Is there a thread about the poisoning of Skripal? [title edited by MNHQ]

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I've not seen a thread about it at all, but surely there must be?

Thanks Thierry and Patriarchy. I still think it's very strange that something so absolutely lethal, didn't kill. Was it botched? Was it mixed incorrectly by someone who didn't know what they doing?

May have been botched, or may just be the method itself - they were obviously supposed to die unpleasantly in public which means you have to use an amount or route that’s not enough to kill instantly if they were exposed at home.
That introduces a lot of margin for error I guess.

Chemical weapons aren't neccesarly as lethal as they are sometimes portrayed in the movies.

People have taken significant exposure to things like Sarin and survived, although often they wished they hadn't.

I don't know much about Novichoks, most of it is secret for obvious reasons, but even if the agent was 6-8 times more lethal than VX, it still would require an exposure to a minimum amount to be lethal. That minimum amount may not be much, but it would be more than microscopic certainly. You're talking a few hundred/thousand microgrammes maybe?

Georgedawes I agree. I feel like Putin knows full well there’s no one with much clout to stand up to him now. I’m really worrying about national security after leaving EU as I don’t think we can really count on U.S as an ally in the way we once could.

You can also treat nerve agent poisoning- and the likelihood of being able to treat is increased if you get to someone fast and they’ve had a smaller dose via skin. You need to administer the counter agents like atropine and pralidoxine AND you decontaminate and keep on decontaminating because the stuff keeps spreading and seeping through the skin.
If you get someone quick enough and they’ve had a low enough dose, their chances are fair. Don’t forget that if just bumping them off was the aim they would be dead - using something like a nerve agent in public is about sending a message, not just killing someone.

Patriarchy and Kochab thanks very interesting and terrifying. So does this new info mean that people who were in the restaurant etc should be more worried about contamination?

I’m reading that novichok is designed to cause asphyxiation and ultimately cardiac arrest. Does the fact that, presumably, neither Skirpal has entered cardiac arrest mean there is a better chance of survival do we think?

We don't know that any of the victims didn't suffer a cardiac arrest. It's entirely possible that one or more did. Might explain why at least two are still critically ill in Intensive Care.

Tory party won't return £820,00 of Russian linked money donated to their party

Yes. You can’t easily employ sanctions if your on the payroll. Let’s see what they actually do. I am concerned that May delayed and delayed with Litvinenko enquiry. Same reason probably.

It seems to me that Putin wants to precipitate some sort of show down. Why else use novichok, knowing that it will be traced directly to Russia?

NATO Article 5?

en.m.wikisource.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty#Article_5

Extremely jingoistic talk this evening from both sides.
I wonder if the Doomsday Clock might move forward a smidge in the coming days.
I'm very intrigued by the silence eminating from the states.

could the assassination agent have been in their house, a short-lasting agent that they both touched and it was absorbed through their skin?

Then 2- 4 hours later the policeman came and touched the same surface (door handle?). Because it was becoming less effective, he got a lesser dose?

You wonder if Yulia was deliberately targetted or if she was an accidental side-victim. If she was deliberately targetted then it is an extra vicious touch. If not, then I wonder if the neurotoxin had been there a while and it was coincidence that it was activated at the same time she was there.

I wonder if the Russians have the habit of slow kills (thinking of Litvinenko) or if this was a dose intended to kill fast which went amiss. That could argue for maybe the neurotoxin being there a while and only just activated, longer for something to go wrong ... it would be fascinating to know the whole story. Not that we ever will!

sorry, the thread had moved on by the time I hit Post ...

I think we like to think we're a bigger player internationally in the UK than we really are

In global politcs agreed, but the UK is still a very powerful economy (although probably lessening) and somehow I have the suspicion the UK still has a powerful espionage presence.

It won't be viewed as an Article 5 issue as it was not an attack on the sovereignty of the UK, just an attack on an individual within our borders.

I strongly suspect the US are staying deliberately quiet on this one as they don't want to be drawn into anything they can't then be seen to back away from.

They have enough going on with NK right now anyway. This is a distraction they don't need.

That’s a good question. If it was on their person somehow then at the time, it’s possible that anyone physically interacting with them could have been affected.
The fact that there hasn’t been any large scale decontamination of the restaurant or the area suggests the powers that be were quickly aware of the agent used and it’s properties and that it wasn’t present in sufficient amount to cause issues. The first responders weren’t hurt either (I think?) so this suggests a single source of exposure (house?) and a route that isn’t making the person too much of a danger to others. So perhaps it was inhaled after all? Public information about these new agents is minimal, for good reasons.

Having said that, it’s a risky assumption - one person hugging them immediately after the exposure? A child exposed? It’s scary stuff

When I first heard them say fentanyl and then a Russian spy in the same breath I thought it’d be something like this.

Yes it’s possible they suffered one or more cardiac arrests - the agents used block the signalling molecule (acetylcholine) that makes muscles relax, so in effect your heart and diaphragm just clench up - that’s what the atropine works against but it’s not as simple as just banging a syringe in and everything is Ok. Atropine in itself is dangerous stuff.
They are all likely to suffer at least some long term effects. The police officer I think seems to be doing better probably because he sought attention quickly and they probably had an idea what they were dealing with by then.

The UK has always punched above its weight in terms of dealings with Russia - our intelligence was critical in resolving the Cuban missile crisis for example. Things have gone downhill badly recently as Putin wanted some of his internal enemies deported and the UK refused. Now there is a LOT of Russian money and players over here as well. I doubt we even know a few percent of what goes on tbh. I wonder how history will record all this?

Just been to Waitrose for petrol and drove back through the central car park and city...the police have now cordoned off all the entrances to Sainsburys...this is getting more strange every day...

The silence from the US seems quite unusual. Is it?

Sorry - see someone has answered with regard to US silence.

I’ll also say as well that the way the planet is going, Russia would be better kept on side and relations improved rather than as any kind of mortal enemy. Things seem to be sliding towards conflict and that is not something that anyone is going to win, to put it mildly. The UK and Russia have a much longer history than the USA and Russia and we’ve not always been at each other’s throats.

Some serious behind the scenes politicking is hopefully going on to de escalate this whole thing. And yes, the Trump administration is notable in their silence. Russia has compromised their whole democratic process yet there’s no massive outcry. Madness. Utter madness.

If you look back a bit longer in history (i.e. the Cold War), the silence from the US is extraordinary. No wonder Putin feels untouchable, frankly it seems like he is! The US have even admitted that Russia is planning to attack the November midterm elections and they have not done anything about it.

Then 2- 4 hours later the policeman came and touched the same surface (door handle?). Because it was becoming less effective, he got a lesser dose?

I’ve also wondered if it was transferred via the door handle.

I would expect silence from US until the British authorities had told them what was going on, which would happen after Parliament was told (or if before, at working level, then strictly embargoed until then). Though of course the' have a good idea of what the assessment wukd be, as I expect there would have been cooperation between military scientists and intelligence officers as they worked out the science of it.

Washington is 4 hours behind us, so perhaps statement soon?

I'd be extremely surprised if Trump (not members of his administration who may speak out) says or does anything critical of Putin. If he won't even acknowledge the Russian attacks on US democracy, or indeed make any attempt to stop them, why would he get involved in this?

Trump is simulataneosly terrified of and admiring of Putin.

The Russians have hijacked their election, god knows what they really have on Trump and yet you can pretty much see Trump whining to his staff ‘why can’t I do (insert whatever dictatorial thing he wants to do.)’

Trump has no respect for the constitution or the position he holds. If he could act like an out and out dictator he would. Vlad is the scary kid at school who gets the girls and whose parents allow him guns and Trump has a massive man crush on him.

Russia seems to be waging a silent guerilla war by stealth. Not only these attacks but coordinated attempts to interfere in elections and referendums via social media influencers.
Kochab. I agree that keeping them onside is important. I don’t want a slide into conflict with our young people facing them over the Finish border. However, putting the public at risk as they carry out assassinations in the U.K. is terrifying.
I’m not at all sure how to handle it but the financial rote seems an obvious one as it will diminish their influence. We chase the oligarchs out of London by freezing their assets unless they can demonstrate thy are legitimately acquired. No p9litical donations of Russian money to either parties or campaigns.

Does Skripal have UK citizenship?