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Politics

Brexit consequences

999 replies

Spinflight · 04/07/2017 07:30

Can't find the old one, despite a search. Hence a year on...

I started it to compare the doom and gloom predictions from people who should know better, especially the treasury, to actual observable facts.

Thus far the treasury predicted our borrowing costs would soar by over 130 points. In fact they're down about 100.

No trade deals possible before (I forget the date they said, was far in the future though) compared to actual negotiations beginning with the USA later this month with the president firmly behind them. Canada, New Zealand, Australia, India, South Korea and several others I've forgotten have shown a great desire for a deal quickly.

Ftse 100 and 250 are well up, just shy of 7500.

Best of all from a macro economic perspective is inflation touching 3%. When you are £1800 billion in debt rating that away with inflation is far preferable to actually paying it off.

Growth has dropped a bit, though nowhere near the instant recession that was predicted. Bit early to say though this is likely due to the referendum.

External investment is actually nicely up, with several major companies announcing various large commitments.

Things could be rosier, though it would be a struggle to describe them generally as bad, quite contrary to 'informed' opinions. Even the oecd recently ate their pre referendum words.

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Carolinesbeanies · 14/07/2017 11:53

Gosh this thread has hit new histrionic highs. Now were all going to die.

There is no basis whatsoever, for any of the histrionic claims below. None. Zilch. Euratom (who are the current cause celebre of the desperate remain hysterics) place no restrictions whatsoever on 'rest of the world' exports. There is no difference whatsoever between being in the EU or being out of the EU.

Supply chain, has always worked on an origin/destination process. There is no difference between being in the EU and out of the EU.

The whole histrionic argument for 'remain' is based on an assumption that, all EU citizens will be barred from the UK and all EU trade will somehow immediately cease overnight on brexit. (Shall I shout that really loud to make it true?) Nope and Nope.

Lets be absolutely totally clear here as to what Brexit is. Brexit is a change to the terms on which european citizens can visit the UK. Brexit is a change to the terms of 'taxation' on trade.

A seriously huge dose of valium is clearly needed in remainer lalaland.

CardinalSin · 14/07/2017 12:22

Someone hasn't heard of the Customs Union...

histinyhandsarefrozen · 14/07/2017 12:28

Someone has just got a new word, histrionic, and can't stop using it.

GhostofFrankGrimes · 14/07/2017 12:46

Easyjet setting up Austrian hq for post Brexit EU flights.

squishysquirmy · 14/07/2017 13:04

"Now were all going to die."
So sorry to break this to you Caroline, but yes. Yes, we are all going to die. I can't see where anyone has said that on this thread, but maybe I missed it.

"The whole histrionic argument for 'remain' is based on an assumption that, all EU citizens will be barred from the UK and all EU trade will somehow immediately cease overnight on brexit."

Who has said that? IF we left with NO deal, the latter will happen, at least in the immediate aftermath.

Motheroffourdragons · 14/07/2017 13:11

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TheaSaurass · 14/07/2017 13:19

"But what will the process be after Brexit ?"

Hopefully a smaller carbon footprint.

Motheroffourdragons · 14/07/2017 13:21

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TheaSaurass · 14/07/2017 13:28

A sound point. lol

But hopefully as the manufacturing etc in China comes back to Europe and America, if Corbyn isn't in power here and declared war on any company making a profit, we'd be in a good position as a low tax economy to bring that investment/jobs here - and 'offset' against trade with our newer, less bum holey friends, than those currently trying to punish us..

TheaSaurass · 14/07/2017 13:32

We voted to leave, we have to adapt, businesses have had to do that for centuries due to dumb governments or changes in the political landscape - and despite the rollocks that all trade will stop between us and them without a deal - businesses will got on with it, especially the vast amount of companies (outside the FTSE 100) who either don't trade with Europe, or can find similar markets outside the EU 'collective'.

Motheroffourdragons · 14/07/2017 13:38

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squishysquirmy · 14/07/2017 13:39

I think the only way our manufacturing industry could realistically compete with China's is if we reduce the wages and conditions in our factories to the Chinese standard. Yes, we can still compete (and do) with more high precision, niche goods but we can't manufacture the bulk of products as cheaply as China do.

Motheroffourdragons · 14/07/2017 13:41

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Motheroffourdragons · 14/07/2017 13:43

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Carolinesbeanies · 14/07/2017 13:48

"Someone hasn't heard of the Customs Union..."

Someone doesnt understand the customs union....

Flofferton · 14/07/2017 13:52

But hopefully as the manufacturing etc in China comes back to Europe and America

Really??

The only way that is happening is if you manage to source a time machine and head back a few decades.

Carolinesbeanies · 14/07/2017 13:53

"IF we left with NO deal, the latter will happen, at least in the immediate aftermath."

No it really really wont, and screaming hysterically doesnt make that true. This is exactly the issue with 'theoretical armchair' analysts. It disregards reality.

Carolinesbeanies · 14/07/2017 13:53

"Someone has just got a new word, histrionic, and can't stop using it."

Yep, its pretty perfect isnt it. Smile

Motheroffourdragons · 14/07/2017 14:00

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notangelinajolie · 14/07/2017 14:04

The UK has been shifting imports to a more global ecomomy for years.

Motheroffourdragons · 14/07/2017 14:09

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Carolinesbeanies · 14/07/2017 14:10

"Hopefully a smaller carbon footprint."

Clearly a smaller carbon footprint? Math, youre starting to answer your own questions.

"I'm not sure how it is possible to think that trade with the E27 will continue as it does now. Have you ever even seen the number of european lorries crossing the channel every day ? This is a huge amount of trade which is all of a sudden will be subject to far more stringent checks than currently - that's if we want to take back control of our borders. "

That is fundamentally misunderstanding how customs control currently works. I wont explain again as it simply sails right over certain remainers heads. What is in the back of a Polish lorry, is absolutely relevant. Why do remainers persist in believing if an eu reg plate is on a vehicle, they simply drive round europe unimpeded? They dont. There are already stringent checks in place regards goods being transported due to huge variances in tax and excise levels on goods, goods within bandings and goods outside bandings etc etc etc etc. Customs is currently controlled on the particular goods, the country of origin and the destination. Not controlled by EU reg plate with an EU passported driver.

notangelinajolie · 14/07/2017 14:14

www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Reducing-carbon-footprint-report.pdf

Reducing Carbon Footprint.
Committee on Climate Change 2013

Historically, UK imports have gradually shifted away from the rest of Europe towards emerging
economies. For example, in 1990 UK imports from emerging economies comprised less
than 20% of total imports, while by 2010 this had increased to 30%. This reflects the growing
prominence of emerging economies in global trade and is likely to continue to 2050, with a
diminishing role for advanced economies (Europe and other OECD countries). We assume that
UK import demand continues to shift towards emerging economies, although at less than
recent rates (e.g. import growth from emerging economies might be expected to plateau at
some point as wage differentials converge, etc.) such that by 2050, 60% of UK imports are from
emerging economies, including China and India

Motheroffourdragons · 14/07/2017 14:15

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CardinalSin · 14/07/2017 14:19

"Someone doesnt understand the customs union"

Yes, the person who said "Supply chain, has always worked on an origin/destination process. There is no difference between being in the EU and out of the EU" clearly doesn't have the first clue about it...