Ooh goody. I was hoping there'd be a thread on this. Very interesting times. Going back to the OP.
- The Greek election means that the minority government will almost certainly be unable to force through the austerity package, and this may force Greece out of the Euro, leading to a loss of confidence in the currency and the EU itself......which is bad for all of us in Europe. Let's take no satisfaction in it.
- France- too early to tell. The friendly stuff between Merkel and Hollande almost certainly won't last. One thing will be whether France taking the brakes off its spending affects confidence in the problematic countries such as Spain, Italy, Portugal and makes things worse for them.
I guess the key longer term issue is how relevant Europe remains and whether socialism can work in Europe when the rest of the world will work harder for their money and doesnt get pissy about a 36hr week. I don't know. Time will tell I guess.
Re which countries are doing okay, basically all of Asia, and quite a lot of Latam, and, of course, our friends down under who knew all that red dirt would come in handy one day
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The Chinese are interesting. They are currently doing a pretty good job, all things considered, about moving to a capitalist model, managing expectations and resolving social tension when it builds up to threatening levels (eg they are working very hard on land reform, rural education and the criminal justice system). They also have a lot of problems, which I come across every day in my job. However, the main thing they have in their favour is a huge, aspirational labour force and massive massive untapped domestic demand, so they can grow their economy even if their export markets shrink because everyone in China is going to buy the stuff (cars, fridges, flat screen TV, smartphones etc). This is a much healthier position to be in from a growth persepctive than a mature economy where everyone already has this stuff and you need to persuade them to trade up.
Anyway, we'll see, but it aint going to be pretty I suspect