Dominic Cummings Covid evidence

[Newtonianmechanics]

Is anyone going to watch this man give evidence today?

Apparently there is a vigil in Barnard Castle ahead of this.

The shopping trolleys emoji seems to mean they think Carrie was controlling Boris from the last few days. Wonder if this will feature.

Yes, it was the perfect example of how journalists come on here to MN and deliberately try to set up a rumpus.

https://x.com/jim_reed/status/1725085289591255376?s=20

Another big week at the #covidinquiry next week with major focus on science. Sir Patrick Vallance, Sir Chris Whitty, (Sir) JVT, Dame Angela McLean, Dame Jenny Harries and then Kemi Badenoch at the end of the week.

In the comments underneath the above tweet there are questions about the Inquiry being halted otday because Baroness Hallett is ill with Covid

This is from the Inquiry account

For reasons beyond our control, the preliminary hearing for Module 2B scheduled for Thursday 16 November will no longer be taking place. The Inquiry wishes to apologise for any inconvenience this may cause.

We will need another thread for all those witnesses! Vallance's diary will feature prominently presumably.

Thank you for the update.

I dont watch the preliminary hearings, just the Public ones.

I can see Monday 20th Patrick Vallance will be on for the full day
Tuesday 21st, Chris Witty will be on all day too.

They are going to be knackered.

PV today

Sir Patrick described Mr Johnson's decision-making during the pandemic as "bipolar" and "completely inconsistent", referring to "chaos" in Downing Street.
He wrote: "This flip-flopping is impossible. One minute do more, next do nothing."
Sir Patrick has objected to the publication of his pandemic-era diary in full, saying they were written "at the end of immensely stressful days to protect his mental health".

A twitter thread highlighting some of Valance's diary entries

https://x.com/jim_reed/status/1725873169595003164?s=20
Monday should be VERY interesting at #covidinquiryUK as Sir Patrick Vallance, then chief scientific adviser, gives evidence. We've already seen extracts from his private diaries or evening notes - described as a 'brain dump' to protect his mental health. Let's take a look... 1/n

(It's also linked on the Guardian's live blog)

Sir Patrick Vallance (Former Government Chief Scientific Adviser) has now been sworn in and begins his evidence.

He is being questioned by Counsel to the Inquiry Andrew O’Connor KC.

(Patrick Vallance has done a 200 page witness statement, and a supplementary statement)

I will try to update this thread whilst multitasking

200 page wow! Though BBC initially reported it as 200 words.🤦‍♀️

So far it has been about Valance explaining his role as GCSA during the pandemic.

Modelling and the NHS being overwhelmed now

Thank you for the updates @Newtonianmechanics and @DuncinToffee .I can't watch live today, so I'll catch up later.

I can understand why PV is unhappy at his full diary being published, as it was a way to help him through that horrible time.
But, on the other hand, I am grateful the diary has been published, as it is important contemporaneous recording of what happened.

Jim Reed

Vallance just made an important point which was quickly picked up by Baroness Hallett.
He was being asked about the early stages of pandemic - in February 2020 - as cases started rising in the UK and hospitals in northern Italy started to come under pressure.
He said researchers, including Prof Neil Ferguson from Imperial College London, had been working to understand the level of restrictions that would be needed to reduce Covid transmission in this country.
A rough estimate of a 75% reduction in contacts between individuals would be needed, he added.
But - crucially - Vallance added: "I am not convinced that there was a very effective operational response to that".
Using diplomatic language he is saying that, although the scale of the crisis was starting to become apparent, policies were not put in place fast enough to deal with it.
The conversation quickly moved on but Baroness Hallett interjected and asked Andrew O'Conner KC, the lawyer asking the questions, if he would return to that point.
He agreed he would later in the session.

Valance says 14/15 March was moment of realisation.

"We were much further ahead in the pandemic than we'd realised.

"It was far more widespread and accelerating faster than anyone expected.. there was an imminent problem of the NHS collapsing not something that was weeks away".

I agree. It is very interesting but he will feel uncomfortable.

A functioning Test and Trace and Isolation system as well as social distancing and hand washing would very likely have avoided longer lockdowns.

March ‘20, Prof Vallance raised in Gov. meeting that London should be locked down:

“I got a message that Chris Wormald was incandescent with rage… I was told I hadn’t done things in the right way & it was inappropriate for me to have raised that”

Are you sure you don't mean a Cabinet Minister for Children?

https://x.com/tamcohen/status/1726570837481005520?s=20

Back in Jan/Feb, Valance stresses that how it would spread in UK was unknown.

Recounts meeting with Boris Johnson in diary in which PM says “my gut tell me this will be fine”.

Valance says Boris Johnson gave up science aged 15 and he “struggled with the concepts and we had to repeat them often… it was hard work sometimes”.

NZ had a highly functioning test and trace system, closed borders and draconian measures - and one of the longest lockdowns in Auckland

It takes a lot to control Covid

Confused ... bamboozled ... impossible' - Vallance's diary provides multiple examples of Boris Johnson struggling to understand scientific advice

O’Connor asks about Boris Johnson’s understanding of scientific concepts. He shows the inquiry a series of extracts from Vallance’s diary which provide evidence of this.
This extract, from May 2020, describes Johnson as being “clearly bamboozled” by modelling on schools.

via Guardian live blog

Same for Melbourne

High border control, quarantine, extreme measures, one of the longest lockdowns

Haha just saw that pp still committed to posting same thing from ages ago 🥴

Some good head space invested there

Discussing public messaging now

Explanation from Jim Reed what Spi B is

There is a lot of talk at the moment about a group called Spi-B.
This was a committee of around 60 behavioural scientists which fed into the main Sage group of scientific advisers.
Most of the group were independent academics, although some individuals working for the government were also members, including Prof David Halpern, who runs the 'nudge' unit in the cabinet office.
Through the pandemic it produced advice for ministers on subjects like adherence to lockdown measures and the impact of restricting mass gatherings.
Its co-chair, Prof James Rubin, who gave evidence earlier in this inquiry, said that often members felt their work went into a "black hole" when it was sent to the government.