Brexit consequences

[Spinflight]

Can't find the old one, despite a search. Hence a year on...

I started it to compare the doom and gloom predictions from people who should know better, especially the treasury, to actual observable facts.

Thus far the treasury predicted our borrowing costs would soar by over 130 points. In fact they're down about 100.

No trade deals possible before (I forget the date they said, was far in the future though) compared to actual negotiations beginning with the USA later this month with the president firmly behind them. Canada, New Zealand, Australia, India, South Korea and several others I've forgotten have shown a great desire for a deal quickly.

Ftse 100 and 250 are well up, just shy of 7500.

Best of all from a macro economic perspective is inflation touching 3%. When you are £1800 billion in debt rating that away with inflation is far preferable to actually paying it off.

Growth has dropped a bit, though nowhere near the instant recession that was predicted. Bit early to say though this is likely due to the referendum.

External investment is actually nicely up, with several major companies announcing various large commitments.

Things could be rosier, though it would be a struggle to describe them generally as bad, quite contrary to 'informed' opinions. Even the oecd recently ate their pre referendum words.

Spinflight

Re your "The EU you see rather forgets what we bring to the table. Take merely one aspect, Intel and reconnaissance."

In my opinion there is a disconnect between the arch Federalists in Brussels like Verhofstadt, Barnier and Juncker - and EU businesses and citizens - as Brussels bureaucrats don't give a flying feck about 'security'.

Trump recent visits to the EUs 'front line with Russia got a huge cheer from the crowds and some leaders, as they realise that in relying on the EU to protect them, Brussels is as useful as a strawberry flavoured bum wipe. IMO

Noone stands to lose any trade cardinal.

The USA trades with the EU, despite not being in the EU. Being in the EU though makes it more costly for people around the world to trade with us, because of the protectionist tarifs the EU imposes and collects.

It's actually a question of returns. Presently you might get better returns due to no tariffs within the single market.

Once we drop the drawbridge though we can invest and trade, especially with India, and anywhere that offer higher returns and growth.

Think of it as a car boot sale. We pay the EU to be in it who staff the gate. We can buy and sell free of charge to other cars. If however someone outside the EU wants to sell stuff to us then they have to pay a percentage to the EU. If we want to sell something to someone outside the EU then we have to pay their tariffs.

Out of the EU we collect all the tariffs except where we have trade deals instead of the EU and can set them to whatever we please,which given our commitment to free trade will be low.

The EU sells us a lot more than we sell them so they'll pay us a lot in tariffs.

CardinalSin

Re your “And can we please stop with this ridiculous "the EU trades more with us than we do with them" nonsense! The percentage of trade the EU stands to lose is considerably smaller than the other way around. Trying to spin this by using absolute terms is lying disingenuity at its most extreme”

In cash terms it is a indeed a fact as a percentage of total trade, it is not surprising that 17 whatever countries have a smaller share trading here, than the UK trading there.

But unfortunately for EU citizens the non elected by them farts in Brussels don’t seem to care that the UK with 4.5% unemployment mainly trades with the Eurozone countries, like France with around 9.6% unemployment. Italy 12% and Spain 18.4% - and even in countries like Germany with 3.9% unemployment, their businesses do not want Brussels to play games – as they don’t want those unemployment levels to RISE further.

“EU referendum: Trade curbs 'foolish' if UK votes Leave, says German industry”

Especially as the UK will no longer be a social safety valve of employment for bright young things, the Eurozone employment rate has been letting down. IMO

Perhaps this will help with understanding Cardinal. Theres only one country we need to 'negotiate' with, the bankers and controlling top table of the eu, Germany. Hows it looking for them on this infographic?

I'm sorry, you cannot sell the same land every year to pay our current bills

Correct, TheaSauruss.

That is why, once the NHS and all the other public services are sold off to American conglomerates - because the price of any UK-US trade deal will be a huge 'Fire Sale' sign planted in the UK - there will be nothing left to sell off, and there will be precious little corporate tax revenue either.

The UK fondly imagines that the term 'special relationship' implies equality and interests in common, but the business of the US is profit and the UK will be screwed over.

I notice you include a lot of buzzwords in your posts - 'Marxist/Marxism', 'non-elected farts'... lots more..

Is every political idea to the left of the Tories 'Marxist'?
Are British civil servants elected?

Once we drop the drawbridge though we can invest and trade, especially with India, and anywhere that offer higher returns and growth.

LOL at that.
India is not interested in trade unless it comes with lots of opportunities for Indians to live and work in the UK with a guarantee that they can make plans, buy a car or residential property, bring spouses along, send children to school, etc.
The ever-savvy PM has unfortunately not given India any hope that this will happen.

Reports of racist attacks and racist sentiments on the part of British yobs have made many foreigners very wary of considering a future in the UK.

In any case, India is far more interested in trading with the EU, which is a huge market, plus the EU has to be sure that Indian trade with the UK will not result in Indian goods arriving in the EU - items assembled in the UK from Indian components or items that would undercut EU-produced items, or items that fail safety or other standards - so there may be far less of a market for goods to be sold on form the UK. If goods cannot be sold on then the attraction of the UK from India's pov is greatly reduced.

As the UK economy shrinks (reduced tax revenue when the City loses passporting, curtailment of EU trade, shrinking welfare amounts leading to less spending, inflation leading to less spending and layoffs, leading to less spending, higher interest rates leading to a housing slump and many other factors will lead to this) the attraction of the UK as a place to sell Indian goods will also decrease.

The UK is about to find itself in a massive Catch 22 when it comes to trade.

.... So....

Not sure I have this right so best to check..

A trade deal with the USA is bad for... Let's be generous and say reasons.

And... A trade deal with India is bad because... Even flimsier reasons.

I suspect your attempts at schadenfreude are going to end badly. Rofl

Carol - But but but - according to Spin, we have so much stuff to export to everywhere in the world! How come there are countries that export more to us than we do them? And how come we're suddenly going to be able to export trillions of pounds of goods to other countries that we apparently must just be stockpiling at the moment?

Yes, we are still going to trade with EU countries when we leave (although it's obviously going to be a fuck of a lot more difficult and expensive), but the simple fact is that the EU countries will have 26 other countries that it will be easier and cheaper to buy from instead - we aren't! I really don't understand why Brexiteers find this so difficult to understand.

And Spin - you are sounding like an idiot now.

A trade deal with the US could be good (although the much derided "experts" reckon that we could only increase our trade with the US by about 0.2% at the most, due to geographical reasons), however, a trade deal where we are desperate for any deal with the US is absolutely 100% certainly going to be awful for the UK.

Similarly, a trade deal with India could be a very good and beneficial deal for both sides. However, it will definitely involve more migration from India, and we already know that for most many Brexiteers that migration is a no-no, even for the non-racist ones.

India says UK free trade deal will take years

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39103078

An American trade deal raises the prospect of more private involvement in British health care

www.economist.com/news/britain/21716662-question-what-firm-would-invest-national-health-service-american-trade-deal

hth

howabout Wed 12-Jul-17 09:07:37
On US and meat imports I am unclear why they would be able to compete successfully with either UK production or current imports?

The answer is $$$$$$.

Far cheaper American meat can drive native producers out of business. Then with native producers gone, the American products become more expensive.

America is the country that gave the world the Walmart model of doing business. Why do you think the UK will be treated any differently from anywhere else America does business with?

Theresa May has refused to guarantee she will not water down food standards or open up the NHS to US firms in a trade deal with Donald Trump.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-us-trade-deal-donald-trump-theresa-may-nhs-privatised-food-standards-beef-chicken-a7545536.html

Australia was forced to make concessions in its scheme for public drugs-purchasing, as part of a free-trade agreement with America in 2004.

Quote from The High Price of “Free” Trade: U.S. Trade Agreements and Access to Medicines, a paper accepted for publication in the Journal of Law, Medicine and Ethics: apps.who.int/medicinedocs/documents/s20165en/s20165en.pdf

" If the U.S. is ultimately successful in the pursuit of its broader agenda, this will lead to higher prices, increased expenditure, poorer access to medicines, and — ultimately — poorer health outcomes among its trading partners. "

As members of the five eyes network we have access to American Intel from the nsa, cia, the massive network of spy satellites as well as our own considerable capabilities and those of the other anglosphere nations.

No EU country on the other hand has any assets of this type.

You have not heard of NATO then, SpinFlight?

Or Germany's SAR-Lupe satellites, which have been fully operational since 2008. The system will be replaced by a second generation of satellites called SARah between 2017 and 2019.

Or the EU's own satellite capabilities -
The European Union Satellite Centre (EU SatCen; previously EUSC) was initially founded in 1992 as the Western European Union Satellite Centre. It was incorporated as an agency of the European Union (EU) on 1 January 2002. It is located in Torrejón de Ardoz, in the vicinity of Madrid, Spain.

The centre supports the decision-making of the European Union in the field of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), including crisis management missions and operations, by providing products and services resulting from the exploitation of relevant space assets and collateral data, including satellite and aerial imagery, and related services. In June 2014, a new Council Decision replaced the former Council Joint Action of 2001 to modify SatCen’s mission, aligning it with the evolution of the user demand and the developments of the EU’s space activities relevant to CFSP (ref. 1), making it an essential interface with the European Geospatial Intelligence (GEOINT, ref. 2) community.

The staff of the Centre, headed by Director Pascal Legai, consists of experienced image analysts, geospatial specialists and supporting personnel, recruited from EU Member States. In addition, experts seconded from Member States work at the SatCen for periods ranging from six months to three years, and temporary staff are recruited as needed.

SatCen assures technical development activities in direct support to its operational activities, as well as specialised training for image analysts.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_Satellite_Centre

Nato doesn't equal access to Intel GoogleFu.

You missed out the current (very small) French satellites and their replacements to be launched circa 2020.

Airbus is the primary European manufacturer, though the expertise for such is all based in the UK. Stevenage and Plymouth for the military stuff with other firms mainly around Cambridge for civil uses.

They'd find the access to tech strangely constricted unless they play nice. :)

One year after the referendum unemployment has actually fallen by 1%.

A simple Google search for brexit unemployment predictions shows many more in the same timescale, some higher, some lower but all expecting unemployment to rise considerably.

You understand that Brexit hasn't yet happened yet, SpinFlight?

mathanxiety

Re your ^"That is why, once the NHS and all the other public services are sold off to American conglomerates - because the price of any UK-US trade deal will be a huge 'Fire Sale' sign planted in the UK - there will be nothing left to sell off, and there will be precious little corporate tax revenue either."

As they used to say on Blue Peter, 'here was one I prepared earlier'.

Which brings me to that old left wing ‘chestnut’ that America will take over the NHS.

Apart from the obvious point that no company can ‘take over’ a State service if the government don’t put it up for sale, Trump is a businessman, under a Conservative government putting piecemeal NHS services up for tender the private sector can provide cheaper, there ain’t much money in it – it was under Labour and their abuse of the Private Finance Initiative, where private companies could make up to 71% profit - so based on records in power (rather than use of mantras), CURRENTLY under this government, the NHS is in much safer hands.

mathanxiety

Re your ”Is every political idea to the left of the Tories 'Marxist'?

Certainly not, only those policies/manifesto with the clear stamp of a self confessed Marxist.

“Exclusive: John McDonnell welcomed the financial crash and called himself a Marxist newly found footage shows”

“John McDonnell: There’s ‘A Lot To Learn’ From Karl Marx”
“He has previously said: “I am a Marxist”

Let's see.... Airbus you say?

www.ft.com/content/77e6e934-c571-11e6-8f29-9445cac8966f?mhq5j=e1
Critical to the UK aerospace industry's stability are:
Access to highly skilled EU labour,
Access to Europe’s research projects and funding,
The relationship with Airbus.

The UK aerospace is facing a Brexit induced crisis.

Pulling up the drawbridge means shooting yourself in the foot.

The NHS will no longer be a state service when Trump's cronies are finished with it. They don't call it 'the healthcare industry' for nothing, in the US.

They will make money in private health insurance, and hospital charges will go through the roof. No insurance? Expect a bill for your doctor visit, your hospital stay, and your prescriptions. What is left of a public service will be poorly funded, with long waits and low staff morale.
Oh wait.

Your last paragraph didn't have an obvious subject/object so I am not really sure what your point is, though you seem to be labouring under the mistaken assumption that the Tories are committed to maintaining a functioning health service free to all at point of service. There is absolutely no evidence of this.

OK, all this "we can leave with no deal and trade with India and be fine" is bollocks.
Hopefully, we will leave with deals in place. Some kind of transition arrangement would be very sensible, but not popular with hard line brexiteers.

But IF we walk with no deal, what happens in the short term?
What happens in April 2019?

What if my employers were due to send me to the Hague for a meeting/conference? Will I be able to get off that plane in April? Will that plane even be able to land in Schipol?

What about the delivery of tinned tomatoes due to arrive at my local supermarket? Will the lorry they are on be able to enter the UK? Will the haulagers know what the policy is, will they know where they are allowed to go and what they can deliver?

What about a UK tap manufacturer, that imports a certain seal from Germany? Will they be able to meet their orders? If their consignment cannot enter the UK, will they get a refund on what they have paid? It is, after all, not the supplier's fault.
What will happen to the exports of that business? They can't ship to the EU anymore. They can't ship abroad until new deals are arranged. Will the government communicate clearly and promptly with businesses to let them know who the can and can't export to? While it gets sorted out, will the company have enough capital to keep paying the wages of their staff? What if they are a SME? Will there be government assistance to help them?

Scale that up to thousands of travellers, travelling for work and leisure between the UK and the EU. Include many more people transferring flights within the UK, or within the EU.

Scale it up to include many more food imports (27% of our food comes from the EU).

Scale it up to include thousands of businesses; manufacturers who can no longer import/export their products and components; companies within the service industry who suddenly lose all their EU custom.

Yeah, you say we can replace all trade with India and the US, grow and tin our own tomatoes etc. But even being ridiculously optimistic about that and assuming we get some awesome fast deals, do you have any idea of the logistics involved in transferring all our trade to those countries? These things normally evolve and shift over time, changes are phased in. You can't flick a switch and suddenly replace all EU imports with ones from elsewhere, nor can you double UK food production overnight just by saying "lets double UK food production".

While you're waiting for all these amazing new deals to happen, businesses are folding, investors are losing confidence, people are losing their jobs, supermarket shelves are emptying, travellers are stranded, planes are stuck on runways, and the world is watching us look like twats.

Leaving without a deal would be very bad for the EU, it would also be very inconvenient to the rest of the world, too (I am sure they will be greatful) but I cannot over-emphasise how disastrous it would be for the UK. If you cannot understand that, and refuse to even acknowledge the questions in my post (a mere sample of the uncertainty that would ensue) then you are either irredeemably stupid, or you are doing a very good impression of being so.

I don't think the USA will take over the NHS. They will only take over the most profitable bits....

"While you're waiting for all these amazing new deals to happen, businesses are folding, investors are losing confidence, people are losing their jobs, supermarket shelves are emptying, travellers are stranded, planes are stuck on runways, and the world is watching us look like twats."

Whilst I admire your enthusiasm squishy none of the fears you have articulated are based in reality.

Sadly project fear had real consequences for ordinary people, stoking anxiety around areas where none is needed.

Indeed this thread is, I hope, showing that the prophesy of doom merchants were entirely wrong about their previous predictions.

As they are now about finer details. Some doing the rounds include cancer patients will be unable to continue their radiation therapy and EU migrants will be split up from their families.

It isn't my job to counter every wolf whistle to the credulous though it saddens me that some people actually believe them.

Squishy

Re your “I don't think the USA will take over the NHS. They will only take over the most profitable bits....”

What is the U.S. going to do to ‘take over’ the NHS bits in any form, invade???

Apart from the perpetually obvious anti Tory scare stories that either involve Conservative NHS privatisation, or it will all collapse within 1-month after the election – you are clearly getting the RECORD of the two main political parties mixed up.

• Wasn’t it Labour with the 2000 NHS Reform that opened up the NHS to the competition of private sector health care (and NHS staff better options), that DID take the easier treatments, often with huge tent or mobile treatment centres on hospital premises - and left the NHS with the more complex ones?

• Wasn’t it Labour that signed all those highly profitable Private Finance Initiative contracts worth up to £222 billion, draining money from government services departments for up to 50-years, or was that the Conservatives?

Record over soundbites, and you can’t go wrong in my view.

Spin, I hope that those predictions won't turn into reality, because I hope that either we will leave with a deal in place, or some kind of transition agreement. The scenarios I illustrated are what would happen if we left WITH NO DEAL WHATSOEVER. What do you think would actually happen if we woke up in April with no deal in place? Hopefully, EU/UK migrants wouldn't be directly affected because those negotiations are separate from the ones on trade.
I would like you to explain how business as usual could possibly continue, in the event that we left with no deal. If we went to bed with the previous EU deals in place, and woke up with them gone.

If you walk off a cliff, you make a big splat.

Well, it was the Tories (in coalition) that allowed the NHS to use their facilities for up to 49% of the time for private health work.

I think that stands up as "record"...