is it really possible that Donald trump could be president????? [Part 2]

[claig]

From now on the race becomes winner take all. If Trump wins Florida on March 15, it is probably all over.

'The Republican Party now has 14 days to stop Trump'

www.vox.com/2016/3/2/11144812/super-tuesday-results-donald-trump-wins

Yes, I think it is torture. I am against it since it is against the law.

I am against torture because it is evil. In many countries it is standard practice, not illegal, but that never makes it moral.

In fairness, senators and congresspersons of both parties - including supposedly leftwing Democrat leader Nancy Pelosi - were briefed about ongoing torture from at least 2002 and acquiesced for years.
Wsj and many other sources for this.

The US public supports torture - far more Republicans than Democrats, but a sizeable % of both

Shortly after 9/11, I remember watching a US current affairs TV program with reps of both parties:
they were discussing not whether torture was justified - they all totally accepted it was - but whether the FBI could do it within the USA, or whether torture should be restricted to the CIA abroad. So it was totally accepted then.

So, supporting waterboarding is unlikely to cause Trump voters to stop supporting him in the primaries, probably not even to put off other voters in the November election

Trump has said some crazy things. People tend to not believe that he will do them, so they ignore them.

Cruz and Rubio also said they would bring back waterboarding 6 Feb debate

imo, either would be an even worse prospect as president:
. They have far more brutal right wing economic views than blowhard Trump and want to actively punish the poor
. They said they'd tear up the treaty with Iran
. They'd go after Putin, maybe blundering into war
. They'd go all out to prevent access to abortion, especially evangelist nutjob Cruz

Yes, I agree.

Rumours are that Trump will still struggle to win. They are determined to go for a brokered convention, Kasich seemed very confident that that might happen. Romney is still in the wings, possibly ready to take over. Rumours that a war chest of $145 million has been set up to hit Trump.

Can Trump outsmart them? We will have to wait and see, but they are petrified of what he will do and are desperate to stop him.

Some of the things that Cruz and Rubio are saying are just bluster in order not to be outflanked by Trump.

Trump's strategy has been to go for the lines, for the extremes where the others can't follow in order to pretend that he is tougher. They then desperately scramble to catch up. In the Feb 6 debate, they asked Cruz first if he agreed with waterboarding and he wasn't sure and then Trump jumped in and trumped him by saying he was for it and "a whole lot more". A lot of this is just bluster to appear tough.

Trump has said some crazy things. People tend to not believe that he will do them, so they ignore them.

It's a great winning strategy.
He is great because of what he says.
But we don't believe what he says because it's crazy.
And again, different people choose to ignore what they want, so that Trump represents different things to different people.

But he's great, and the only one speaking the truth. But then he isn't.

Seriously, how do you reconcile all this in your head?

Trump is not as hardline as he makes out. In January he had an off the record discussion with the New York Times about what he really thought about immigration. This fact got leaked and now all his opponents are demanding that he agree for it ti be released and he is refusing. They think it will hurt him if the public finds out he is not that tough on it, but nothing will hurt Trum because so many people believe that Trump is "on their side".

Exactly. And you don't see how screwed up that is?

'Seriously, how do you reconcile all this in your head?'

Simple, the same as all Trump fans do. We all think that Trump is "on our side". That is why Trump is teflon. Nothing they reveal about Trump will affect him because we all think he is "with us and not with them".

' And you don't see how screwed up that is?'

No. Why do you think that Trump has rallies of 25000 people?
We have never had anyone "on our side" and now we have got Trump to bat for us against them. That is why Trump can't be stopped. If the Establishment steal it from Trump at the Convention, it will just lead to the end of the Republican Party because millions of people will no longer vote for them.

They are prepared for that to happen because they prefer Hillary to win rather than Trump because they are frightened of what Trump will do to them when he opens up all the files.

This is a brilliant article that explains what is happening. The middle class has been ripped off by the elites and it is in revolt all over the world. Trump is the lightning rod that has channelled that energy. No one else in the world has yet been able to capture it because it takes amazing courage to do so.

"The Great Republican Revolt

The GOP planned a dynastic restoration in 2016. Instead, it triggered an internal class war. Can the party reconcile the demands of its donors with the interests of its rank and file?

he angriest and most pessimistic people in America aren’t the hipster protesters who flitted in and out of Occupy Wall Street. They aren’t the hashtavists of #BlackLivesMatter.
...
The angriest and most pessimistic people in America are the people we used to call Middle Americans. Middle-class and middle-aged; not rich and not poor
...
White Middle Americans express heavy mistrust of every institution in American society: not only government, but corporations, unions, even the political party they typically vote for—the Republican Party of Romney, Ryan, and McConnell, which they despise as a sad crew of weaklings and sellouts. They are pissed off. And when Donald Trump came along, they were the people who told the pollsters, “That’s my guy.”

They aren’t necessarily superconservative. They often don’t think in ideological terms at all. But they do strongly feel that life in this country used to be better for people like them—and they want that older country back.

You hear from people like them in many other democratic countries too. Across Europe, populist parties are delivering a message that combines defense of the welfare state with skepticism about immigration; that denounces the corruption of parliamentary democracy and also the risks of global capitalism. Some of these parties have a leftish flavor, like Italy’s Five Star Movement. Some are rooted to the right of center, like the U.K. Independence Party."

www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/01/the-great-republican-revolt/419118/

But it is not just a "white" thing, it is a middle class revolt and a working class one. We are all the same, all in it together against "them" - the elites who have ripped us off.

Trump supporters have switched off their brains, too angry to care about his inconsistencies & batshit moments.
How widespread is this rage is in the US ?

Within both parties and Independents, there seems a yearning to punish the Wall St gang who have wrecked prospects for ordinary Americans.
The revenge of the normally powerless against the ruling class: a desire to smash the system rigged against them

However, I suspect this revolution will only succeed in future elections, after people of all races join in. It is currently too small and monochrome

'this revolution will only succeed in future elections, after people of all races join in. It is currently too small and monochrome'

I think it will be this election that topples the establishment. As Robert Reich said "teh establishment is dying". It all depends if the Republican elite fail in their attempt to steal the nomination from Trump.

If Trump makes it into a head to head against Hillary, he will win and gather African-American and Hispanic voters because despite the fact that phoney consrvatives like Glenn Beck are now saying that Trump is like Hitler, he isn't racist. He employs people of all races, he has friends of all races - celebrity boxing promoter Don King and many others. When he starts properly selling his message of bringing jobs back for everyone of providing employment and a future to everyone, then race becoms irrelevant because everybody is an American who wants a great future for themselves and their families.

Hillary is lucky that all the Republicans are so godawful.

She has a high negative rating:
She represents Wall St and will always side with them against the interests of ordinary people of any race or country.

She is
. nasty - bloodthirsty wars for oil and "We came, we saw, he died", pandering to racism and demonising black teenagers as super-predators
. lying - "under sniper fire in the Balkans"
. sleazy / dodging indictments - EM servers when Secretary of State, the Clinton Foundation taking bribes from the worlds' billionaires, demonising those Bill has abused .....

Her skeletons need a bloody warehouse, not a closet

Hello again. I just wanted to pop by to say this:

Yes, and Trump is so fearless, so politically incorrect that he is going to tell the American people the full truth about Hillary. He says "believe me, I am the last person she wants to come uo against". Trump is a billionaire outsider, not one of the "political class", he owes none of them any favours and he will hold nothing back. Journalists are saying that it will be like nothing anyone has ever seen. That is one reason the Establishment want to stop him, because they are all in it together.

Fascinating and frightening to think that people like claig exist.

You might think not but then Trump does get a huge following. This is why crises make countries vulnerable to dictators and deranged leaders. People become capable of following any leader that promises the earth and beyond.

Nor too dissimilar to what happens with terrorist organisations.

claig always makes me think of how it must've been in Russia in 1917. A passionate throwing out of the baby with the bath water and eager enthusiasm that the people are in charge now.

Except Trump is no Lenin and America 2016 is nothing like Tsarist Russia in the grip of WW1.

Maybe Americans are fed up with endless policies that never come to fruition, and end just being empty words. Maybe the American empire is in decline, just as it started to take over from the British one about a century ago and I imagine that Americans have as hard a time accepting that as our grandparents did. Maybe people are fed up with the way politicians use long words to describe things that we already have a short name for - George Orwell saw that one coming in 1948 when he wrote 1984. I think these things would make you feel disillusioned.

The problem is, that whereas the Russian revolution was a genuine attempt to turn things around, there is no way on this earth that Donald Trump cares about anyone except himself and there's only so far his brash personality that seems to rely upon shocking rudeness can carry him. If he had not inherited a fortune, he'd just be the local bully running a small time business somewhere that the local children dare each other to annoy.

For me, the real issue in this election is the absence of any decent candidates. I think Donald Trump, being such a big personality, managed to make everything about himself at the Republican Party events, leaving the other candidates all looking a bit interchangeable and grey so that none of them have really broken through.

But what about the Democrats? Sanders and Clinton - what kind of choice is that?!

'Fascinating and frightening to think that people like claig exist.'

I am just like millions and millions of ordinary conservatives, the rank and file of the Republican voters.

'Instead, it triggered an internal class war. Can the party reconcile the demands of its donors with the interests of its rank and file?'

'They aren’t necessarily superconservative. They often don’t think in ideological terms at all. But they do strongly feel that life in this country used to be better for people like them'

This is a conservative revolution, not among ideological conservatives, just ordinary ones.

'"Trump’s appeal on the stump is a rejection of the conservative establishment '

But it is more than a conservative revolution, it is alos on the left with Bernie. It is a middle class revolution. But usually, the middle class is mainly conservative and they never usually revolt. That is why this is such an amazing political event. As former Governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee, says

"the government is being overthrown before our eyes"
"we are going through somewhat of a political revolution"
"this is now classic Louis XIV, Marie Antionette versus the people"

and Judge Jeanine Pirro says "there's an insurrection coming"

The man known as "Cameron's Brain" and "Mr Moderniser", Steve Hilton, has understood it exactly. He said

"what is going on here is actually pretty profound, we live in a world that is run by bankers, bureaucrats ... who champion globalisation ... people are sick of it, sick of being told to suck it up"

which is why the Guardian article was right

"The Republican candidate and German chancellor are polar opposites in the key struggle of our age

Two major concepts define the political struggle in the west today. One can be termed “globalism”"

and the other is its opposite "nativism", to bring jobs back and create an economy for the people.

'Except Trump is no Lenin and America 2016 is nothing like Tsarist Russia in the grip of WW1'

No, Trump is not Lenin because Lenin was an ideologue, an extremist. This is a middle class revolt, it doesn't want to destroy capitalism, it just wants to topple what Trump calls the "losers" who are in charge of the system and who are making America "lose" all the time.

What is so fascinating about this middle class revolution is that Trump is a capitalist, a businessman, a billionaire. He wants to make capitalism work again, make jobs for the iddle class again, bring jobs back and end "free trade" in favour of "fair trade". Trump is not an ideologue like Lenin or even Thatcher, he is just a pragmatist and a businessman who wants to "fix" America amd "make it great again".

'Maybe Americans are fed up with endless policies that never come to fruition, and end just being empty words.'

"Maybe people are fed up with the way politicians use long words to describe things that we already have a short name for"

Yes, they are fed up of "losers" and the control of empty words which is "political correctness" as used by the "political class".

'there's only so far his brash personality that seems to rely upon shocking rudeness can carry him'

I think it is precisely his rudeness and brashness that will carry him to the White House because it shows the people that he is prepared to insult and overthrow the "losers" who are in charge. He insults Bush, he insults McCain, he insults his opponents, so he is the voice of the people who are sick of the "losers" who haven't "fixed" the problems.

'But what about the Democrats? Sanders and Clinton - what kind of choice is that?!'

Sanders is part of a similar revolt to Trump. But I don't think that Sanders will win because he is not angry enough, he does not "insult" the ruling clas enough, he does not channel the middle class revolt enough, and he is not a businessman and so can't attract the majority of the middle class.

"Voter turnout shows Trump, not Sanders, leading a revolution"

Clinton is just the Establishment in its other guise. If the contest is between Clinton and Trump, it will be the establishment versus the anti establishment (the people) and since the middle class is in revolt, I think Trump will win. With Clinton, it will just be more of the same, the continuation of the system, another 4 years of Obama etc. But I think America has moved beyond that and the middle class are in revolt.

It is not a socialist, Leninist revolution, it is a middle class, capitalist, pragmatic, business revolution which aims to "fix" America and "make it great again" by challenging globalism and globalisation and restoring national sovereignty and an economy that works for the people rather than the bankers.

Yes, var, I'm sure many people are disillusioned and ripe for demagogy.

Most elections are more based on propaganda than ideas or policies, anyway. But this shows clearly how people can easily be manipulated and don't bother to look at any real issues behind the show. What's sad is that they still refuse even when confronted.

I don't regret that none of the other Republican candidates have broken through so far:
they are all thoroughly nasty politicians of the far right. The current GOP is reminiscent of the fascist parties seen in the 1930s.
Trump just doesn't bother to hide his nastiness, but is an amateur politician. Cruz or Rubio might actually achieve more of their aims, which would be disastrous for anyone not wealthy.

Beenie would make a great president; he's definitely the only candidate who wants to help ordinary Americans.
Sadly, Hillary will almost certainly beat him.
Her economic policy is dictated by Wall St; her foreign policy is just that of any other neocon - bloodthirsty warmongering for oil.
Women and African Americans think she'll look after them - she will make all the right noises, but they'd better hope she doesn't ever see a political advantage in selling them out.

It is worth listening to the billionaire, Ken Langone, co-founder of Home Depot, and a Republican bigwig, who gets the enormity of what is happening

"the American people are saying we have had enough, Democrats and Republicans, they are saying nobody's listened to us... I think what we are witnessing is a peaceful revolution"