Dominic C Covid evidence 2

[Newtonianmechanics]

New thread for if old fills up.

Practically speaking a stringent border process would delay for a matter of days

Complete border control and quarantine unlikely to work, or impossible

UK unilateral border decisions little impact.

Like that he talks about huge societal and economic problem rather than just health problem

Could have done with this with in all those repeated border discussions. All that NZ Aus stuff that tirelessly cropped up here throughout.

It was escalated but will come back to it to say what happened

Geez this guy really is looking for an angle

CW is a calm intellect in comparison

Technical response in terms of CFR etc right at the beginning were very good

To add to closing borders unlikely to work, he also said

Genetic testing showed the vast majority of Covid infections were spread not by Chinese travellers, but by British tourists coming back from half-term holidays in mainland Europe in mid-February.

But he also said tougher quaratine should be an option for the authorities to consider in any future outbreak.

And

What might have happened if China had shut its own borders right at the start of the pandemic is a "different matter", he goes on to say.

https://twitter.com/implausibleblog/status/1726992225316250058?t=pjpFbbWqOFJZHVfZXaj15g&s=19

Painful exchange where Hugo Keith asks Chris Whitty why, when he knew covid was a threat, it wasn't escalated. Chris Whitty's response was wanting #CovidInquiry

Hugo Keith, "On the basis there was a massive threat, why in mid February 2020 weren't you and others also aware of that threat were not shouting out your concerns that central government has failed to understand the threat?"

Chris Whitty, "Short of.. I mean.. It's difficult to work out where you can go once you have talked to all the people I had talked to.. Patrick Vallance also tried to escalate this.. It's not that there weren't attempts to do this.. I'm not convinced if we had done things differently it would have led to a different outcome.. Nobody looking at this would consider it ideal"

HK, "That is, with the greatest respect, quite an understatement. This was a hugely significant moment"

CW, "It demonstrates an issue which needs to be thought through"

https://twitter.com/implausibleblog/status/1726998086302544122?t=ADUeemRmu3_7qjYkFiFrUw&s=19

Hugo Keith, "You said you do think Cabinet recognised there was a significant threat, did they sufficiently recognise it, because members of government didn't understand the science"

Chris Whitty, "Do I think that most people round the table fully grasped what would happen if it started to rise exponentially? I suspect the answer to that is no"

HK, "It was your job to help them understand"

CW, "I was doing my best" #CovidInquiry

Thanks for the link

The Feb 2020 half term travel situation (restrictions only on China, not Italy) was very foolish, at the time at work I remember many discussions about whether people should cancel their skiiing trips.

I also worked with someone who was originally from Northern Italy - it was amazing really nothing was done to delay given the government knew we were completely unprepared.

Yes, this is a big question.

I really could have done with that border stuff early on in the pandemic

The amount of posters who referenced Aus / NZ was ludicrous and showed very poor understanding of borders and the virus

Finally! Sir Chris Whitty clears it up

I’ll take that for my portion of taxpayer money

Placemarking

Thank you so much for all this reporting.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1727068613386154357.html

Whitty's testimony didn't come with the headline-grabbing revelations of other testimonies but it was one of the most illuminating of the Inquiry so far.

Particularly in terms of timeline and where the govt properly failed.

Here's my impression of it and some key moments...
1/n

Thanks @DuncinToffee

We have JVT tomorrow.
Not to lower the tone, but I have a "thing" for JVT, so this is going to be a treatf for me.

I will declare fully, in advance, I will be biased and everything he says will be praised.

Whitty will comtinue with his evidence as well.

I think it starts earler, at 9.30am

Damn, I'll have to be patient for JVT.

Although I've missed PV and CW (butbread your updates), so I'll send the time catching up on their testimony.

@DuncinToffee thank you for your summary, very interesting.

I am trying to catch up on You Tube.

I always felt the scientists were credible and in particular that Chris Whitty was really impressive. Although I did like JVT too, particularly his I want to answer the question - the rules apply to everyone.

If you go back to the very first Public briefings, CW was clear excess deaths could only be measured after the pandemic was over as they included people who died of cancer, heart attacks etc. because they didn’t get treatment. This demonstrated to me he really did think about public health in the broadest sense.

Chris Whitty on herd immunity

We’re now onto the idea of herd immunity, which Whitty says was misunderstood by many.

It would be “inconceivable” to have it as a policy goal, and would have brought “extraordinarily high loss of life”, while v possibly not even doing what it was meant to.

Whitty on herd immunity: “My view is it was clearly a ridiculous goal of policy, and a dangerous one, and lots of what was said [about it] could have led to considerable confusion, and did.

”Chris Whitty says he sent WhatsApps to a group including Boris Johnson, Matt Hancock and officials urging people to not discuss herd immunity: “Frankly there was a lot of chatter by people who at best half understood the issues.”

I'm watching it today

CW is being careful with his wording, but he said herd immunity was debated. But he tried to explain why it wouldn't work.

He also said "no sensible people were talking about herd immunity in public".
The KC, also very carefully, asked if he was referring to government ministers talking to the press, CW said yes but wouldn't name names.

I

Via Peter Walkier on twitter

Chris Whitty on the Great Barrington Declaration: "I thought it was flawed at multiple levels”. It was implicitly based on the idea of lifelong post-infection immunity, he says, which turned out to be incorrect.

Whitty also uses the example of Boris Johnson for the difficulties of deciding who should shield. Johnson was not, he says, someone who would be identified as being especially vulnerable, but nonetheless was extremely ill with Covid.

Asked why idea of herd immunity gained currency, Whitty says 3 reasons: 1/ modellers using the term 2/ some people who “ran with it in a somewhat confused way” and 3/ those who actively advocated it. Of the last group, he says: “I think they were just wrong, straightforwardly”.

I think Chris Whitty doesn't need to name people, his evidence is devestating enough in a quiet understated way.

Now talking about CW important report about direct and indirect deaths because of covid.

CW explaining why he wrote the report, because there was no overall strategy for dealing with covid and the long term impact.

Absolutely.

I'm just nosey, and need to know 😁

Me too

Wow. On 21st Match, PV and CW predicted the London ITU would be overwhelmed within 9 days.

That's quite a stark figure to show how bad it was going to get.