If Putin does detonate a nuclear bomb ...

[maranella]

... what do you think the West will do?

Biden seems to be taking the threat very seriously and the Ukraine govt has handed out iodine tablets to it's citizens, so they seem to be taking it seriously too.

Yes, I think this is very pertinent indeed and a conventional response from the US, given it's enormous capabilities is much more likely. The US is not going to want to escalate the nuclear element of any conflict (@1dayatatime that video is fucking terrifying - anyone with anxiety about this issue should absolutely NOT WATCH IT!!)

This was a sobering read in today's Telegraph.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/07/west-denial-putins-nuclear-bombs/

Putin’s dreams – of Ukraine reincorporated into Russia, of breaking Nato, of Russia leading a global anti-Western alliance – are collapsing around him. We do not know exactly what will come next, but we know disaster for Russia’s imploding armed forces probably awaits and that at some point Ukraine’s armed forces will probably break Russia’s land corridor linking Crimea to the Donbas.

At that point, Putin will make one of the most fateful decisions of the century: whether to escalate to the use of nuclear weapons.

I spent parts of our Tory party conference in the company of Ukrainian MPs. Our Ukrainian friends believed that the nuclear decision point would come sooner rather than later. I cannot say definitively whether Putin will use nuclear weapons, but I know the best way to reduce the risk of such an extraordinarily dangerous decision will be for the collective West to take this threat seriously.
We live in serious times. Saying Putin is bluffing is no longer serious.

Bob Seely is Conservative MP for the Isle of Wight and sits on the Foreign Affairs Committee. He has a PhD from King's College London in Russian military strategy

I was wondering the same.

When they talk about nukes being dropped, do they mean in Ukraine or that he may nuke the West? Or both? 😧

It would be in or near Ukraine I assume - of course this puts him in a difficult position because if your starting point is that Ukraine is part of Russia then you’re essentially bombing yourself. Bombing anywhere in the west is declaring war on that country as well as attracting the might of NATO so I can’t see that happening.

And one battlefield nuke really wouldn’t be devastating - do you know how many nuclear bombs have been detonated on this planet? Yes they have long- lasting, detectable effects but we wouldn’t all be staggering around with radiation sickness.

I would be reasonably confident that NATO could degrade much of Russia's nuclear capability before they even get out of the blocks - using a variety of communications jamming technologies, for example. They just wouldn't work.

As pps have mentioned, the present conflict is really showing up the Russian military as poorly equipped and organised. It just seems so unlikely that this form will change with regard to nuclear capability. Western leadership appears unconcerned for the simple reason that they aren't.

It'll be fascinating to see the situation a year or two further on, but I have a notion that it will not involve Vlad the Bad.

Should I be buying iodine tablets? <anxious and don’t want to google as scared of results>

@Usou makes a good point about the relative unconcernedness of the West.

Does Russia have the capability and willingness to explode a small tactical nuke? I think yes on both counts. That’s a real worry of course and not to be played down. Do they have the capability to launch an all-out worldwide nuclear war like the type in that (somewhat silly and outdated) video linked above? I highly doubt it. That involves subs, long-range missiles, planes, and so so many working, equipped, warheads. That video showed Russia alone equalling the fighting power of all the NATO states. Maybe in the 1980s they had that but they can’t even defend their territory in Ukraine! They’re sending conscripts in without tents, uniforms or food and somehow we’re supposed to believe they’re maintaining a highly specialised, technical fleet of nukes? They’ve held all these skilled, trained soldiers back from Ukraine to sit around missile silos polishing warheads?

One take of Biden's unguarded comment and articles like the one above is to reinforce the belief in the west that Putin isn't bluffing and that as Biden says the threat of nuclear apocalypse is real. Behind the scenes, one can easily imagine that Zelensky is being pressured by the US to accept some sort of compromise to give Putin that off-ramp that Biden mentioned however distasteful and difficult that might be.

@Usou makes a good point about the relative unconcernedness of the West.

Hmm, I'm sorry, but I don't believe for a second that Western govts aren't concerned and taking this threat very seriously indeed behind closed doors. They won't want to give Putin the impression that they're taking him seriously and there is nothing to gain from scaring ordinary people, but behind the scenes I'd like to know what conversations are going on between NATO leaders. They and military leaders MUST be preparing for various scenarios and responses. To do anything else would be utterly irresponsible.

Could there be the chance China could turn on Russia if they used even a small nuclear weapon? I don’t know. But if China were to do that, they would surely crumble as a country pretty quickly, they’d be pretty much isolated by the entire world by then.

They send cosmonauts into space and run atomic power stations without issue and have the scientific competency and resources to maintain such infrastructure. Their arsenal is probably not what it was but will have enough firepower to cause unbelievable misery if ever unleashed. The question is do we really want to test the theory that it is unworkable?

They are also rumoured to have developed atomic suitcase bombs that could destroy the centre of a city and be deplored by a single operative.

www.nytimes.com/2022/10/03/us/politics/russia-tactical-nuclear-weapons.html

I don’t think anyone’s suggesting that they’re not worried behind the scenes and planning - of course they are - but they’re always planning for a range of possible scenarios. By unconcerned I meant not panicking, not ramping stuff up unnecessarily etc. Exactly this sort of situation will have been studied in war games many, many times. It’s not exactly unexpected from Putin.

I'm sure they are taking the nuclear threat very seriously indeed. It would be foolish not to.

It's difficult to underestimate how bad things are for the Russians at the moment. Their Ls of C are in poor shape, and there is no guarantee that fresh reserves of personnel and armour can even get to the (rapidly shifting) front lines. This is against a well motivated and organised army using basically the same equipment with some very welcome Western additions, and good training and intelligence.

Poot can blether about nukes all he wants, and it would be a highly unwelcome and unpredictable development, but he also knows it might all be over in a few days - along with his fabled Red Army..

Pretty much everything is radioactive.

If it does go all out nuclear which cities do you think would be targeted in the UK besides London ? I know we will probably all be over but I am just wondering if it’s worth stocking up my cellar with provisions here in Wales 😂

I've purchased iodine tablets just in case.

I think if it happened he wouldn’t target major cities and instead detonate large bombs on unpopulated or remote areas with low population rates and make sure those in cities suffered more from an not instant death and/or radiation

I know! You summed it up well.

Reminds me of the opening of ‘children of the dust’

It’s worrying how fast this is now escalating , is there any good possible outcome ? If Ukraine gives in does that mean Putin will go on threatening to take over more countries. If he’s stood up to does that lead to a nuclear war ? I am hoping his own people will revolt as surely they must be as scared as us !

Yes seeing each news report and now the bridge on fire is concerning. I know he can’t be allowed free rein to do as he pleases but every development that we know will piss him off is just so worrying. Can’t blame Ukraine for defending themselves but the fact it’s annoying the person who has the means to destroy the planet is terrifying 😞

I guess if Putin wanted to sabre rattle he could send a nuke as a demo test to some uninhabited area of Russia to demonstrate capability which apart from testing treaties and the like doesn't cross a red line but would be a sombre moment for sure. It would also test the readiness of the command structure to implement such a decision. I guess we would only know about such an incident after it happened and if it failed we might never know that it had.

I think it's time to make sure we have iodine tablets. They'll definitely nuke Ukraine after that bridge destruction. And despite the fact Ukraine is far, far away we can still get radioactive s*it with wind.

I doubt you could even get hold of them but countries are taking this seriously for sure.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/20007406/ukraine-kyiv-gives-out-potassium-iodine-pills-nuke-attack/

notesfrompoland.com/2022/10/06/hundreds-of-iodine-distribution-points-prepared-in-warsaw-in-case-of-nuclear-disaster-in-ukraine/

www.reuters.com/world/us/us-buys-radiation-sickness-drug-part-long-standing-program-2022-10-07/

I cannot believe some of the ill-informed, alarmist content on this thread from people who have no idea what they are talking about. With the exception of a couple of posters, it’s embarrassing how many people have done nothing other than scan the headlines without any understanding of the bigger picture. There are plenty of freely available and balanced sources of information out there, so instead of scaring others to death, take some responsibility and educate yourselves.