PREMIUM BONDS MAY DRAW ONWARDS

[Blondeshavemorefun]

Other one is almost full so a new thread for us to share all our winnings (I hope)

fir the first time I won £50 / usually £25 if I win

and May brought 25 and 50 so £75. Happy days

quite a few have won this month. Always a joyful feeling seeing the dancing lady in the rain kr sunshine

I don't really understand why people become inclined to leave after x amount of time below the expected return. Surely it is a known that some people will get about the expected return, some less, some more then some much less and some much more. Any result one month has nothing to do with the potential result the next month.

Anybody wanting a guaranteed return should have put their money into a fixed yield account in the first place.

£100 in May 🎉🎉🎉

I got £200 this month and £1000 last month. I have 13k in bonds

I had nothing for 3 montha before that

Human nature ?

The crushing reality when you purchase a FH and go months without winning anything which is perfectly possible (less so of course with the new prize pool).

After all I doubt whether many people buy premium bonds with the excited intention of winning absolutely nothing.

Also, the fact is that past events do not affect future probability. You can lose for 12 months straight with a full holding, but that has absolutely zero effect on what might happen in the future (either to the upside or downside). People may decide quite reasonably that after experience that it is not for them and to call it quits.

Wow. You won £1k last month. That's fab odds

I guess if I'd had £50k spare in bonds I wouldn't need the thrill of what if I could win £500 to £5/10k

That would make a huge diff to me

Obv a million or £50/100k would be wow

But winning £10k wouid be amZing !!

I have analysed further my 5 years of misery (cos stats interest me a bit and I don't want to do the work I am supposed to do).

What I found was I have won in 61 months :

100 (exactly) £25 prizes.
3 £50 prizes.
2 £100 prizes.

If the prize distribution is what it is now (and I know it has increased over time, probably the average is half below) then I should have won approx. :

122 £25 prizes (2 per month).
61 £50 prizes (1 per month).
31 £100 prizes (1 every 2 months).

Now I know the prize pool has increased considerably recently. But even so. I have won a staggering 20x less £50 prizes than stats I should have and 15x less £100.

Even if the prize pool shrinks to half that average over the 5 year period I am still 10x down on £50 prizes and 7.5x down on £100 prizes.

What is kind of interesting is that for these types of low value prizes, the stats should really work out pretty well. For the higher ones of its impossible to get any reasonable knowledge over probably the period of a lifetime even with FH.

That 20x reduction in expectation on the £50 prize is pretty anomalous.

Is your maths right @GasPanic? It looks like you think there are n £25 prizes, then n/2 £50 prizes, then n/4 £100 prizes. I thought there were lots more £25 prizes than anything else, but I'm off to investigate...

Actually, maybe you're not a million miles off @GasPanic. I think the overall split of prizes changed significantly recently though, so this might be causing / contributing to the differences between observed and expected.

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/savings/premium-bonds/

I got it from here.

I believe the £100 prize number is wrong on that site as the #prizes does not reflect the probability of winning - they entered the same number twice for £50 and £100.

I have taken it very approximately, so 1:41000 = 1 per month at FH even though it should actually be more than this (1.2 per month ?)

Signing in

Oh, I didn't notice their error.

I'm sure the recent change means that there are more small (but not as small as £25) prizes 🧐, but hopefully someone else has a better memory than me!

One other way maybe of looking at my appalling luck is to imagine what would have happened if it the stats had gone the other way.

So for example, assuming the average prize rate over the period was 1.5% and I won 10x more (rather than my actual 10x less) £50 and 7.5x more £100 prizes than expected.

The expectation at the 1.5% rate would be 30x £50 prizes and 15x £100 prizes over the period, so 10x more would be 300x £50 and 112.5x £100.

So I would have trousered an astonishing £26K !

OK. Got it.

This historical page gives you the prize breakdown for September 2018 :

https://www.nsandi-adviser.com/september-2018-premium-bonds-prizes

(if you pretend to be a financial advisor).

You can see that the prize pool ratio has changed significantly.

There were 3 million £25 prizes but only 25,000 £50 and £100 prizes.

Implausible probability crisis averted.

£50 for me this month

Just £25 this month

Nothing for me. Hoping for a better June!

I think the MSE number is right but the odds are wrong. The last update made the number of £50 and £100 prizes equal, according to this: https://nsandi-corporate.com/news-research/news/nsi-gives-valentines-day-boost-savers

Hello all. I bagged £75 in May. Not bad. But not good either !

I wonder if we will see any further prize rate increases if bank base rate rises again today as expected 🤞

BoE has increased interest rate, so here’s hoping 🤞

That would be good

I really hope they put back the number of £25 prizes that there were 6 months ago, or increase them even more.

It does look as though they're trying to phase out the £25 prize though doesn't it - the way they've been reducing them over recent months. Personally,I'd rather they increased the number of prizes and gave more holders the chance of winning something. Even £25 is a little boost these days!

Yes, more £25 and £50 prizes would keep the cynical amongst us interested for longer, with interest rates rising.