Brexit: what would happen to EU citizens living in UK?

[marghini]

I am a EU citizen and I have been living, working and paying taxes in the UK for a while.

I am really concerned about what would happen to the EU citizens who built a life for themselves and settled here in the UK in case of a Brexit.

Do you think all EU citizens already living in the UK would be pushed out? Or perhaps the government would just stop allowing further EU immigration?

At present when you cross the Channel by train or ferry, you go through border control in France, when boarding - there's no check on the UK side, you just walk or drive straight off. This is what some French would like to end - mostly local politicians in the nord-pas de calais area (many of whom are national front), but also some national politicians from both main parties, including some major figures.

If the French prevented checks from taking place on French soil it would place the burden on ferry operators and Eurostar, and at entry points in the UK. It would not be impossible to keep the borders closed (ultimately, the government could just impose swingeing financial penalties on any operator found guilty of transporting migrants, as is the case for lorry drivers now) but it would certainly screw with the cross channel business model.

The current treaty governing UK Border controls in northern France was negotiated partly a result of the number of immigrants claiming asylum on arrival at Waterloo (then the terminus for Eurostar).

Iceland does not have a separate relationship with the EU: it is a member of EFTA and has been for over 45 years! As such, free movement is part of the deal.

It's impossible to have a sensible discussion on this subject if people don't stick to the facts.

Iceland does not have a separate relationship with the EU: it is a member of EFTA and has been for over 45 years! As such, free movement is part of the deal.

Yes, but presumably the other countries had to agree that this would happen. You can't jsut join EFTA/EEA with no discussion or agreement?

Well, obviously ItsAll - that's what I said earlier (see my post from 11.15 this morning). Leaving the EU does not automatically confer membership of EFTA or the EEA, although presumably membership of those groups would be open on the usual terms ie a hefty payment and agreements on free movement.

I think that the ETFA solution would be palatable to many fence sitters worried about the economic impact of a brexit, but much less attractive to either the "kipper" grouping (who are mainly concerned about immigration) or the "sovereignty" crowd (Gove et al).

Does EFTA allow free movement of people, or jus trade?

Free movement as well as trade. In fact Switzerland is on course to lose parts of its trade deal for reneging on the free movement component.

www.efta.int/eea/policy-areas/persons/persons

No one gets to have their cake and eat it.

ItsAllGoingToBeFine

Iceland and Turkey have negotiated an agreement with the EU. We would have to do the same, and there is no guarantee in the outcome of those negotiations.

So Turkey and Iceland have secured tariff free deals with the EU but the 5th largest economy in the UK will face EU tariffs - I very much doubt it.

*We buy more from the EU that it buys from us

You have to remember the EU is much bigger than us. We import ~53% of our goods and services from the EU, this makes up about 16% of their exports. We stand to lose far more.*

That's not how economics works. They sell us more than we sell them. They are more vulnerable to reciprocal tariffs that we would be. We are a rich country that imports expensive goods, German cars, French wines. Their need to trade with rich countries like the UK is much greater than their need to trade with Greek farmers who cannot afford German cars.

*so if the EU insists on placing tariffs on trade with us they will be in breach of the Lisbon Treaty that prohibits the EU from treating a leaving country punitively.

Are you sure you mean the Lisbon treaty?*

Yes, the Lisbon Treaty was the first EU Treaty that prescribed a means by which a country could leave the EU. It legally obliges the EU to negotiate with a departing member and not to introduce punitive measures

springing are you proposing that the UK become part of EFTA, like Iceland, free movement and all?

I wouldn't be too concerned about Switzerland.

Switzerland has just withdrawn its application to join the EU

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3473932/Now-Swiss-withdraw-bid-join-EU-Nation-s-parliament-retracts-24-year-old-bid-member-amid-deepening-row-migration.html

Just like Iceland withdrew its application last year to join the EU.

I expect these countries will be very happy to enter into a mutually acceptable trade against with the UK when we leave the UK. I expect Norway will join them. We would be a rich Northern trading bloc within Europe.

Iceland, Switzerland and Norway will not leave EFTA/ the EEA in order to get into bed with the UK. And as part of EFTA they will not be able to negotiate unilaterally with the UK either.

As for the Lisbon treaty, the idea that withdrawal under article 50 is a risk free procedure is simply fantasy.

Article 50 provides that the EU will negotiate a new agreement with the withdrawing country over two years. That can be extended, but only by unanimous agreement. The article also specifies that, when agreeing a new deal, the EU acts without the involvement of the country that is leaving. To get a feel for the negotiating dynamic, imagine a divorce demanded unilaterally by one partner, the terms of which are fixed unilaterally by the other. (quote from this week's Economist - behind a paywall unfortunately).

They sell us more than we sell them.

In cash terms yes, not as a %age of their exports. Tariffs would impact 50% of our trade 16% of theirs...

The other point worth making regarding the balance of payments is that Britain's trade deficit with the EU is basically confined to two countries (Germany and Spain). But any trade agreement would require 25 member countries - some of them monumentally displeased with the UK - to sign on the dotted line ...

Iceland, Switzerland and Norway will not leave EFTA/ the EEA in order to get into bed with the UK. And as part of EFTA they will not be able to negotiate unilaterally with the UK either.

Invitation to trade via already being suggested by some Swiss and Icelandic politicians.

twitter.com/efta4uk/status/620175542327857156

The Telegraph thinks it viable

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11730318/Dear-Britain-there-is-life-outside-the-EU.html

As for the Lisbon treaty, the idea that withdrawal under article 50 is a risk free procedure is simply fantasy.

Never said it was 'risk-free'. Everything is risky. Staying in an unreformed EU is, in my opinion, much riskier than leaving.

I have read Article 50. It provides a framework for UK to negotiate a new relationship with the EU but we can simultaneously start trade talks with other potential partners in the rest of the world - something we are prevented from doing at present by the EU.

Helpfulchap

My posts do not mention 6 months are too much to wait. I know my posts are quite long.

Helpfulchap

Re: 6 months wait with your original documents (which could get lost in the post!)

As you can see, my point was even if you've lived here and paid tax for many years, they do not take that into consideration, they make you search for original papers of years ago, keep them for 6 months, and completely forget that you've lived and paid tax all those years, you are treated as a new foreigner who has only lived here 5 years and paid tax just 5 years. If you apply for a bank loan they ask you for less paperwork!
It's not easy to get all that paperwork just to proove you're European and to proove you've been working in the UK. (you already have a European ID, something Britain has not)

People can argue treaties, deals and arrangements til the cows come home but we all know when the dust settles - money talks.

If the EU or its nations think there is a quid to be made they will trade with anyone.

Money makes the world go round. Always has.

I don't really understand why this thread had got derailed into discussions of trade tbh, there are other threads where people can argue over the impact on the economy (hint: if it were that easy, trade blocs wouldn't exist in the first place. My boss told me yesterday that our employer is quietly starting to look at moving part of our European manufacturing base to continental Europe in order to mitigate the risk).

The one thing that can be said for certain is that a brexit would have negative consequences for those of us exercising our Euopean right of free movement. They might be just relatively minor inconveniences eg a requirement to obtain and carry paperwork proving residency rights, they might be worse eg a formal requirement for work visa, or the end of reciprocal healthcare rights and double taxation treaties. We don't know, because no one on the brexit side wants to talk about the impact on free movement of labour except to give the impression that they want to stop it (which rules out membership of EFTA/EEA).

It's very noticeable that no one will engage about EFTA/EEA membership and free movement; they like to dangle a "Norway" or "Iceland" solution without acknowledging that free movement would be part of the price of such a deal.

the Brexiters in this thread are basically saying "scaremongering - nothing will happen", yet none of them have attempted to answer my specific question:

what will happen to all the EU-overseas couples currently living in the UK? Currently the overseas partners are only allowed to live and work here because the EU partner is "exercising treaty rights". As the law currently stands, as soon as I stop exercising my treaty rights, my husband has to leave the UK.

It doesn't seem obvious at all to me that the UK will start handing out work visas to these overseas partners. They already try to restrict it for their own citizens, why would they do it for us.

Chalala honestly I think your concerns are valid.

I unfortunately don't have an answer about your situation, but I just wanted to say your worries should not be dismisses under a "nothing will happen" blanket.

chalala I think all of us who are exercising our right of free movement have reason to be concerned, some more than others (and in your shoes I'd be worried too).

I don't particularly worry about my own right to remain, but the one thing I am concerned about is what might happen if I needed to care for my mother in the future. After 2018, unless I already have citizenship (and this is looking more distant given the time it's taking to sort out DD's cut-and-dried, "simple" claim), she may no longer have no right to come here.

I am slightly concerned about my job too, though reassured to learn that my employer is already looking at relocating part of its manufacturing capacity from the UK to continental Europe.

Thanks marghini and Mistigri. The devil is always in the details isn't it...

what will happen to all the EU-overseas couples currently living in the UK? Currently the overseas partners are only allowed to live and work here because the EU partner is "exercising treaty rights". As the law currently stands, as soon as I stop exercising my treaty rights, my husband has to leave the UK.

I am in this boat. DP is european, I am not. I have a EEA permanent resident card valid for 10 years.

Just received our court summons, requiring DH and me to attend DD's citizenship hearing in two weeks' time. On the positive side, this means that one (out of four) of us should have dual citizenship by June :) at which point DH and I are no longer reliant on EU treaties for our right to remain.

On the negative side, I was supposed to be travelling for work on the court date, so my employer is having to expensively reschedule my trip ...

Mistigri

To get citizenship did you have to get the EU residence certificate £65 first? I was told to.

lonelycher we're actually in the opposite situation to you (British living in France). Rules are slightly different here - both my kids will acquire French citizenship automatically at 18 because they were born here. Because of the risk of a brexit, we are undertaking a legal procedure which allows them to claim citizenship early, and secures their right to free movement for their further education and work. DD is doing a bilingual Spanish-French high school course and may wish to study in Spain, so it's more urgent for her than for the rest of us. She will be going to uni in September 2018 - if a brexit has happened by then, she may need a French passport in order to be considered an EU student.

For DH and me, the rules are similar though not identical to the ones you have in the UK, ie we have the right to claim citizenship after 5 years. (We have been here since 1998). It's a hassle for us though as unlike our kids, we have to go through a full naturalisation procedure. I never imagined needing to do it, but here we are ...

With luck we can get French passports for both kids this year and then start on ours.