Brexit consequences

[Spinflight]

Can't find the old one, despite a search. Hence a year on...

I started it to compare the doom and gloom predictions from people who should know better, especially the treasury, to actual observable facts.

Thus far the treasury predicted our borrowing costs would soar by over 130 points. In fact they're down about 100.

No trade deals possible before (I forget the date they said, was far in the future though) compared to actual negotiations beginning with the USA later this month with the president firmly behind them. Canada, New Zealand, Australia, India, South Korea and several others I've forgotten have shown a great desire for a deal quickly.

Ftse 100 and 250 are well up, just shy of 7500.

Best of all from a macro economic perspective is inflation touching 3%. When you are £1800 billion in debt rating that away with inflation is far preferable to actually paying it off.

Growth has dropped a bit, though nowhere near the instant recession that was predicted. Bit early to say though this is likely due to the referendum.

External investment is actually nicely up, with several major companies announcing various large commitments.

Things could be rosier, though it would be a struggle to describe them generally as bad, quite contrary to 'informed' opinions. Even the oecd recently ate their pre referendum words.

I do like your enthusiasm OP but it really blows my mind that anyone can not understand that actual Brexit (not this lead up we're currently in) will be a bad thing for the UK economy and the standard of living here.

If you just want to be out of the EU then Brexit is a good thing for you, and yes you are entitled to be happy for the result. If you have a recession-proof job, some savings and not looking for too much more out of life then you'll be OK.

If you wanted to prosper, or your family to prosper then Brexit is not going to allow that.

We need to revisit this thread in 3/5 years after actual Brexit to determine how it's gone. It's far too early to gloat and declare it's been a success.

CardinalSin
But Rorty, there's not a single mention of sunlit uplands or unicorns!

I can offer a sunlit garden with Ichabod the robin sitting on a flowerpot nearby - enjoying the sunflower hearts I just put out - will that do?

MyCalmX
I do like your enthusiasm OP but it really blows my mind that anyone can not understand that actual Brexit (not this lead up we're currently in) will be a bad thing for the UK economy and the standard of living here.

How do you know that it will be bad? Unless you're Nostradamus don't you think we should wait and see?

If you just want to be out of the EU then Brexit is a good thing for you, and yes you are entitled to be happy for the result. If you have a recession-proof job, some savings and not looking for too much more out of life then you'll be OK.

I am happy at the result. I'm also retired and survive off my OAP and a miniscule private pension with very few savings.

If you wanted to prosper, or your family to prosper then Brexit is not going to allow that.

Again, if you're not Nostradamus how do you know?

We need to revisit this thread in 3/5 years after actual Brexit to determine how it's gone. It's far too early to gloat and declare it's been a success.

Yes, exactly. Surely you must also agree that it's far too early to declare it has been a failure, which is what you have forecast in most of your post.

How do you know that it will be bad? Unless you're Nostradamus don't you think we should wait and see?

Because you are happy to take such a huge risk wo doing any study about it or refusing to listen to the people who DID the studies just because you're not Nostradamus??
Are you part of the same group that refused to listen to the manufacturer of the cladding used on Grenfell and you though you should wait and see too?
Or are you part of the people that thought that if you were drastically reducing budget in the NHS and education, somehow, this would NOT lead to a decrease in the quality of the acre/education? Just wait and see for a generation and then evaluate the disaster because somehow it wasn't possible to plan??

Come on, there is plenty of things you can plan. And a lot of the things we see happening NOW were planned before the levtuons. But no one wanted to listen which is very different.
More a of a Cassandra issue than a Nostradamus issue IMO.

"If you just want to be out of the EU then Brexit is a good thing for you, and yes you are entitled to be happy for the result. If you have a recession-proof job, some savings and not looking for too much more out of life then you'll be OK."

"I am happy at the result. I'm also retired and survive off my OAP and a miniscule private pension with very few savings."

Right, you probably will be alright then compared to many of us. Not rich, but you won't loose the roof over your head if the economy does take a battering. If the shit does hit the fan, you will be able to sit back and say "the job losses aren't that bad, it is just exaggeration". You can kid yourselves it is all just numbers, and that most of those "numbers" are just unambitious and lazy anyway, and would be fine if they just applied themselves more. Meanwhile, maybe others on this thread will find themselves unemployed with little prospect of a replacement job, unable to pay the rent or mortgage, and may have to watch their young children lose their home.

Whatever happens, I am confident that you will remain convinced that Brexit was the right decision. As long as you're alright!

I don't know what you're on PurplePeppers but no, I am not part of any group and I think its fucking disgusting of you to bring the Grenfell disaster into this discussion. It has nothing to do with Brexit and I suggest you get some help.

I am an individual who believes this country will be better after leaving an EU which is ruled by the unelected and unaccountable who want to form ever closer union.

I can't be dealing with such ignorance and stupidity any more - enjoy the thread - over and out.

Rorty, love, before you go , have you met the House of Lords?

Not to mention all the Tory donors and newspaper owners...

strike touche

Funny how Brexiteers like to storm off in a huff all the time...

I'm still here and still waiting..

Can any one point to an economic projection with a known timescale which has been proven true a year after the referendum?

Our own personal opinions are neither here nor there. All of the official projections were unanimously gloom laden for this point in time and all were completely wrong.

Ok I will bite.
Here is an FT article outlining experts views of likely outcomes for brexit, from January 2016 (so before the referendum). www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/1a86ab36-afbe-11e5-b955-1a1d298b6250
They say Most of the 36 per cent of economists saying there would be little impact in 2016 came to that view because they thought a vote would come too late to materially affect the year’s economic data. Gavyn Davies, Chairman of Fulcrum Asset Management, was typical in saying, “the referendum will not make any major difference to 2016 views. However, a No vote would lead to a sharp drop in growth in 2017, due to political uncertainty, worries about Scotland’s status inside the UK, an upheaval in the financial services industry, and a major drop in inward capital flows into the UK.

Here is the news about growth and the economy today www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/jul/05/uk-service-sector-car-sales-economy-business-live
Growth is slowing, confidence is low, political uncertainty is high. Our growth is lowest in Europe and the G7. www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/08/uk-economy-falls-to-bottom-of-eu-growth-league

I'd say the expert predictions in the FT were accurate.

Good job Quentin. I hope the op acknowledges their mistake

No, the Spin doctor from Brexit HQ will keep narrowing the terms you are supposed to argue with (note their last post), and continue to ignore any posts that actually challenge their narrative.

When I was posting months before the referendum, I didn't realise that there were actually people being paid to write this sh!t, but over the course of the campaign it became so obvious that people were not posting to debate, but rather to ignore debate and repeat campaign slogans. And the more intelligent ones try to twist the argument and change the points of discussion to obfuscate and attempt to dismiss all legitimate concerns and arguments. (Also, see above).

Your article is behind a pay wall.

Could you source it in a more open way?

It's hard to find a comprehensive summary of what's happened so far, but here are the current views of the business sections of some of the newspapers.

I have included the Guardian and the Telegraph for balance.

www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/jul/05/uk-service-sector-car-sales-economy-business-live

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/07/05/pound-slips-one-week-low-ahead-uk-services-data-oil-remains/

I was specifically talking about Quentin's FT article Grace.

Sadly the 10,000 highly paid Internet trolls sitting next to me at 01:16am in "Brexit HQ" don't have access to the FT either. :)

Whilst Quentin responds to my polite request I wonder whether anyone sees a relationship between brexit and productivity?

Unless remainers spend all day at the water cooler sharing tissues and scare stories I can't make the link myself. :)

Rather than not increasing productivity has actually declined, which has a negative multiplier effect upon growth.

Is this the fault of brexit? I'm genuinely curious as to people's opinions and can assure you that the same economists, bodies and experts we are indirectly discussing have no idea as to the cause either since the referendum or indeed for the last decade.

Had productivity advanced at the historic rate (over 20% per decade) in the last then our tax take and public spending could have been at least 20% higher now than they are now.

You would think that the increased use of IT should have made both public and private sectors more productive, across the economy though it has not.

PurplePeppers

You said "Re export, you do realise that the reason why exports haven't gone up is because British companies have decided to pocket the extra money instead of decreasing their prices to be able to sell more?"

Our export figures aren't doing so bad at all considering that after 13-years of a socialist government UK Manufacturing fell from around 21% of our economy to around 12%, losing 2 million of the 4.5 million jobs we had, 1 million jobs in Labour's first seven years, before the financial crash even began.

That was because similar the the EU, Labour concentrated on build up a fat expensive State full of rules and regulations, rather than understand that businesses usually survive under socialism DESPITE government, not because of it.

PurplePeppers

You said to me re the £350 million to the NHS by the non government represented Leave campaign "I would strongly advise you to read what leavers think now and the reason why they voted to leave. And often, this is because what they wanted was the end of austerity measures. They wanted 350millions going to the NHS. And quite a few of them have now a change of heart. Because they realise that they have been LIED TO (sorry that they were obvioulsy too sumo to realise this woudo never happen. And that they had been taken for a ride again.)

UK voters sick and tired of 'open borders' to an EU who can't provide jobs to their citizens, was why they voted to Leave, - nothing to do with so called 'austerity' at all.

Under socialism, the UK had a projected £167 billion (and rising) ANNUAL government overspend in 2010, versus around Euro 60 billion in socialist France, due to bad Labour spending on unreformed services, where only about 30% of what they spent on the NHS got to the front line.

Now the UK's annual budget deficit overspend is around £52 billion and the last time I say France's, it was around Euro 95 billion and rising.

France has just elected President Macron who wants to SLASH France's budget deficit by Euro 60 billion a year, so on YOUR logic, does that mean the French will now want to leave the EU - just as Macron wants it to be in a tighter Eurozone 'club'?

PurplePeppers
Referring to like for like employment stats between the UK and the rubbish ones in the EU, you said to me;

“You can NOT compare the rates of unemployment in the uk and in France like this.
Because in the uk you have

• loads of part time work (that will not allow you to live on them), zero hours contract and so on, all of which are reducing the number of job seekers even though these are people would will want/need a full time job to be able to live on it.

WHereas in France

• most jobs are full time, there is little flexibility in the market which makes it harder to find another job BUT when you have your job, you will NOT be made redudant etc... Plus there is no part time job etc...”

I’m afraid, looking at the following Financial Times article, I would suggest that the opposite is true, due to deeply ingrained EU problems going back decades, which makes the Remainers pre Referendum case to our young that we are leaving an EU jobs machine a nonsense – and why France’s new President Macron wants to try to tackle ‘stuff’ like the 35-hour week restrictions and other labour reforms, that MPs here like Corbyn STILL aspire to;

”They call it the “precariat”. In a continent known for strong employee protections, more than half of the eurozone’s young workers are in temporary jobs, churning from one shortlived contract to the next.”

”In France, permanent jobs account for just 16 per cent of new contracts, down from a quarter in 2000. In Spain, almost seven in 10 young workers are on temporary contracts. The share of the eurozone’s 15 to 24-year-old workers who are temps is the highest on record, at 52.4 per cent.”

”A deep fracture has emerged in Spain, France, Italy and Portugal over the past 20 years, with an older generation of highly protected permanent employees on one side and a younger generation forced to settle for insecure jobs on the other. That is one reason why youth unemployment surged when the crisis hit.”

“The rules for open-ended contracts in Europe are considered too stringent by employers and they sidestep those regulations by creating non-regular jobs,”

So please try again and explain why the EU and not the UK has the better prospects in employment, when the former DISCOURAGES any company taking a chance hiring anyone during the GOOD times, never mind the bad.

Only in socialism is it better to have much fewer jobs, but protested employment, and so 'looking after the few and not the many', [wink}

PurplePeppers

So good luck to a post Brexit EU who NEEDED UK jobs for their youth, to compensate for the EU employee protections killing jobs growth in the two similar sized economies of France and Italy, to the UK.

That was why those in the EU without their own heads up their bums was sick in a bucket when the UK voted to leave - and why they all keep saying it ain't too late to change your mind.

How pathetic is it that an EU with 27 other members, so needs our money to keep their 'Ponzi Scheme' of dishing the dosh to current emerging EU members, and future members going - without the other bigger states writing more cheques, or god forbid, reducing subsidies to 'the plebs'.

That is why the EU want at least Euro 60 billion from us, when their Chief Negotiator Barnier recently admitted in a press conference that he had no idea what the actual 'meeting our obligations' figure ACTUALLY was.

So in prioritising, while the EU does say we have to pay a wedge for their bureaucrats pensions, it is more of what they NEED as a down payment to keep the great EU Ponzi Scheme going, its CLEARLY not what we owe.

I was talking specifically about Quentin's FT article Grace.

There wasn't any need to be rude. This is a thread about Brexit consequences and I posted some current links that were relevant. If you'd bothered to read them, although the overall picture was gloomy, there were a few positive points too that you might have been interested in. And not that it's any of your business but I'm not a troll, but a teacher who was up very late marking assessments who needed a bit of downtime before sleeping.

I can't do anything about the paywall for you spin. I copied the relevant paragraph, do you disagree that what Gavyn Davies said appears to be an accurate prediction of what is currently happening?

You would think that the increased use of IT should have made both public and private sectors more productive, across the economy though it has not.
You would only think that if you didn't work in IT

Thea:

'Their bureaucrats' pensions' include Nigel Farage and many other British bureaucrats. Would you rather pay 'their' pensions?

....www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10777124/Nigel-Farage-among-MEPs-to-benefit-from-EU-second-pension-scheme.html