Page 4 | US Stock market decline

mumof5andfat · 2025-03-09T12:11:28+00:00

The current stock market decline in the US is making me anxious. I'm currently 10% down on my portfolio having been 10% up just over a month ago. I need to stop looking at it so often, but Trump's policies are just everywhere. one minute he's implemented tarriffs, the next he's changed his mind. Please someone give me some hope.....I know none of us can second guess what Trump will do next, but surely he can see the mess he's created in the financial markets? 4 years of this????

MsVisual · 04/04/2025 21:35

1457bloom · 25/03/2025 07:18

It looks like the market has stopped falling for now.

Oh if only!

Original poster

mumof5andfat · 04/04/2025 21:53

I’m now £54k down, how much worse can it get? Oh crap…….

OP posts:

RisingSunn · 04/04/2025 22:01

To be honest…I refuse to check mine.

snowlaser · 04/04/2025 22:55

mumof5andfat · 04/04/2025 21:53

I’m now £54k down, how much worse can it get? Oh crap…….

Not sure you really want the answer to that - but with markets about 15%-20% down at the moment it's worth noting that there are lots of examples of 40% drops in history: 1920s, 1980s, 2000s financial crisis etc.

It's also worth noting that stockmarkets are much higher now than in 1929, 1987 and 2009 even after this week's falls.

It's not fun when investments are going down, but if you are investing for the long term it's bound to happen from time to time unfortunately. Stockmarkets are a long term investment as anything can happen in the short term.

As for what's next - who can say. Trump might cancel his tariffs and the market surge up, or it might plunge down more. You just don't know.

jasflowers · 05/04/2025 08:22

Markets go up and down, there is a knee jerk reaction to Trump/Tariffs but fundamentally, the companies that make up the DJ FTSE etc are not worth less in real terms, so markets will rebound, though it will depend on if countries negotiate with Trump OR retaliate... ... Its just a question of when!

Its a bummer for anyone retiring soon, i was looking to cash in a smallish FS pension, the valuation a few months ago was 7k pa and a 43k lump sum... i dare not ask what it'll be now... but swings and roundabouts.. i cashed in 3 small DC pensions last year.. phew!

Only "good news" as a result of all of this is gilt yields are falling, reducing govt borrowing and mitigating pension losses, dependent what they are in.

CarrieOnComplaining · 05/04/2025 10:02

I was just about to start drawing down my modest private pension pot which had only just recovered from Covid / Ukraine down jolt.

Its all I have alongside state pension and it’s looking v bleak indeed.

I think I need to eke out the last of cash savings and not start drawing down .

Kendodd · 05/04/2025 10:27

snowlaser · 04/04/2025 22:55

Not sure you really want the answer to that - but with markets about 15%-20% down at the moment it's worth noting that there are lots of examples of 40% drops in history: 1920s, 1980s, 2000s financial crisis etc.

It's also worth noting that stockmarkets are much higher now than in 1929, 1987 and 2009 even after this week's falls.

It's not fun when investments are going down, but if you are investing for the long term it's bound to happen from time to time unfortunately. Stockmarkets are a long term investment as anything can happen in the short term.

As for what's next - who can say. Trump might cancel his tariffs and the market surge up, or it might plunge down more. You just don't know.

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I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised if Trump had told all his family to sell shares they had before he announced his tariffs and will tell them to buy if he removes them.

messybutfun · 05/04/2025 11:40

Kendodd · 05/04/2025 10:27

I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised if Trump had told all his family to sell shares they had before he announced his tariffs and will tell them to buy if he removes them.

Show quote history

I rather think Trump was expecting a big rally as he really believes industry will come back to the US. Obviously the markets, or those dealing in shares, don’t believe it. I also don’t think anything he does or says can be relied on as he just changes his mind from whomever he spoke to last so we will be in for a long rollercoaster ride while he is in charge.

keswickgirl · 05/04/2025 12:00

MoneyBags · 09/03/2025 12:15

Consider it a buying opportunity!

Can I ask, how would I do this? My regular saver has just matured and I was planning on putting the money in a stocks and shares isa. I haven’t had one before so have been um-ing and ah-ing about how to do it. Is this a moment I should seize? Is there anything in particular I need to do to take advantage of lower stock prices at the moment or is just opening the isa enough?

BorgQueen · 05/04/2025 12:29

The thing is, it shouldn’t be a ‘bummer’ for anyone retiring imminently, it should all be planned in for the worst case scenario. There are lots of planning tools out there to test the robustness of your portfolio in different scenarios.

If you’ve got 3-5 years in cash or a 5-10 year collapsing Gilt ladder then the swings of the markets wouldn’t affect you at all. It’s an opportunity to buy more units much cheaper than they were.
Even 10 years in cash/ cash like fund with a built in inflation buffer of say a 5% income rise every year, is better than nothing when creating a defensive buffer.
I’m a tiny bit concerned that my remaining Sipp investments, that I plan to sell in 4-5 years, ( I’m getting everything out and into an ISA before I get my State pension in 2033)
should have been liquidised last year but I’m fairly confident that they will grow a bit in that time frame. I’ve switched my sipp contributions to a Short term money market fund for the sole reason that I’m taking them out again next year.

BorgQueen · 05/04/2025 12:34

When you open an S&S ISA you have to choose the investments, otherwise it sits there in cash.
Just stick it in a Global tracker and don’t keep looking at it, assuming it’s a 10 year + investment. You could buy in chunks if you are nervous of falls, split over 6 months/ a year.
I use Fidelity Index World and HSBC ftse All world index. They basically contain a bit of ‘everything’ in the index they track.

jasflowers · 05/04/2025 12:51

BorgQueen · 05/04/2025 12:29

The thing is, it shouldn’t be a ‘bummer’ for anyone retiring imminently, it should all be planned in for the worst case scenario. There are lots of planning tools out there to test the robustness of your portfolio in different scenarios.

If you’ve got 3-5 years in cash or a 5-10 year collapsing Gilt ladder then the swings of the markets wouldn’t affect you at all. It’s an opportunity to buy more units much cheaper than they were.
Even 10 years in cash/ cash like fund with a built in inflation buffer of say a 5% income rise every year, is better than nothing when creating a defensive buffer.
I’m a tiny bit concerned that my remaining Sipp investments, that I plan to sell in 4-5 years, ( I’m getting everything out and into an ISA before I get my State pension in 2033)
should have been liquidised last year but I’m fairly confident that they will grow a bit in that time frame. I’ve switched my sipp contributions to a Short term money market fund for the sole reason that I’m taking them out again next year.

Really? the worst case scenario is a 20s style Wall Street Crash or similar... a 10 or 15% drop in markets is fairly regular but what is very different about this particular "crash" is its totally self made, by one man, who has no checks or balances to what he wishes to do.

He has control of trade policy at the moment, soon, if the Fed don't do his biding, he will seize control here too.. all very unpredictable.

He will doubtless stay on if he loses the next election... causing problems and instability the world over.

Even cash wont help you, that 3-5 year buffer, will soon diminish when inflation is at 10 to 15% or beyond...

We also import an awful lot of gas from the USA, expect energy prices to spike to record levels should this mayhem continue.

Let me know where you can put cash with a 5% interest rate above inflation please?

Justsaywhatyoumean123 · 05/04/2025 22:29

I put about £20k into Monzo’s ISA (BlackRock fund) a while back, with an ‘adventurous’ investing style. This week, it dropped by about £1.5k — in line with the market.
In a bit of a panic, I switched it over to the ‘careful’ ISA after someone suggested it might be safer. But I totally forgot that doing this means they sell the current investments at a loss and buy into the new fund — effectively locking in that £1.5k loss.
If I call them first thing Monday morning, do you think there’s any chance I can reverse the switch? Feeling a bit embarrased at my own reactive stupidity.

BezMills · 06/04/2025 07:39

You can't undo it but you can move the money again back to where it started if you like. You'd be down two transfer fees and +/- depending on the fluctuations of fund values in the interim.

I am not advising you either way, but times like this really can inform you what your personal attitude to risk actually is, rather than what you think it is.

rainbowunicorn · 06/04/2025 11:51

Justsaywhatyoumean123 · 05/04/2025 22:29

I put about £20k into Monzo’s ISA (BlackRock fund) a while back, with an ‘adventurous’ investing style. This week, it dropped by about £1.5k — in line with the market.
In a bit of a panic, I switched it over to the ‘careful’ ISA after someone suggested it might be safer. But I totally forgot that doing this means they sell the current investments at a loss and buy into the new fund — effectively locking in that £1.5k loss.
If I call them first thing Monday morning, do you think there’s any chance I can reverse the switch? Feeling a bit embarrased at my own reactive stupidity.

No, they won't undo it. It dosent work like that. If it did everone would just say oh woops made a mistake can i have my money back.😂
You have sold the shares at a loss and they are now worth the lesser amount. Of course you can switch back to the more adventurous profile with what you have left but you would be buying again with the lesser amount to invest with and paying the fees associated with that.
Perhaps a cash ISA is more suitable for the future if you are risk adverse.

w0nderwall · 06/04/2025 12:13

This has come at just the wrong time for DS, who has just turned 18 and is seeing his child trust fund fall in value just as he was going to get it out and stick it in a cash ISA.

I’m fairly sanguine about my own pension savings since I have 12 years to retirement, but DS was thinking about using his money to give him a bit more income through uni, starting in October. Not quite sure how best to advise him now. He’s currently thinking he’ll wait and see for a bit…

CherryBlossomPie · 06/04/2025 20:28

I moved my pensions into an index tracker in November 2024 and combined they are down 19.5% now. I'm 44 years old so I've got time.

It does make me think about the importance of derisking when I'm 5-6 years off retirement.

IndiraCake · 07/04/2025 10:31

w0nderwall · 06/04/2025 12:13

This has come at just the wrong time for DS, who has just turned 18 and is seeing his child trust fund fall in value just as he was going to get it out and stick it in a cash ISA.

I’m fairly sanguine about my own pension savings since I have 12 years to retirement, but DS was thinking about using his money to give him a bit more income through uni, starting in October. Not quite sure how best to advise him now. He’s currently thinking he’ll wait and see for a bit…

I would strongly advise him not to sell now if he can possibly avoid it.

w0nderwall · 07/04/2025 13:57

Thanks @IndiraCake. He’s certainly getting early experience of the stockmarket! He could probably leave it in for at least six months, if not more, and hope things improve. But it’s his decision…

DingDingRound3 · 08/04/2025 17:15

Justsaywhatyoumean123 · 05/04/2025 22:29

I put about £20k into Monzo’s ISA (BlackRock fund) a while back, with an ‘adventurous’ investing style. This week, it dropped by about £1.5k — in line with the market.
In a bit of a panic, I switched it over to the ‘careful’ ISA after someone suggested it might be safer. But I totally forgot that doing this means they sell the current investments at a loss and buy into the new fund — effectively locking in that £1.5k loss.
If I call them first thing Monday morning, do you think there’s any chance I can reverse the switch? Feeling a bit embarrased at my own reactive stupidity.

Well you can sell the safe one and buy back in, but there’s no cancelling the instruction or reversing it.

Kendodd · 09/04/2025 08:48

Can anyone clever explain what's happening to the US bond markets and what possible consequences are ?

Julen7 · 09/04/2025 09:18

messybutfun · 05/04/2025 11:40

I rather think Trump was expecting a big rally as he really believes industry will come back to the US. Obviously the markets, or those dealing in shares, don’t believe it. I also don’t think anything he does or says can be relied on as he just changes his mind from whomever he spoke to last so we will be in for a long rollercoaster ride while he is in charge.

Show quote history

This is his last term isn’t it? Another 4 years of this madness.

crumpet · 09/04/2025 09:25

I am willing to bet he is going to try to change the rules so that it isn’t his last term - he was hard enough to chisel out last time

User5274959 · 09/04/2025 09:38

What do we think is good to buy right now?
I have some savings in non ISA that I want to move into my S&S ISA.

Currently I just have some in the vanguard all cap global index fund. Think it's about 65% USA.

Wondering if I just stick more in there, or balance out a bit by getting more US since it's so low, or less US since Trump is so bonkers.

I'm early 40s so thinking 10yrs plus

User5274959 · 09/04/2025 09:38

Or bonds maybe 🤔
I don't have any of those