US Stock market decline

[mumof5andfat]

The current stock market decline in the US is making me anxious. I'm currently 10% down on my portfolio having been 10% up just over a month ago. I need to stop looking at it so often, but Trump's policies are just everywhere. one minute he's implemented tarriffs, the next he's changed his mind. Please someone give me some hope.....I know none of us can second guess what Trump will do next, but surely he can see the mess he's created in the financial markets? 4 years of this????

The IFA company i've used, moved funds from predominately the USA to a more UK/European equities and bonds based portfolio in late February.

Atm looking like a wiser move but who knows.

End the day, so long as you re in a broad portfolio & can wait, do nothing.... the pressure on Trump to act more rationally is going to be huge and he'll react to that, atm he is just swollen with new found power and stupidity.

Temp feels hard done by on the tariffs imposed by other countries on the US over the years. If this is the case, then maybe imposing tariffs is the right thing to do. The problem comes in the way he’s gone about it. Markets want stability, institutions need a clear aim and plan. If he’d just set out his plan once and for all rather than making a decision then backtracking, then reacting to others, all it’s done is create chaos, uncertainty and loss of trust in his capabilities. the dollar has dropped against the pound (I can’t even work out the %drop, is it 3% in the past 3 weeks?)

Then this ‘thing’ he has with Elon Musk (I can’t even think of the word to describe the relationship between them) just makes me cringe….. yes I own Tesla shares as well! :-( oh my…… let me go back and carry on licking my wounds lol

hoping for a better day today, but I don’t think the Fed will be cutting interest rates anytime soon either (which would’ve been good for the markets)

I think the best thing is not to look. I knew nothing about investing and pensions until fairly recently although have always had a pension since I started work over 25 years ago. There have been many market crashes and downturn in that time but I wasn't stressed or worried because I didn't know they were happening and never checked my pension.

I think that's the best strategy right now. Don't look and as long as you are still investing regularly you should be ok as you're buying at cheaper prices.

We won't need to access our pensions for another 10 years and historical data says you are very unlikely to sustain a loss over 10 years of investing. Past performance is no indicator...etc but it's all we've got to go on.

We also have BTL which is a good diversifier and crypto (not a huge amount) which has done very well despite falling back recently.

The lesson is diversification and do not invest in equities if you are going to need the money within 5 years.

Well yesterday after trying to hold my nerve I decided to withdraw everything except what I invested three weeks ago which is sitting at a loss of 5%. I'm leaving that in and hoping it recovers back to my original capital. At that point I think I am going to withdraw it.

The rest I withdraw yesterday at a small loss of less than 1% of my original capital which I can live with. Obviously totally pissed off as it was up nearly 10% in January. However I only put it in last October (28K) so not that long ago. Also not forgetting the cost of the loss interest that I would have got from sticking it into a 4% savings account. So the loss is really original capital less 1% less interest foregone.

Obviously not jumping for joy but the reason I decided to do this was kind of three-fold. (I'm no expert by the way and this is just my opinion)

1. Even if Trump stops changing his mind on tariffs then what will his next crazy change be. The man just seems to be unstable and so based on that I'd rather just keep my cash safe for now. I have pensions which of course will be getting affected but not much I can do about that.
2. If the tariffs are kept there is going to be a knock on effect on everyone's cost of living as prices will go up. I just feel people are going to start spending less money and taking less holidays with all this negative news and also prices going up cos of the tariffs. It just feels a bit like the start of a recession cycle especially when you factor in the ceasefire that is looking unlikely plus what is going on in the UK with RR and the budget and the loss of NHS jobs in press yesterday.
3. Share Prices are really high just now if you look back the last 5 to 10 years and as I think has been pointed out Price/Earnings is really high too. I have know idea what will happen next. Maybe they will just go higher and higher but for me this felt like the final straw after taking into account the other points.

I am consoling myself that at this stage my capital has only been eroded by less than 1% but it still hurts.

Sorry to everyone who is feeling the pain and today the american markets are rising it seems after falling yesterday so who the fuck knows. The world does seem alot more unstable though with Trump and Putin running around.

p.s. also impacting my decision is my planned house move probably next year. Where I hope to sell mine and buy one of similar value (no mortgage) I thought it might be wise to retain more cash to give myself freedom to up my budget in case a really nice house is available which costs more.

That's obviously personal to just me but I didn't want to find myself with huge losses next year and not be able to sell if I wanted to.

It's definitely a good idea to sell if you will need the money next year as we have no idea what will happen over the next few months/year.

The problem with selling is knowing when to get back in and missing out on some good gains which I've done in the past. Nobody knows what to do but I'm hanging on for better or for worse. We're still paying into pensions every month so are buying in at the lower prices.

and talking of gains .....the american markets are all showing gains today after me selling yesterday.

Oh well never mind the 20K I put in 3 weeks ago is showing a 5% loss so hopefully it starts moving back towards zero so I can get my capital out if I choose.

It's been a stressful week.

I took all my shares out a couple of weeks ago but going to put £100 back in to enable me to keep an eye on it and hopefully see when it starts to go back up

As Dave Ramsey would say the only people that get hurt are those who get off half way through the rollercoaster.

it will bounce back. It always does. As long as you have time on your side you’ll be fine.

@winter8090 i keep thinking of this Dave Ramsey quote. I’m going to ride out the roller coaster

As someone said "Its time IN the markets, not timing the markets that counts"

These tariff wars will die down, because they will hurt Trumps base, when they do, the losses in recent weeks will be reversed.... fingers crossed!!

also, i believe you shouldn't be investing if you either need the money over a specific and short, less than 5 years, time scale

Love a bit of Dave Ramsey! Not always convinced by his faith in 10% market returns though!

Sooo, basically what you're saying is that now is a good time to buy :)

It might be... but they might still fall even further!

Invest when you can and when you can afford short term losses.

If you cannot, a fixed rate account is better.

Haha me neither! He must invest well and aggressively!

All seems to be ready to have a downturn and then a stagnant market

After the dot com bubble burst market was stagnant for 10 years

Defence firms look a good bet for the next six months

You put money in for 4 months? 🤦‍♀️

OP stop looking and ignore it. Sit tight and do nothing.

When things settle reassess if this is the right place for your money.

It’s not even a loss, it’s a change of value. It will
change again too.

It looks like the market has stopped falling for now.

Sadly Trump is creating so much uncertainty in the markets and that is what the markets hate. There's not knowing what he's going to do next.

It's going to be a bumpy four yrs. Best check how weighted you are to US stocks and if it's high maybe rebalance if you need the money in the shorter term.

I'm still down £35k from my original investment. I am heavily invested in the US, so the dollar weakening isn't helping either. I'm waiting until the start of the new tax year to make a few changes though, not too drastic, but i have a couple of companies that have been doing quite well in my portfolio that I want to buy through my ISA and my kids ISA accounts, so i just need to hold on for a few more days and hope Trump keeps his mouth shut.

I once read that stocks go up via the escalator but they come down via the lift. How true this is.

I think this correction has been an interesting wake up for lots of us about reliance on mag7, the need to rebalance and how easy it to try to diversify but just end up doubling up because so many of your funds have the same holdings.

You’re right, it’s only now that I realise that what I thought was a ‘global fund’ was actually approx 80% US stocks. On top of that I also held some of the magnificent 7, so double whammy for me when they fell. I’m now researching ways in which I can be exposed to other markets other than the US. Not a fan of picking individual stocks either unless I’m absolutely comfortable with what their future prospects are and I totally believe they’re the best in what they do (I still got burnt by Nvidia and WMT though :-( ) I’m still holding on though because my original reasons for buying these still stand. I don’t know if that’s stupidity on my behalf though or not. I guess time will tell.

It's always a bit of a shock when markets tumble. Sit tight. I well remember the sudden stock market falls during the gulf war, the credit crunch, after 9/11 and of course when the Covid pandemic hit. Some of my funds and stocks fell by more than 80% in March 2020. Almost all of them recovered.

Don't sell anything now, as you'll only be locking in your losses.
Think of this as a passing storm to be weathered. Batten down the hatches and wait for it to pass. In the meantime, if you're brave and have cash to spare, you could consider taking advantage of the lower prices and invest a bit more.

You seem to be rather over-invested in the US. It's always more risky to put all eggs in the same basket. In future, try to diversify a bit more in order to even things out.

Investment is a long game. I think it's only worth doing if you're not going to need the money for at least 5-10 years.

How did you fare Ooops. I lost 1K approx on my investment which was 48K. Like you I had not long put it in and it went from being 2.5K gain to a loss.

I got rid of the last of it about 2 weeks ago.

I'm glad I did now. Also glad I put the other 50K I had to invest into BSociety at tail end of last year.

About January I was annoyed at myself for not putting it all in the stock market but by March I was glad I hadn't.

When did you get out and how much did you lose (or gain). I know you wanted to cut your losses but your husband wanted to wait and see.

Painful lesson for us who dabble. I really don't have the nerve for it quite frankly.

All my pensions will be getting affected of course but I tend to only look at them when I get my yearly statement so somehow that is easier to bear.

Will be able to draw them down though in next 3-5 years so have to start looking at them more closely and deciding what to do.

Anyway hope you are okay. I just remember reading your post and you popped into my head yesterday when all the chaos was errupting in the markets.

Since your renovation starts soon I'm sure you took it out before now but just know you are not alone!!

I do admire the posters who can just not get bothered especially the one that took a photo after the covid drop and put more in. They probably make a fortune in the long run but I need to be able to sleep at night.

I did make a few thousand during the covid drop but that was just sheer luck that I put it in while the market was down and sold while it was up.