Do you think the Tories will get a majority in 2015?

[lottieandmia]

?

Or are we more likely to have another coalition?

Just been reading that Labour only need a 2% swing overall to get an overall majority. Which makes sense given the votes in 2010.

Yes, because they have gerrymandered the electoral boundaries.

I really, really hope that the Scottish vote Yes, because it reduces the possibility of future Labour governments considerably.

at Boris saving the world!!

I'm guessing it'll be a generational battle which will rely on the young getting out to vote if the Tories are to be ousted.

Agree with MoreBeta that it could be a messy situation next year…

Yes, Maria Miller needs to go.

Royal Mail sell off, Badger cull debacle, rampant cronyism, Maria Miller - jeez how much more would it take for the public not to vote Tory.
Frankly Labour could put up a stuffed monkey and I'd rather vote for that than David Cameron.

Ah yes Beamur but they haven't touched the boomers and nor do they intend to (not until after the next election anyway!!). Amazing what you can overlook if you are sitting pretty!

And the NHS Cameron's Challenge

The NHA Party has been formed to stand against Tory cabinet members and draw attention to the Tory sell off. The founders are NHS doctors.

A Tory / UKIP coalition might just happen. What a dreadful thought!

Great summary MoreBeta. Reasonable predictions. I find Boris alarming. When he was first elected as Mayor I thought people genuinely fell for the bumbling idiot act. Now I know people understand he's super clever, very cunning and out for supremacy yet they still find they whole thing funny. Funny is definitely not a reason to vote in politics (unless you're talking about Eddie Izzard).

I don't find the lack of any real representation across any of the major parties amusing at all. Like many posters, for the first time in my voting history I feel ambivalent because of the track record, uninspiring leadership and thin policies of the political classes.

Pans freezing energy bills is a non starter I think - I would put money on bills going up considerably before the freeze (if possible) and then massively afterwards...to make up for the freeze period. I would vote against that!
I would be more inclined to give OFGEM more clout...and seriously look at the level of competition and clarity. I am now absolutely convinced that the big energy companies are all taking the piss, aim to confuse you so much you have no idea what you are paying for/if you are on a good deal.

I am renovating a house, so low usage - it was with Scottish Gas. Introduction of standing charge has led to me switching. More than once SG told me it was Ofgem who had forced them to introduce a standing charge - which is true - but not at the level it is. If I didn't know that anyway I would have believed that no matter who I was with I would have to pay the £180pa standing charge... (thank you moneysavingexpert!)
The switch has been a nightmare - SG sent me a bill 5 days before the switch over date - I wasn't due one for months - then another 2 bills with changes to standing charges and a price change. I've got a Phd (so supposedly reasonably intelligent) and it took me almost an hour, when I had time to look at it, to get my head round what was going on - to find I've overpaid them. Which they blamed the new provider for. I blame them for bombarding me with unclear bills! New provider has just sent me an estimated bill - never asked me for a reading - way off actual usage...so now I'm going to have to chase that...
When I got my SG bill for the house I live in, because I changed how I pay for a slightly better deal it had so many different rates etc for both Gas & Electric it took me 40 mins to work out how much gas & electricity I'd used in a quarter ...
It is complete and utter bollocks - no-one should be expected to spend so much time and effort and brain power on something that could be so simple...and I am computer literate and will make time to understand my bills - I can see many many people being completely lost...and just paying - probably more than they need to.
And as for the rip off rates for pre-pay meters...

Re-nationalising the rail network - am I the only person who remembers British rail and their 'customer service' ...if you have ever been on a train delayed in a station for 2 hrs, no announcements, guards hiding from passengers, not even floor space to sit down - too scared to get off in case it left without you, throwing people out of the loos if you needed a wee...the delay was annoying. the lack of communication was infuriating... and the countless other times I had problems - mainly with staff that were anything but helpful. Recent train travel has been fantastic in comparison ...the staff can't help delays etc but they can at least be sympathetic and try to give you information...

No idea of who to vote for they are all useless career politicians ...feel a bit despondent actually...

A Tory / UKIP coalition won't happen!

I'm going to spoil my vote, effectively hopefully. If there isn't a way to do that, I'll vote Green.

Boris Johnson has said he will not try for leadership I thought? Whenever I think of him the prevailing picture is of him peddling his bike away from a reporter asking about his latest affair. He certainly is comical, which is not a reason to think he would be any good for the country!!

I cannot believe people are silly enough to vote for UKIP. I'll have some of the hard drugs too if there was ever a coalition between them and the Tories what a terrible thought that is...

Hasn't David Milliband retired from politics now?

I really hope not.

The only thing keeping me going in teaching at the moment is the thought that hopefully Gove will be out next year.

Surely just the word Gove is enough to make people not vote conservative! Please.

Haven't got the foggiest who I do want to win though .

Yep. All my teacher friends HATE Gove...

Labour won't win. The Tories have successfully branded them as the "welfare" party. They are not seen as representing aspiration and wealth promotion. They have internal in-fighting over strategy, and the same old useless faces which are disliked by much of the public who rememner them from last time - Douglas Alexander, Harman, Balls, Cooper, Burnham etc etc - a total disaster.

The economy will improve and even though Cameron is weak and sacked nobody over the flooding or anywhere else, he will reap the rewards of Osborne's work. But UKIP are a problem for the Tories. I think Cameron will be removed as leader after the Euro elections in which UKIP should thrash them, and I think that the Tories and UKIP might make some sort of deal on standing candidates in various constituencies, in which case together, they will easily win.

Boris cannot beat Farage because Boris is an actor. Louise Mensch mentioned on her twitter account that Boris cannot become Tory leader because he is essentially pro-Europe. He is an actor and may pretend to change, but it won't wash. Boris is part of the elite, he went to Eton and Oxbridge etc, and therefore he is probably a green too, and that won't go down well with real tory voters who are against the "green crap" pushed by the elites. Farage is in tune with the public and the only person the Tories have who comes close to Farage's connection with the public is David Davis. But the elite in the Tory Party may not let him gain power as he does not follow their lead.

Although, Cameron is pro Europe and he became leader and beat David Davis in the leadership election after the media reported that his speech was better than Davis's which convinced many of the constituency party members that it was true.

So, I don't rule out the same thing happening again, with the Tory elite and their media chums boosting up Boris even if he is green and pro Europe. He could make it as leader among the Tory MPs etc, but the real test is with Tory voters, many of whom now prefer the genuineness of Farage over the actors from Eton.

I think Gove would make a better leader than Boris. Gove is confident, clever and funny and he would give Farage a run for his money.

Farage says that if UKIP does not do well in the European elections, then he may lose his role as leader of UKIP. Farage also thinks that Cameron and Clegg may lose their leadership positions this year.

Miliband will benefit from all of this turmoil if it happens. I like him and think he is a good leader, but unforunately for him, his team of gruesome faces and losers will condemn his party to defeat.

"And if Ukip was to do poorly and Ukip was to trail back into third place then I think that would be curtains for me as leader," he said.

...

Farage also boldly claimed that both Cameron and Clegg could face leadership challenges this year if the Conservatives and Lib Dems do badly in the polls.

"I've spoken to Tory MPs in the North of England who know unless something big changes they are gonners," he said.

"I would suggest that these elections matter to Cameron because they will highlight the strategy laid out with his speech last January [where he pledged an in/out referendum] isn't working."

Farage added: "But it really matters to Cameron because if those people think their leader does not look like a potential winner then the prospect of 46 signatures being gathered on the backbenches over the course of the summer months are perhaps rather higher than most commentators are currently giving credit for."

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/01/23/nigel-farage-ukip-leader-european-elections_n_4654232.html

Ukip will have the European Elections sown up.

But Ukip may say whatever they want about leaving Europe, but FACT they cannot do anything about it - other than claim a honking big MEP salary and expenses.

So it beats the pooh out of me why Ukip has so much air time and no one mentions that on air, other than to limit their own damage at the European Election.

But If the collective efforts of the main party’s coming up to a General Election where Ukip flip flop their domestic policies before the ink is dry on their manifestos, cannot get that over to the electorate, they don’t deserve to be called a ‘main’ political party.

The electorate no longer trusts the "main" parties. They think they are a shower of charlatans and spinners. The only thing the public thinks the "main" parties can "get over" the public is their expenses.

But there's a new true party on the block and there's gonna be an awful shock as the spinners take a knock.

I hope so. The economy is going the right way and Labour just throw money at people for doing nothing. It solves nothing and is just a vote spinner.

They have made a few poor decisions (expenses mp and the free school meals for all) but on the whole they have promoted that working pays and that people should aim higher for themselves and their families. There is a lot of support for the cuts and even Labour agree they wont reverse them.

Depends on Scotland. Most likely outcomes imo are Lab/Lib coalition or Con/UKIP Coalition. Con needs to absorb Farage now imo and the Tory Right needs to join ranks - there are some fantastic people on the back benches who have been true to their convictions and whose time will come - Liam Fox, David Davis, Richard Bacon, Paul Beresford - amongst others.

ttosca …..ME to “stop making a fool of myself”?

In a main two party system, either Miliband or Cameron will be the NEXT Prime Minister.

Yet you are either in denial or (despite my best efforts) STILL ignorant to the damage Labour’s policies BY DESIGN, not during a financial crisis, did this country, choosing to concentrate on welfare/benefits issues.

As noble as taking the Labour moral high ground on that issue, despite ever being told exactly how they’d have handled it, have you not grasped that if Labour had been returned to power in 2010, or come back in 2015 with no policies but catchy mantras – this country will end up bankrupt and Labour will end up calling in the IMF as they did in 1976 – and then this country will find DEBTORS will be forcing welfare/benefit cuts to balance this country’s books via THEIR reforms.

So in your parlance; Labour economy wrecking ‘scum' calling in IMF 'reformers’ later, or Conservative reformers, that will be the country’s choice, it is that simple.

Claig...when are we going to see Ukip's 2015 policies to see their juggling act of 3-party politics/policies to get votes of your own?

Try as you may. you can not be all things to all people, even if there is no danger of being in power and being held to account - so lets see how many votes are lost there first.

If Labour have been dragging their Scotland 'no' feet, confident they can rest on their need to only get 35% of the vote, laurels - it is time for them to get their coffee together, never mind sniff it.

'They have made a few poor decisions...'

So I suppose it depends on what job you do and the services you use on how you feel here. Both DH and I have been made redundant during the term of this government. We both work for charity/support services and now clinging on to any temporary part time work for all its worth. We work very hard and this government has put us into a vulnerable situation financially - seemingly we have been punished for working for the benefit of others rather than for big business

Not only that, the service users we support have lost that service and ARE suffering. Many of them didn't choose to be sick/disabled or badly parented but the current lack of service provision will cost far more in the longer term in terms of custody, ill health etc than it would have done to continue funding the support that we offer. These are what I call 'poor decisions' but they won't be felt for some time to come.

However imperfect labour are, you cannot get away from the fact that the Tories just don't care about anyone who isn't lucky enough to not need anything at all from the state, whatever that is.

Their endless workers vs shirkers rhetoric is propaganda bolleaux as the previous poster shows....plenty of people are working hard only to be shat on from a great height.