Trump

[claig]

Another Trump thread for those who want to discuss what it all means

Article from another thread

"History Tells Us What Will Happen Next With Brexit And Trump"

www.huffingtonpost.com/tobias-stone/history-tells-us-what-will-brexit-trump_b_11179774.html?

Inflation means T bills are worth less, China can't dump. US improves liquidity, dollar inflow. Position to buy back treasury bonds and cut ties with China? Do you think there is chance of persuading investment of entire offshore holdings in return for tax amnesty and payment of interest? I haven't thought about Asia yet

Then again a regional currency crisis always means T bills are worth more.

Which is the greater force? I'd be guessing.

"Do you think there is chance of persuading investment of entire offshore holdings in return for tax amnesty and payment of interest?"

It wouldn't even need the payment of interest.

It doesn't seem as though Trump accepts the neoliberal consensus that trade is not a zero sum game. Whenever he talks about it he does so in win and lose terms, which might merely be simplification though he clearly understands the complexities.

Weaponised dollars? Doesn't seem unlikely does it....

Tectonic plates are shifting Spin!
Trump would assess in those (commercial) terms I agree but he appears to be doing some interesting thinking micro/ macro.

I think what will flummox people is that he won't go with a blanket policy or joined up anything but will go with a series of one by one deals that will form a pattern and inform the next step. Pre-planned-off-the-cuff if you like.

Thing is there's already capital flight from China. The foreign students in the US are being told not to return by their parents who funnel cash to them. Over invoicing through Hong Kong is another phenomenon. Also a lot of Chinese companies opening up abroad and then subtly winding down their mainland business.

It all hints at little confidence in the yuan.

" he appears to be doing some interesting thinking micro/ macro."

It's almost as though he has a long term economic plan. Scary! Doubt it'll catch on.

What are your thoughts on the euro area?

"What are your thoughts on the euro area?"

Personally, Im still watching Greece. WIth everything else going on, Greece has taken a back seat, and the impact of bailout after bailout is going under the radar. Will Greece get further bailouts? Yep. As many as needed. Are Greeks watching world events, hopefull that the beginning of the end of the great EU/euro experiment is over? Im not Greek, but Id be keeping my fingers crossed.

What should concern us is how precarious Irelands position is also. When a third party controls a 'soveriegn' nations currency, you remove that nations ability to govern, (which is what the euro intended). Tspiras has nothing to bargain with. He is utterly impotent and we should take note.
Will Estonia, for example, support the great 'bailout' policy? This isnt just going to be Greece. What is clear, is to raise the funds needed to support these bailout packages, the 'stronger' economies, none of whom are in the black, will need to raise their debt. Failure is just around the corner IMO.

Todays debt 'clock'.

www.debtclocks.eu/public-debt-and-budget-deficits-comparison-of-the-eu-member-states.html

I think China is part of his planned ME realignment and the yuan will suffer. And EU - I am trying to remain impartial here - but I think if there is a move away from austerity politics and a return of inflation then the EU will be isolated in its QE stance but it has no choice. Markets are pointing to sub parity with $ by new year. Political climate in EU very unsettled. I think the euro will tank and I don't know what its path to recovery will be. What do you think?

I think they'll abandon NATO, hastily hash some sort of defence cooperation together and then compete with each other for who can pay the least into it. The alternative is being bullied by Trump and I don't think they can afford it politically or economically.

Doubt their banks will last the winter, especially if dollars are repatriated. One of the Italian banks has already lost 98% of it's value and is probably still overpriced.

Bad time to be raising debt, bonds aren't in fashion now so yeah, seems bad. Add in global trade contracting which will put lots of Germans out of work, perfect storm with the migrant crisis unresolved, high unemployment in the South and political instability.

After the banks fail... Ask me again in 50 years.

Do the EU have any path to political survival?

Political yes. Frankly I think they'll continue to use any crisis as an excuse for further integration.

Fiscally though you still won't get much of the Southern eurozone paying their taxes without thumbscrews and monetarily it looks like a perfect storm brewing.

You can't solve a debt crisis with more debt but as we've seen in the past banks fail and politicians are remarkably quick to hand over as much cash as they want.

Potentially if AfD got into power then they could take Germany out of the euro which would even up some of the imbalances but as it currently stands monetary union is a house of cards. A lot of those imbalances were contained within the payments systems though if Germany goes into recession how long before they want the money back? I don't think it was ever resolved..

Also there is immense grief in Eastern Europe at the way Germany enriches itself with their workforce, would you believe some are actually calling on France to take more of a leadership role? Last time I heard France and leadership in the same sentence was something to do with buying the least soap in Europe. And then you have the upcoming elections in France.

Bear in mind when we voted out our bonds dropped through the floor, and European ones rose considerably. That we were more credit worthy out of Europe was obvious to the markets.

So what could they do? More austerity? Don't need to be a genius to see that would cause trouble, they're just about out of the last bout. Put up taxes, capital flight as Hollande discovered when London became the second largest French city.

Purely on political survival I suspect we'll find they're strangely resilient. The Poles for instance voted a Eurosceptic party into power, only to find them turn into good Euro-peons overnight. Sound familiar? Italy being a bit politically unstable wouldn't help, but it's hardly a surprise to anyone if it does happen. Spain finally has a government, or did last time I looked! Le Pen would be a significant problem, and Wilders who has a big lead in the polls.

Even with the Italian referendum in a couple of weeks and Dutch elections in March, with France in April though it's the economics I'd be looking at.

There's lots of ways to spin things and I rather suspect they'll gang closer together in opposition to Trump, who will I think be quite preachy towards Europe.

Incredible stuff. Trump called the media in for a meeting.

The servants who think they are big shots trouped in to the meeting thinking they were going to receive a free lunch. What they got was a roasting, Trump style.

The Oxbridge teams at the BBC and CHannel 4 News were not present, but what Trump told the US media could well have applied to the teams too.

'Donald Trump’s media summit was a ‘f—ing firing squad’

Donald Trump scolded media big shots during an off-the-record Trump Tower sitdown on Monday, sources told The Post.

“It was like a f–ing firing squad,” one source said of the encounter.

“Trump started with [CNN chief] Jeff Zucker and said ‘I hate your network, everyone at CNN is a liar and you should be ashamed,’ ” the source said.
...
“The meeting took place in a big board room and there were about 30 or 40 people, including the big news anchors from all the networks,” the other source said.

“Trump kept saying, ‘We’re in a room of liars, the deceitful dishonest media who got it all wrong.’ He addressed everyone in the room calling the media dishonest, deceitful liars. He called out Jeff Zucker by name and said everyone at CNN was a liar, and CNN was [a] network of liars,” the source said.

“Trump didn’t say [NBC reporter] Katy Tur by name, but talked about an NBC female correspondent who got it wrong, then he referred to a horrible network correspondent who cried when Hillary lost who hosted a debate – which was Martha Raddatz who was also in the room.”

The stunned reporters tried to get a word in edgewise"

nypost.com/2016/11/21/donald-trumps-media-summit-was-a-f-ing-firing-squad/

Incredible stuff. Trump starts as he means to go on. Trump 2016!

Claig you really are an actual bona fide fascist, aren't you?

Get your blackshirts on everyone, we're finally suppressing the media.

You'll still have the Guardian, Kaija

You really have no idea what is happening do you.

Thanks Claig, I missed that news, was too distracted by his rising approval ratings and the TTIP RIP announcement. And his Nige love in of course.

Kaija, as far as I can see, Rupert Murdoch that well known social philanthropist and some of his well connected brethren, are being called out. About time.

Look a little harder.

Addressing the nation... via Youtube!

I looked a bit harder and found this:

www.politico.com/story/2016/11/donald-trump-popular-poll-231694

Spin, think that speech must have done down well. (Although it's only a poll)

A poll that says equal numbers view him unfavourably as favourably.

Somewhat unusual for a president elect to say the least.

Yeah, RIP to TTIP.

I wonder whether our bremoaner brethren are going to inform Trump that no-one will want a trade deal with the US and it'll take more than 15 years to conclude one.

Would make a great piece of telly if Channel 4 news did it. :D

So, Trump Spunkers, did he impart which media he does approve of?