How many out of a class of 25 are likely to accept and turn up to a birthday party?

[Whowouldfardelsbear]

Just that really.

This is for DD1s daycare class (nursery equivalent in NZ.) 24 other children plus 2 other friends and 2 other siblings and DD2. So possible 29 children.

I reckon my venue could hold around 20 kids comfortable max. So banking on only about 13 or so of the invited 24 turning up. Is this about right?

No - in my experience almost everyone turns up. I have fallen into the trap in the past of assuming about 1/3 drop out - it never has happened. I would assume at least 20 and possibly more (unless in the middle of a holiday).

Should add that I have just invited 11 children to dd's birthday and have already had positive responses from 10.

We have rarely had people who don't turn up. But then we do try and chose times that means they are most likely to be available.