Conservatives jump 5 points up in polls, halving labour's lead

[BeanJuice]

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/9829578/Camerons-EU-vote-pledge-wins-poll-bounce.html

Interesting - quite predictable I suppose given his speech about the EU.

As everyone says, it's a gamble but I think it was a smart move on the part of the PM. In one fell swoop he has shot the UKIP fox and made Labour the party that doesn't trust the electorate with a choice. A clear point of difference for once.

Politically it was a very astute move.

Unfortunately I think DC has put party politics above national interest.

I'm not convinced it is even that astute, from a long term perspective. He has just shown the Euroscpetics that if they shout loud enough he will give in. Are they going to shut up now and wait patiently for four years? I doubt it.

They're not going to shut up but, equally well, for the first time since 1973 we're also going to have chance to hear the 'pro' arguments.... or, more accurately I suppose, the arguments for a revised version of the EU. The conversation has been dominated for as long as I can remember by the anti-European view - especially through the media - something that recent governments have done nothing to counteract.

That's cos it's been convenient for the government to have someone else to blame.

If we think it's the EU's fault for all these rules, it means we're not blaming them for rules which they probably would have brought in anyway (or a variation of)

CogitoErgoSometimes

They're not going to shut up but, equally well, for the first time since 1973 we're also going to have chance to hear the 'pro' arguments.... or, more accurately I suppose, the arguments for a revised version of the EU.

Oh, woe is you. Hardly anyone hears amazing stuff about the EU. Apart from all the bloody time. There are endless articles at the moment, telling us how brilliant the EU is.

The conversation has been dominated for as long as I can remember by the anti-European view - especially through the media - something that recent governments have done nothing to counteract.

Gosh, you're so persecuted, with only the world's biggest state broadcaster and the entire political and media class across the world's second richest continent to push your point of view.

Here, I'm playing the world's smallest violin, just for the yellow-ring-of-star wearing EU supporters.

?

Interesting but it won't last! The people are waking up to the corrupt Selfservatives 'Times are a changing' Mr Camoron et al are on their way out!

I think the Conservatives will win the next election.

Do you think? I think it's probably unlikely

Yes I do think.

I don't think people trust Ed Milliband and the memories of the last Labour government are too recent. Most people knew that Labour were spending far too much money even at the time it was happening and knew that we would have to pay for it down the line.

It's still over 2 years away though. A lot could happen between now and then.

The bounce in the polls won't last. The electorate have short memories.

I think ultimately the Tories will do better than the polls suggest but I can't see them getting an overall majority.

I can't see any of the three parties getting an overall majority. So it means UKIP may be the ones to watch since they may end up being the king makers.

On the one hand by offering the referendum he's seen off some of the current threat from UKIP; on the other hand the run up to the election may see some big beasts coming out and saying they're pro-/ anti-EU which would give the impression of a divided party/ weak leadership.

If the boundary changes don't go through the Conservatives will need a 7 point lead to win a majority. Labour are still 6 points ahead. That's a lot of ground to make up.

"There are endless articles at the moment, telling us how brilliant the EU is."

Where are all these articles exactly? Most of the popular newspapers seem to have spent the last 30 years running variations on a theme of 'Up Yours Delors'. Any time the EU is mentioned it is generally limited to dubiously barmy regulations from Brussels, the amount of money spent propping up Greece/Spain/Ireland/Italy or the 'floods' of EU residents boarding buses to the UK. We have a very EU-sceptical press.

I hadn't realised the boundary changes had been defeated

Not good at all IMO.

He has put British business at a major disadvantadge until this is resolved (in several years time) all for the sake of a short term bounce.

This announcement will actually encourage UKIP and the frothers on the Tory right rather than put them back in their box as was intended.