Trump and Tariffs ....what are your feelings?

[mids2019]

So investments are taking a hit and I am intending to ride it out. Looking at maybe a year to recoup losses

What are your feelings and is anyone rebalancing a portfolio in anticipation of a trade war?

Certainly no good feelings. I decided not to sell everything on the grounds that Trump has been so volatile there was always the risk that tariffs would be cancelled and markets would bounce but my main portfolio has a higher percentage in bonds than it usually would and I’ve been piling up spare cash to drip in over the coming weeks and months, hoping to buy relatively cheap. I suppose we’re in for years of this shit though so there isn’t much to do other than average into the market and hope things tick up again eventually.

I've been thinking about starting out investing, am in my 50s and have a rainy day fund easy access and was thinking about investing in a ss&s isa for the first time - is it mad to start now? I'd be looking at leaving it untouched for five to ten years so was wondering if it's worth getting in now while things are low?

@Pamspeople far be it from me to give investment advice but the general view is that over that kind of timescale shares will beat cash. The problem is that it’s hard to be confident knowing that even if Trump and his mates are gone in 4 years the world’s major economy has shown that roughly 50% of its population is insane and so it’ll always be 4 years away from turning into a nazi clown show.

For what it’s worth I’m going to keep investing steadily, putting money away for at least 5 years (I’m late 40s) in a low-fee global equity tracker.

My Trading212 looks horrifying! But will keep going with my monthly drip feed as I’m holding this for at least another 10 years anyway.

Thanks, that's what I was thinking, if I'm as sure as I can be that I won't need the money for at least five years then it's time to look at investing in s&s rather than just another savings account.

Fair point about what the success of Trump says about what could happen next

It’s not nice to see ‘new’ money in an ISA drop 7% in a fortnight but I’ve seen the drop as an opportunity and topped it up by buying some more.
I am very relieved to have sold a big chunk of investments within our Sipps last year, it’s now sitting earning 4.5% and ready to start drawing on in a couple of years. I’d be very twitchy now if I hadn’t.

I’ve literally lost (on paper) thousands since Trump started his nonsense, but will ride it out. I’ve got a big chunk of dividends this month (thanks, KO) so will buy a bit more of one of my US stocks. I’ll do the same for my son’s SIPP and ISA.

We’re continuing to invest in an actively managed balanced fund. If anything with prices going down it’s good to put money in but you need to ride out the lows

We've got money in global trackers but we are hoping to help our son buy his first property towards the end of this year, which will mean cashing in some funds. They're still relatively high compared to when we put most of the money in, so need to decide whether to cash out now or wait.

Just riding it out.

Not even checking the balance as it will spook me

If you afford to leave the money alone and happy with some risk then my (very amateur) view would be that it's a good time to start, while it's low like this.

Just got to think and hope it will bounce back, it generally always does

Morninall - how would you feel if it dropped 20-50%? There’s your answer.

Leaving it to the same year is madness, when the orange idiot got in should have been your wake up call.

Sell now and put the cash in a short term money market fund, currently paying 4.5%.

Sell now? Surely not, isn't it best to ride it out if you can?

I feel really stupid, I am saving to move next year, started both a General Investment account on moneybox and more recently a S&S ISA. Both are high risk, they've both tanked in the last 24 hours thanks to him. Fortunately (Im still sad) I only have about £1500 across both ... would anyone advise me to pull the money out now based on this only being a short term (6-9 month) investment, or still ride it out?

You shouldn't look for financial advice on Mumsnet. In general, advisors tell people that shares should only be used for long term investments of 5+ years, not short term investments. Nobody knows what will happen over the next few months.

I am derirsking my isa as we may need the money in a couple of years for a house purchase. I am leaving pensions as I have 10+ years for markets to recover.

@BorgQueen This surely is not a serious advice. Selling now would consolidate the loss. Fair enough if the loss cane be balanced by the 4.5%. Plus, MMF depends on interest rate which is predicted to come down. There is no reason to sell now unless the fund is desperately needed. It is too late to sell now, so might as well ride the whole thing out...

It is needed soon according to OP.
It could well drop another 10/20/30/40% in the next few months.
A 7-10% drop is easier to stomach, it’s a hell of a gamble that funds will rise 10%+ in the next few months and it’s not one I would take if there were concrete plans for that money.

The time to sell was last November, or before - it was obvious to a blind man on a galloping horse that Trump would cause market chaos.

Also, OP hasn’t actually made a Loss, YET. 😉

Selling out of a global fund in November would have put people in a similar position to today (screenshots of a typical fund attached for 6 months and 10 years).

Selling out usually takes 2-3 business days. Better to do it when things are more stable, if at all.

I’m so pissed off. In my working life I’ve had the Great Financial Crash, Covid, Liz Truss and now Trump. I diligently put away into my pension and savings but I feel like I’m walking through mud, like it’s 2 steps forward and one step back. We’re having to pause our kitchen project because literally thousands have been wiped off our savings. Warren Buffet did a huge sell-off 6 months ago, he saw it coming. I know this is a first world problem, it’s just really really depressing me today.

edited to correct the typos you only see once you’ve posted

The current situation is a minor blip and barely registers when looking over a reasonable time period.

Ignore the noise, keep calm and carry on.

Investing is for the long term.

I got through 2020 and 2008 and my ISA is still up 38% on 2020 and up 128% on 2010. So I will just ride the storm. I've also just given money to both my children so my portfolio is looking a little smaller.

Watch James Shack on youtube, he explains it in simple and clear terms. This is a blip, one that happens with incredible regularity, you shouldn’t be investing if you don’t understand the risks.
If you need a certain amount of money at a certain time - you DO NOT leave it invested until the very last minute, that’s insanity.
We’ve got 3+ years of income in cash/cash equivalent funds in our pensions and we won’t start drawing down until 2027, I couldn’t sleep at night without that security, even if we’ll miss out on a bit of growth
It could all bounce back quickly like it did with Covid, Or, it might drop further and take 5 years to get back to where we were - nobody knows.
I saw an interesting piece by an economist and she reckons this was all planned because the US has Billions of debt due to settle this year and because people are now buying Treasury bills ( the equivalent of our Government Gilts) , that cash will settle the debt.