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Original poster

Trump and Tariffs ....what are your feelings?

71 replies

mids2019 · 03/04/2025 19:42

So investments are taking a hit and I am intending to ride it out. Looking at maybe a year to recoup losses

What are your feelings and is anyone rebalancing a portfolio in anticipation of a trade war?

OP posts:
Original poster
mids2019 · 05/04/2025 07:43

I think the bruising thing is that is the first stock market decline that has been caused deliberately and with for knowlwdge. I am not pretending to know the mind of US voters but 60% of them own stocks and shares and now face recession with inflation coupled with job losses. From a political point of view how will the republicans care in future elections? I would think(?) there may be considerable political pressure for Trump to change before long but who kniws.

Trump does have the ability to reduce tariffs and it may be his strategy to start individual negotiations with major economies with tariffs being a lever in these. The tariffs may reduce in time and cynically may follow the US electoral cycle.

Another long term thought is that there may be a rejigging of our economies, new trade agreements will be reached, new businesses will spring up, novel tariff avoiding strategies might arise. It will take time but unless we are facing Armageddon then all these companies still have a consistent inherent value and that will be realised in future.

I think it may be a good time to invest actually it's just a bit of pain to sit on a loss for a while.

OP posts:
bellinisurge · 05/04/2025 07:46

My DD’s child trust fund is about to mature. We paid in tiny amounts and up to £100 times be offs where we could over nearly 18 years. It’s in its final “conservative investments” stage. It’s just lost £900 and it will mature before it has a chance to recover.

bellinisurge · 05/04/2025 07:48

*£100 as one offs

Oriunda · 05/04/2025 07:54

Trump has form for this .... and lots of mates who love to short and have made a fortune this week. He doesn't care about the little guy. He just wants to look tough.

I suspect the pressure from the Republicans facing poor midterms will lead to a gradual reversal of these tariffs. Bear in mind the market went up when Trump was elected.

Appreciate this doesn't help people needing the cash now. Me, I bought 8 (!) more KO for my ISA, and a US fund for my son. He's only 13, so it's a long term thing.

morninall · 05/04/2025 08:54

bellinisurge · 05/04/2025 07:46

My DD’s child trust fund is about to mature. We paid in tiny amounts and up to £100 times be offs where we could over nearly 18 years. It’s in its final “conservative investments” stage. It’s just lost £900 and it will mature before it has a chance to recover.

Your child doesn't have to cash it in though. It can be converted to an ISA.

bellinisurge · 05/04/2025 10:52

@morninall, yes, that’s what we’re doingwith most of it. But not all. And I know the blip up was a bit of a dead cat bounce. It’s just annoying that the timing didn’t work for us.

Fatlittlefruits · 05/04/2025 14:27

My feeling is 'sit tight'.

I'm planning to retire in 3-5 years and I'll adjust timing/spending plans accordingly. I'm starting to build up a cash buffer and, as I'm planning to use drawdown for the first phase of retirement, most of my money will stay invested for a while. At various points, depending on markets and rates, I plan to convert equities to annuities in chunks.

endofthelinefinally · 05/04/2025 14:31

Buckarooo · 04/04/2025 07:22

Just riding it out.

Not even checking the balance as it will spook me

Me too. It is an ethically managed fund. I don't need it yet, so I will just sit tight for now. They will write to me anyway.

Kaftanesque · 05/04/2025 19:22

My pension fund is down significantly and I'm sickened because it's already only modest and I need to start drawing down soon due to unexpected large expenses -new roof and helping DD escape abusive ex.Add that to the increases in council tax,water etc and suddenly my retirement plans for this year and the future look a bit rubbish.

QuirkInTheMatrix · 05/04/2025 19:30

Buckarooo · 04/04/2025 07:22

Just riding it out.

Not even checking the balance as it will spook me

Same. I don’t even open my written statements. 😁

mintbiscuit · 05/04/2025 20:10

bellinisurge · 05/04/2025 07:46

My DD’s child trust fund is about to mature. We paid in tiny amounts and up to £100 times be offs where we could over nearly 18 years. It’s in its final “conservative investments” stage. It’s just lost £900 and it will mature before it has a chance to recover.

You can leave it invested until it’s recovered. If you don’t need it?

mintbiscuit · 05/04/2025 20:14

Pamspeople · 03/04/2025 20:29

I've been thinking about starting out investing, am in my 50s and have a rainy day fund easy access and was thinking about investing in a ss&s isa for the first time - is it mad to start now? I'd be looking at leaving it untouched for five to ten years so was wondering if it's worth getting in now while things are low?

While the markets are down is best time to invest - buy cheap. obvs invest in well diversified funds.

I’m just waiting for new tax year to get my money in asap.

morninall · 05/04/2025 21:22

I do wonder if Donald T and his family safeguarded their own investments before the tariffs were announced, or whether they're being managed in an arms-length fund that has tanked along with the markets.

ThisPinkBee · 05/04/2025 21:44

lucywho123 · 04/04/2025 11:19

I feel really stupid, I am saving to move next year, started both a General Investment account on moneybox and more recently a S&S ISA. Both are high risk, they've both tanked in the last 24 hours thanks to him. Fortunately (Im still sad) I only have about £1500 across both ... would anyone advise me to pull the money out now based on this only being a short term (6-9 month) investment, or still ride it out?

Leave it where it is but if you need the money in a year just put rest of your cash into a savings account. I wouldn't be putting into s&s if I needed the cash in a year or two.

ThisPinkBee · 05/04/2025 21:52

I moved my pensions into a global tracker - worst timing as I did it at the top of the Post trump election boom. As of today I was showing as 20% down. I know I'm only 'down' if I sell.

I'm just not feeling optimistic that it will recover very quickly.

The only thing in the future is AI and that won't really start to be felt for about 15 years I don't think.

I'm about to turn 45. My plan is to keep saving as much as I can.

CanOfMangoTango · 05/04/2025 22:10

Leaving mine where it is.

I might look at rebalancing, my funds are very US heavy. But I'm not cashing out.

I've got 20 years until retirement so it's a long haul for me.

I've been through the financial crisis, brexit, covid, truss. If I needed the money next year then yes i would cash out.

Original poster
mids2019 · 05/04/2025 23:36

Weird thing is I was watching a piece about what the method was behind the madness and it is apparently a reset of the world order where the US was prepared to buy abroad to enhance other economies that were aligned against the USSR. The US were prepared to protect other economies against US exports by allowing them to impose tariffs and the US would not reciprocate.

Trump has decided to spend bro liberal economics to become protectionist with the in to enhance the US manufacturing during base which has been instead decline some the 50s (hence the term 'rust belt')

My feeling is that there may be some US manufacturing stock may be valuaBle as IS companies are now protected against foreign competition . It is a huge gamble but the Trump administration will hope in the long term that the world economic order can be reformed to US advantage. Maybe long term US stocks are worth a punt?

OP posts:
Original poster
mids2019 · 05/04/2025 23:38

Upend neo liberal economics

OP posts:
QuirkInTheMatrix · 06/04/2025 06:58

I get Trump wanting to take steps to promote USA based manufacturing but ultimately because of the cost of living in the USA compared to China, etc they will never be able to make/sell stuff as cheaply as what they can import. Not unless they pay their workers a dollar an hour. So is Trump just saying to the American people they have to suck up higher prices for ever? I’ve seen videos explaining how much more people can expect to pay for a camera, a games console, etc…..it’s bonkers.

ViciousCurrentBun · 06/04/2025 07:10

We are waiting for a few more days and DH plans to invest more.
@lucywho123 you do need to think long term, overall it seems like as an individual you find the falls far too stressful. Over the last 25 years we have made far more by investing but look at that length of time. There was a day many years ago that DH lost 25k on one day. I wouldn’t move your money now but as you need it soon perhaps just chuck further money in to a savings account.

hattie43 · 06/04/2025 07:12

ive lost over £100k thanks to trump but I’m just going to leave and ride it out . I retired last year so not great timing but I have enough cash to pay living costs for a while . I find it incredible that one man has enough power to bring the worlds financial economy to its knees .

ThisPinkBee · 06/04/2025 07:17

For manufacturing to be profitable you need end to end production in the same country. Not sure they have this, not without huge investment. Sheertex is one company I can think of.

As an aside it's pretty disastrous for inequality as any profits will get creamed off by shareholders and aren't going to level up living standards.

kiraric · 06/04/2025 07:21

It is painful looking at my S&S ISA

However, looking at it over the longer term, even taking the average right now at a dip, I have still made 6-7% over the last 6 years on the stock market which beats what was available on cash ISAs

What it has really driven home for me is not leaving funds in until the last minute. Ours are primarily for retirement (20 years away) and kids university costs (10 years away) and it's made me realise that I should start derisking the portfolio maybe 3-4 years out. And also building more of a buffer zone in a cash ISA.

I have also considered buying stocks as I did very well buying during the COVID slump but I think things may get worse before they get better so thinking to wait for a few days at least first

FinishLast · 07/04/2025 08:57

This is a really useful read, thank you.

For the first time I was thinking of an S&S ISA (usually Cash ISA) to invest for at least five years.

Is it a good time to do this or not. I know that S&S can go down as well as up. What are the chances of a positive return?

FatCatSkinnyRat · 07/04/2025 09:01

FinishLast · 07/04/2025 08:57

This is a really useful read, thank you.

For the first time I was thinking of an S&S ISA (usually Cash ISA) to invest for at least five years.

Is it a good time to do this or not. I know that S&S can go down as well as up. What are the chances of a positive return?

The market is on sale - it is a great time to buy! As long as you don't need the money in the next couple of years. I'd pile in to an index tracker if I were you - VWRP / VWRL or similar