever their agenda is.

As how else would you or anyone else explain why the likes of Turkey and Canada can have virtually free trade with the EU, but a UK that imports FAR MORE to EU than we export to them (and currently conforms to every head up bum EU rules and regs), has just had this warning from your poster boy Barnier?

Michel Barnier says Britain's "red lines" in the exit negotiations mean there is no prospect of "frictionless trade".

“In a stark rejection of Theresa May's negotiating position, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said it appeared the Government still does not understand the bloc's position on the single market.”

“The Prime Minister has said she wants trade with the EU to be "as frictionless as possible", while Brexit Secretary David Davis has said a new trade deal should deliver the "exact same benefits" as single market membership.”

“Mr Barnier said he was unsure the EU's refusal to grant piecemeal access to the single market and insistence on controlling standards in the single market "have been fully understood across the channel.”

So is it NOW clear to those UK MPs trying to get votes and cause dissatisfaction on the lie that there was a ‘Soft’ option, WITHOUT keeping our borders open to facilitate an EU whose own labour laws screws EU job creation (especially for their own youth), that like Tusk said last year – for Britain it is either a “Hard Brexit or NO Brexit”

"So May caring about both the EU and UK citizens could not get a deal last year"

She has shown nothing but contempt for EU citizens from long before she became PM. Pretending doesn't make it otherwise.

The Brexit Billionaires must be really worried about something for all these BanksBots to be out in force!

"As how else would you or anyone else explain why the likes of Turkey and Canada can have virtually free trade with the EU, but a UK that imports FAR MORE to EU than we export to them (and currently conforms to every head up bum EU rules and regs), has just had this warning from your poster boy Barnier?"

Because it is political, as well as economic.

Which is why all the bollocks that was spouted pre-referendum about how the new EU/UK trade deals would be great, because the EU need our trade so much was just that; bollocks. It is not news to me that we will be unable to get a better deal outside the EU than within it. It should not be news to anyone. Does that count as a "project fear" prediction come true, or is it still too early to say? Does anyone think there is a chance that we will get a better deal than the one we had before? And if not, why is this solely the fault of those meanies in the EU, rather than the people stupid/mendacious enough to claim that we would be able to get an amazing, fast tracked trade deal without any of the drawbacks and costs of EU membership?

I recognise that underlining style

The sad reality is that British expats are looking to the EU to protect them and their rights, NOT Britain. We know that the British government doesn't care about us and won't protect us. We're just a convenient excuse to justify their appalling treatment of EU migrants. The British government will sell us up the swanny in a heartbeat. How do we know this? Because May keeps telling us. 'No deal is better than a bad deal' ie total abandonment of British expats.