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France and Greece Election results!

554 replies

LadyWithEDS · 07/05/2012 02:04

So, what do you think it means for Europe?

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WasabiTillyMinto · 07/05/2012 18:31

anyway all the best & can we stop this now because really life is too short for this kind of interaction.

NovackNGood · 07/05/2012 18:35

Like HERPES the gift that keeps on giving!!

minimathsmouse · 07/05/2012 18:46

Merkel is saying that she will not renegotiate the terms of the fiscal pact! and that there is no way she will negotiate a way for France and Germany to break their bargain on spending. How will Hollande find the money and what will happen if France and Germany can not find common ground/or reach a compromise?

LadyWithEDS · 07/05/2012 19:03

I will have to watch the news later then Minimathsmouse!

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OliviaLMumsnet · 07/05/2012 19:06

Evening all
Trust everyone here sticking to our guidelines, yes?

LadyWithEDS · 07/05/2012 19:12

Hello Olivia!

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WasabiTillyMinto · 07/05/2012 19:37

i cannot see Merkel being able to sell any change to her voters. Unless of course the euro crisis worsens and it becomes who can change the situation, where they are in their election cycle and what the alternatives were.

personally i would look to the country most significant budget deficit to fold first. thats IMO Greece. its nearly 10% of the GDP.

who is going to want to lend Greece any money if they dont play ball? maybe Merkel et al. will decide the greater good is to make an example of them?

minimathsmouse · 07/05/2012 19:39

What a find so strange is that the EU was set up after the war to prevent any European country (in particular Germany) from dominating the others and yet Germany seems to dominate anyway. It always puzzles me why the situation isn't challenged.

ealir · 07/05/2012 19:43

How can any other country challenge Germany though? Germany is the strongest nation in Europe by a mile and lets face it the EU is quickly become a union of economic basket cases drowning in debt.

claig · 07/05/2012 19:49

ealir is right, it is about financial power and Germany is teh powerhouse of Europe.

The socialist, Jacques Attali, was on Radio 4 this morning and he said that a solution would be for a closer political union between the EU countries. I think he said that a commmon currency requires a common state. That is what I think will happen and that it will be forced on the people of Europe by this crisis, which is helping those who want that. The Eurosceptics and UKIP etc will be against it, but I think the socialists will be for it, and they will probably get their way.

claig · 07/05/2012 19:51

Mandelson has been saying that he thinks that the UK will possibly join a Euro 2 some time in the future as well.

claig · 07/05/2012 19:52

And maybe the socialist Hollande will try to deliver it in a deal with Merkel.

WasabiTillyMinto · 07/05/2012 19:54

i cannot see the Germans wanting their voting power diluted by:

ireland
spain
portugal
greece
italy

thats like turkeys voting for christmas! they only need economic union so the other countries keep the euro down and the Germans can export. if the EU becomes a complete millstone, their only choice is to ditch it.

claig · 07/05/2012 20:03

I think we may be witnessing the end of the nation state, which many socialists and globalisation capitalists have long wished for. How long it will take is difficult to tell, but I think the financial crisis and austerity and technocrats will force it in the end.

The leader of the far right Greek party was shouting to journalists "the Europe of the nation states is return", but global capital and socialism are united, so I think the nation state is on its knees.

LadyWithEDS · 07/05/2012 20:05

If this Europe superstate ends, I reallly hope that there is not an attempt to build another.

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claig · 07/05/2012 20:09

What lots of important figures have been saying is that the only way out is closer union. We will have to see if that is what happens over the coming months or years or however long it takes.

I think Greece will be let go and possibly some other countries too, but some of the remaining countries will form a closer union and as Mandelson mentioned, this Euro 2.

claig · 07/05/2012 20:13

It's probably either that or the whole thing breaks up and we go back to sovereign nation states. But I think that is much less likely because that is not what global business wants.

LadyWithEDS · 07/05/2012 20:14

Euro2, makes me stomach churn. I don't know if I feel sorry for or envious of Spain, Ireland, Greece and co getting out of Europe, if there is going to be a Euro2!

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LadyWithEDS · 07/05/2012 20:16

It would mean a lot of money would not be directed from England and spent on MEP's, courts and all the rest of the Euroburacy!

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claig · 07/05/2012 20:16

Yes, the interesting thing is what will happen to us? Mandelson seemed to imply that we may join in the Euro 2 at some stage in the future.

LadyWithEDS · 07/05/2012 20:17

If Mandleson is talking like that, then there has been a long term plan going on in the background Wink.

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claig · 07/05/2012 20:21

I agree. I think the whole crisis was to deliver that goal. Right from the beginning we were told that the only solution is closer union and control of nation's budgets by a central EU body etc. We didn't even catch our breath after teh crisis began, and straightaway we were being sold the solution.

claig · 07/05/2012 20:30

Here is Mandelson discussing the "eurozone mark two"

www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/may/03/peter-mandelson-eu-referendum-labour

claig · 07/05/2012 20:36

'He questions whether Europeans are willing politically to sign up to such federalism: "As we are already starting to see, German largesse will not feel anything like solidarity in Athens or Madrid. And in Germany and other surplus countries the solidarity may start to look excessive and politically unsustainable."

He concedes the transfers in power being proposed to create a fiscal compact require unprecedented solidarity, the deployment of community resources across the eurozone's periphery that dwarfs the postwar Marshall fund and finally "the largest measure of sovereignty that European leaders have so far contemplated collectivising".

He warns that "will require German politicians to recognise that the badly designed eurozone has brought substantial benefits for Germany in the form of suppressed exchange rates and massive export surplus, but in return [they] must accept as a compromise the cost of correcting the eurozone deep imbalances.

"From politicians in Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland it will require the courage and discipline to present both painful austerity and structural economic reforms for what they are: not something that is externally imposed by Brussels or Berlin but as a sovereign choice dictated by national circumstance and necessity," he adds.

He predicts that within a decade the EU will have been rebooted, with the UK on the outside.

At some point, he suggests, "Britain will have to confront the choice between taking part in greater integration including joining the euro, or an uncertain future".

That uncertain future he claims will set challenges for the City of London and mean the UK will have to trade with an export market over which it has no influence.'

So it seems that countries have to go through the austerity before Germany can agree to pay for the whole thing to be united in closer union. That explains why he said on the radio that Greece is the author of its own problems. He seems to believe that the austerity is necessary before the new union can emerge.

claig · 07/05/2012 20:38

Remember how Brown and Blair used to tell us that they were in favour of joining teh Euro, but only if teh 5 or so economic preconditions were met, which they never were. Well it looks like the austerity is to ensure that countries do meet the economic preconditions of the new closer union.