Brexit: where are we? What could happen next? Webchat with three experts on Tuesday 27 November at 1.30pm

[RowanMumsnet]

Hello

We’re pleased to announce a webchat on Brexit, the ‘divorce’ agreement, and possible outcomes, with three guests from The UK in a Changing Europe on Tuesday 27 November at 1.30pm.

Professor Jonathan Portes is senior fellow at The UK in a Changing Europe and Professor of Economics and Public Policy in the Department of Political Economy at King's College London. Previously, he was principal research fellow of the National Institute of Economic & Social Research. Before that he was chief economist at the Cabinet Office, and previous to that chief economist at the Department of Work and Pensions.

Professor Catherine Barnard is senior fellow at The UK in a Changing Europe; Professor in European Union Law and Employment Law at the University of Cambridge; and senior tutor and fellow of Trinity College. Catherine specialises in EU law and employment law.

Professor Anand Menon is Director of The UK in a Changing Europe and Professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs at Kings College London. He has held positions at Sciences Po, Columbia University and NYU. He has written on many aspects of contemporary Europe and is a frequent commentator on national and international media.

Professors Menon and Barnard joined us before the Brexit referendum in June 2016 - you can check out that webchat here if you fancy refreshing your memory/reliving the heady atmosphere.

Please do join the chat on Tuesday. If you can’t make it, please leave a question here in advance. Do bear in mind the webchat guidelines - one question each (follow-ups allowed if there’s time), and please be polite. Also following recent chats/guest posts we’ve updated our guidelines to let people know that, if one topic is overwhelmingly dominating a discussion with a guest, mods might request that people don't continue to post what's effectively the same question or point. Rest assured we will ALWAYS let guests know that it's an area of concern to multiple users and will encourage them to engage with those questions.

Thanks
MNHQ

@MrsSHayward

Does Theresa May’s deal deliver on the promise of ‘taking back control’? If not, how is it a better outcome than the status quo as we will be economically poorer?

We would take back control of some things but not others. So (after the transition period) free movement would end and we would have much more control over immigration policy. But we wouldn't really take back control over trade policy, since we remain in the "customs backstop" until both sides can come up with an agreed solution on the Irish border. And we'd have to keep in step with at least some EU regulations. Obviously whether this is a worthwhile trade is a matter of opinion..

@MaryKate14

Can parliament vote on an amendment for a people’s vote?if this came about would this be the default position rather than no deal?

Yes, they could. There will probably be an amendment to that end. The potential problem is that some in favour of a referendum think it won't get a majority unless the choice is a stark one - referendum or no deal. So they fear the amendment will not pass. But yes, if there is an amendment and the motion passes then that would be the default.

Given that the divorce deal ( which is all that is seriously in play at the moment, the political declaration on the future is not legally binding), is wrapping up on past commitments, it is difficult to really make an assessment. If the UK stays in something like a customs union with some regulatory alignment on goods in the future, there will not be a lot of taking back control on goods. On the other hand, services are not significantly covered in the plans for the future and, of course, free movement will have stopped so there will be much greater control over immigration.

@MrsSHayward

Does Theresa May’s deal deliver on the promise of ‘taking back control’? If not, how is it a better outcome than the status quo as we will be economically poorer?

My follow up question:
From reading through lots of journal articles and skimming over the EU Draft Agreement and outline of Future Trading Agreement, my reading is that it might be that we will only be able to do trade deals with other countries who are closely aligned with EU Customs Union or who already have existing agreements with EU as other countries would not want to align themselves with EU in order to trade with us. Do you agree or do you think we could do trade deals with any countries as Trump thinks not with US if we vote to accept May's deal

@LucyHarrold

I have 2 questions for the panel: 1) the PM frequently refers to 'ending free movement' as the key benefit of her Withdrawal Agreement. She never mentions it is a reciprocal right. Please would you explain what ending 'free movement' will mean for UK citizens? How will it affect UK citizens wishing to live, work, study or retire in the EU?; and 2) the PM's proposals for the UK's future deal with the EU leave our Services sector (80% of the economy) entirely out of the single market. She has never explained that choice, nor its impact on the sector both practical and economic- can you? Many thanks, Lucy (Solicitor)

1. The non-binding Political Declaration does talk about market access for services - but it's very vague so we really don't know what will happen. But our analysis published today suggests that there will be significant new barriers to services trade and that will have a negative impact ukandeu.ac.uk/new-research-shows-economic-and-fiscal-consequences-of-the-brexit-deal/

@purplelindyloo

How can article 50 actually be reversed given the European court's decision today

I'm not sure the Court has passed a judgment yet. We still do not know whether we can unilaterally revoke article 50 or whether the other member states will have to agree

Jesus, that really is appalling, then. I can't believe it isn't being spoken about more widely .

What are the three redeeming qualities of Theresa May’s deal? What are the three damning qualities of the deal she has struck?

@BlackeyedGruesome

A bit like testing testing one, two, three.

Lots of politicians are complaining about Theresa's deal and think they can do better. Is there a lack of understanding that there are 27 or so other countries out there who have to agree to a deal and also have their own wants and desires for the outcome? They seem to lack theory of mind that other people have an input and not just some faceless machine of the EU that will give us what we want.

It is certainly true that many of those opposing the deal have failed to come up with a clear alternative that the EU might actually accept.

@purplelindyloo

How can article 50 actually be reversed given the European court's decision today

The Court hasn't passed a judgment today. We still do not know

@caringcarer

My follow up question: From reading through lots of journal articles and skimming over the EU Draft Agreement and outline of Future Trading Agreement, my reading is that it might be that we will only be able to do trade deals with other countries who are closely aligned with EU Customs Union or who already have existing agreements with EU as other countries would not want to align themselves with EU in order to trade with us. Do you agree or do you think we could do trade deals with any countries as Trump thinks not with US if we vote to accept May's deal

I think Trump is broadly correct (never thought I'd say that..). The proposed deal keeps us in a customs union with the EU indefinitely, and even after that the future relationship is supposed to "build on" that. So while we could still talk to the US about services trade, given the sorts of things the US usually wants from trade deals - chlorinated chicken! - it's difficult to see negotiations getting very far.

If the advisory/non-binding 2016 referendum had been 52:48 to Remain, and the following had been presented, what do you think would have happened?

The will of the people is overwhelmingly to stay part of the EU project, so we will be joining the Euro and Schengen.

This is the so-called ‘Turkey model’: Turkey is subject to the EU’s rules on goods and the EU’s trade deals but its goods are not the beneficiaries of those trade deals. It is free to negotiate trade deals with, say, Canada but most countries are not interested because they already have access to the Turkish market through the EU’s trade deals.

@lalalonglegs

Hello - thanks for addressing my earlier question. I have read an article (by Ian Dunt of politics.co.uk) which claims the WA means that if the EU makes any FTAs with countries not currently covered, the UK will have to accept all tariff-free goods etc from these countries as it is covered by the customs union but these countries would not have to apply the same rules to the UK as it would not be part of the EU. This is my understanding of his analysis but I keep thinking I must have got it wrong as it is so obviously disadvantageous to the UK. Are any of you able to clarify?

@AnnieM99

How do you think a People's Vote can best be achieved? How likely do you think this is?

The Government would have to introduce a bill for another referendum which parliament would have to approve. Parliament would then have to approve the question to be asked!!

The Leavers would have carried on campaigning to leave, as Nigel garage himself admitted.

If the UK were to decide to revoke the Article 50 notification and does so before the 29 Mar 2018 then we would stay on current terms including no obligation to join the euro.

@user1471448556

If the advisory/non-binding 2016 referendum had been 52:48 to Remain, and the following had been presented, what do you think would have happened?

The will of the people is overwhelmingly to stay part of the EU project, so we will be joining the Euro and Schengen.

Thank you for your answers to my questions.

How do the people of Europe feel about the UK leaving the EU? Do they feel sadness, anger, hurt? Are they glad, indifferent?

@MrsSHayward

What are the three redeeming qualities of Theresa May’s deal? What are the three damning qualities of the deal she has struck?

Good:

1. Largely protects the rights of EU citizens in the UK and Brits in the EU (although not entirely.
2. Transition period until December 2020 means very little changes when we actually Brexit in March.
3. The customs backstop means the risk of a hard border in Ireland is largely averted

Bad:

1. We know almost nothing about the future trading relationship between the UK and EU after the transition period - the Political Declaration is non-binding and very vague.
2. The customs backstop - which could be in place indefinitely or at least for years - means we still follow EU rules on tariffs etc but without a vote or voice - so less control than now.
3. Any future trade deal has to be approved unanimously by the EU27 countries - meaning that it could be held hostage by the French over fish, the Spanish over Gibraltar, etc. Our bargaining position was very weak in this round of negotiations - in future it's going to be even weaker.

So can govt request A50 to be extended?

That’s an interesting question. I would say that what has surprised me most is the extent to which the EU has led on the process, laying down the timetable, the deadlines, even the first text of the Withdrawal agreement.

On the domestic front, we always knew this would be a huge and complex process. Some Cabinet ministers have taken a long time to work this out.

@2beesornot2beesthatisthehoney

So Catherine Bernard and Anand Menon, looking back to your previous webcast on Mumsnet, is Brexit turning out like you thought or hoped it might?

Jonathon Portes , we haven’t heard your view before but feel free to chip in!

@Landlockedboatmum

My daughter was 16 at the time of the last referendum would have voted remain if given the chance. Brexit is something that will have impacts on her for the rest of her life. She is now 18. Do you think it right that she should have a say now through a People's Vote?

It's not up to me to say whether there should be another referendum or not, but I would say that changing the franchise before a vote is rather dangerous. Politicians would do that only because they thought that doing so would help them win, which is not a good look for democracy. I suspect the SNP polled young people quite carefully before extending the franchise for the Scottish referendum

Yes, but the EU would need to agree to it by unanimity. Article 50does anticipate this.

@B4BRoberta

So can govt request A50 to be extended?

What are the legal implications of people like me being 100% disenfranchised as a result of Brexit? Travesty of justice and democracy IMO but what does EU/international law say?

(Background: Brit citizen living in other EU country 25 yrs, married to EU national, children dual nationality - denied vote in referendum and no longer have voting rights in UK due to 15-year rule, Brexit will additionally mean no more vote in EU elections or local elections in my country of residence either - taking citizenship here not an option as country I reside in doesn't allow dual nationality except by birth.)

Sorry for repeat question - I posted earlier not expecting to be able to join chat but here I am after all. Thank you for taking the time to answer our questions.

How do the people of Europe feel about the UK leaving the EU? Do they feel sadness, anger, hurt? Are they glad, indifferent?
Sad for us and mildly bemused.
The Irish are angry.
Nobody is glad

Given that the results were so close and that the referendum was non-binding, why has the current government not sought a compromise position - i.e. Norway, whereby we leave the EU, but we retain frictionless trade and we retain our own FOM?

Admittedly, in essence this would have been pretty pointless BUT it would not have been so damaging to the economy and the divisions amongst the population would have been dampened. We could have all 'got on with it' and moved on ... and the government could turn their attention to pressing issues, such as the NHS, school funding, Universal Credit, food banks, homelessness, climate change, etc.

@MyOtherProfile

I'm generally concerned about the state we will be left in if we leave with no deal., financially, medically etc. Do you think there is any chance at all of no Brexit?

Yes I do. Very very few people in parliament want this outcome, but no one is really sure what happens if the deal is voted down and nothing else put in its place. The problem is it is hard to see a parliamentary majority for any outcome - deal, no deal, or referendum - at the moment.