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Politics

Brexit consequences

999 replies

Spinflight · 04/07/2017 07:30

Can't find the old one, despite a search. Hence a year on...

I started it to compare the doom and gloom predictions from people who should know better, especially the treasury, to actual observable facts.

Thus far the treasury predicted our borrowing costs would soar by over 130 points. In fact they're down about 100.

No trade deals possible before (I forget the date they said, was far in the future though) compared to actual negotiations beginning with the USA later this month with the president firmly behind them. Canada, New Zealand, Australia, India, South Korea and several others I've forgotten have shown a great desire for a deal quickly.

Ftse 100 and 250 are well up, just shy of 7500.

Best of all from a macro economic perspective is inflation touching 3%. When you are £1800 billion in debt rating that away with inflation is far preferable to actually paying it off.

Growth has dropped a bit, though nowhere near the instant recession that was predicted. Bit early to say though this is likely due to the referendum.

External investment is actually nicely up, with several major companies announcing various large commitments.

Things could be rosier, though it would be a struggle to describe them generally as bad, quite contrary to 'informed' opinions. Even the oecd recently ate their pre referendum words.

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CardinalSin · 13/07/2017 12:33

Squishy - Spin thinks that if we crash out without a deal everything will be fine because WE'RE BRITISH don't you know. She probably thinks it'll be like that scene in Passport to Pimlico, where the rest of the world is throwing things to us in support, or something...

squishysquirmy · 13/07/2017 12:36

Thea, I didn't like what Labour did with PFIs in the NHS. I don't like what the Conservatives have done since. You are once again assuming that everyone with concerns over Brexit is a left wing, loyal Labour supporter. Its not true.

I hope that any deals with the USA will not open up our NHS to more privatisation. At the moment, May is saying that it wont and I hope she sticks by that promise. But I could well understand America demanding the freedom to tender for health contracts. It could be very lucrative for their businesses and, after all, the administration has promised to put America First.

Hopefully, May will stand firm on this red line, but if she wants a deal done quickly, concessions will have to be made. If it looks like we will leave the EU with no deal, then we will be in desperate need of agreeing something with the USA as quickly as possible. And the more desperate negotiating partner is the weaker one.

So, its not an inevitability, but it is a risk. And that risk is exacerbated by gung-ho nonsense about storming away from Brexit negotiations without a deal in a patriotic huff.

squishysquirmy · 13/07/2017 12:38

Cardinal Wasn't the Duke of Pimlico FRENCH? Shock
Sacre bleu....

Spinflight · 13/07/2017 12:38

Sorry squishy and dragons.

Not my job to react to every reactionary scare story.

Feel free to bend your local elected representatives ear though, they actually get paid for it. :)

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squishysquirmy · 13/07/2017 12:42

My MP agrees with me.

You don't have to react to every scare story, but when you take the stance that we will absolutely fine if we leave without any deals in place, you should really try to apply a little critical thinking, and try to imagine how that would work in practice. You don't have to, of course. But it is weird to have such a strong opinion without being willing to even try to defend it.

CardinalSin · 13/07/2017 12:43

"Not my job to react to every reactionary scare story."

No, just to pretend that real problems don't exist...

CardinalSin · 13/07/2017 12:44

"Hopefully, May will stand firm on this red line"

Yes, we all have strong faith that she'll do that, don't we Grin

squishysquirmy · 13/07/2017 12:45

If its even still her in power by the time that deal is being made....
-Oh, please, please not Boris--

Spinflight · 13/07/2017 13:06

So squishy you merely want me to explain all of the constitutional, security, trade, legal, financial, geopolitical and diplomatic effects of brexit in great detail whilst fending off moon howling diatribes, party political point scoring, frantic panics from GoogleFu blackbelts and even mere misunderstandings?

I like you squishy, but not that much. :)

Don't get me wrong, I encourage political activism in all it's forms. I merely have no interest in being the referee! Lol

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CardinalSin · 13/07/2017 13:33

"So squishy you merely want me to explain all of the constitutional, security, trade, legal, financial, geopolitical and diplomatic effects of brexit in great detail"

Go on! That would be hilarious!

Motheroffourdragons · 13/07/2017 13:42

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

squishysquirmy · 13/07/2017 16:12

No.

Just that if you make an extraordinary statement like "there is nothing even remotely catastrophic in this for the UK" if we leave without any deal in place, it would be nice for you to provide some defence for it. I highlighted an extremely tiny sample of some of the problems that dropping out with no deal might cause. I chose to use specific examples, rather than a sweeping statement like "business would be damaged" because I think it is easier to visualise specific scenarios. I also thought it would be easy and quick to explain why these scenarios wouldn't happen, if indeed you have any insight into why they wouldn't. I did not go into the constitutional, security, trade, legal, financial, geopolitical and diplomatic effects of brexit in great detail, as I think that would be an extremely long post, with a lot of unknowns. Wink I didn't ask you to either. I asked a few, very specific questions that should be easy to answer if your assurance is based on anything more than blind optimism.

How could dropping out with no deal arranged possibly be anything other than catastrophic? I just wanted something more than "because I say it wont be". But, whatever.

Spinflight · 13/07/2017 20:59

Open up a thread on it and see who replies squishy.

This one is intended for predictions and their actuality.

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squishysquirmy · 13/07/2017 22:03

You're the one who brought up how wonderful leaving with no deal would be. If you don't want your thread derailed, then don't derail your thread.

Spinflight · 13/07/2017 22:22

Ok

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abilockhart · 13/07/2017 23:20

Leaving the EU without a trade deal will cost us the NHS.

Trump will receive his pound of flesh from the UK (privatisation of NHS) as the price for a trade deal with the US?

CardinalSin · 14/07/2017 00:56

No Spin, you opened the thread because your colleagues at Banks Towers are getting scared that the gullible no longer think that Brexit is a good idea. Now you're getting called on all the lies that came up, you're not quite so keen although you keep posting rubbish your master tell you to

mathanxiety · 14/07/2017 00:59

www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-40585744

So here we have civil servants warning that customs are going to face chaos and Steve Baker, MP insisting it will all turn out in the end as he has some sort of magic dust to sprinkle over everything. The government motto is "Nothing could possibly go wrong go wrong go wrong go wrong..."

Spinflight · 14/07/2017 00:59

Is banks towers the same place as brexit towers?

Thought it was brexit towers I, and my 10000 colleagues worked at. :)

If not is the ice cream in the canteen better at banks towers and would I get my bonus for posting after midnight?

I think we should know!

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CardinalSin · 14/07/2017 01:06

I'm not sure of the correct designation, not having been there, but I assume you can correct me. If you're working for Aaron Banks but the building or organisation is called Brexit Towers, please just let me know and I'll refer to it correctly in future.

If, on the other hand, you want to continue pretending that it's entirely personal and you cannot conceive of anything at all even remotely going wrong with a hard Breixit and crashing out of the EU with now agreement in place then I'll continue to know that you have not a shred of integrity.

TheaSaurass · 14/07/2017 02:01

Firstly, we all understand there is no 'Soft' Brexit option on the EU table, as we wish to control our borders.

On the 'crashing', are we talking in the likes of Trade, where people are worried EU companies and UK companies trade will 'crash' for some reason - or be inconvenienced until things settle?

Currently, I believe the UK already conducts about 60% of global trade on WTO terms.

Now maybe this geezer has a an informed idea of what is going to happen on EU-UK trade on the event of a Hard Brexit;

“Brexit will not cause UK trade disruption WTO boss”

“Roberto Azevedo dismisses fears Britain could suffer a sudden seizure of trade during or after its negotiations with the EU.”

"“The head of the World Trade Organisation has vowed to ensure Britain will not face a trade "vacuum or a disruption", however tough its exit from the European Union.”

Now maybe the likes of those peddling baseless scare stories like 'Trump will take over the NHS' knows more than the head of the WTO, go figure.

Spinflight · 14/07/2017 02:18

Depends Thea,

When we export to the rest of the world we are generally doing so on wto terms.

When we import from them they trade with us on EU external tariff terms.

We have no control over the latter and don't pocket the tariffs. The EU does.

After brexit when someone trades with us, we import something, it will be on the much lower tariffs of wto terms until we sign a free trade deal with them.

When the EU trades with us, all the German cars etc, they will have to pay wto tariffs and terms, which we will pocket. Over £12bn a year apparently.

When we export to them we will then face the EU external tariffs.

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squishysquirmy · 14/07/2017 08:55

"On the 'crashing', are we talking in the likes of Trade, where people are worried EU companies and UK companies trade will 'crash' for some reason - or be inconvenienced until things settle?"

If I answer that Thea, Spin will get terribly upset about her thread getting derailed....

twofingerstoEverything · 14/07/2017 09:14

Cardinal you might be interested in this article.
I've posted this link before, but this seems a very good place to post it again

squishysquirmy · 14/07/2017 09:14

On the subject of predictions that don't come to pass, and the difference between an inevitability and an unaceptable risk:

Angela and Zoe were sitting on a balcony, enjoying the afternoon sunshine and some drinks. Angela, who had been enjoying them even more than Zoe, was blessed with keen vision and spotted a 20 pence piece on the pavement below.
"I'm going to jump down from here and get that!"
"Please don't", said Zoe "we live on the 3rd storey. You could get killed!"
But Angela was already climbing over the railing. She was made of sterner stuff than Zoe, and was not going to fall for any of her hyperbolic panic mongering.
"I'll be fiiiiiiiiiinnnnne!!!!!! She disappeared over the edge. A sickening crunching sound was heard.
Horrified, Zoe ran over to the edge, and looked down to see Angela lying mangled on the pavement below.
"Cripes Angela! I can see your shin bone sticking out of your leg!"
"HA" Angela was triumphant. "I'm alive, aren't I? Who's the idiot now, Zoe???"

Who indeed.