Greece part II

[Hullygully]

I would be very grateful if we could keep this about Greece, and those (two) who want to dance up and down jibing at Claig and calling her a fool and a kremlinbot and an anti-semite, start their own thread for that purpose.

Cheers

'Germany has been shown to be unbending - it was prepared to see Greece removed from the single currency.
It clearly did not trust Mr Tsipras and would have preferred to see him out of office and replaced by a technocratic government.'

I agree with this observation from the BBC's Gavin Hewitt wrt the profoundly undemocratic or even anti-democratic line Berlin has taken the OXI vote has been completely ignored but it should come as no surprise given the way Germany played hardball with Ukraine and co-operated (possibly too soft a word) in the US-inspired coup there, where a democratically elected government was upscuttled when it looked as if it was friendly to Russia and trying to get out of the clutches of Berlin.

The same thing has now happened to Tsipras, who approached Moscow a few months ago. He probably should have taken whatever deal Putin offered at that time. His successor (soon tba since his days are now numbered) will be either a Berlin-appointed technocrat (in similar vein to 'Yats' - Yatseniuk) or someone not at all wedded to the idea of the EU or the Euro or the IMF, placed in power by popular insurrection. Opposition to IMF involvement in Greece is something most Greeks can unite around, I would suspect. Maybe it's a good thing for Berlin that Greece has spent money on its army?

I think Hewitt is right about the fault line that has been exposed too -- 'There is now a fault-line in Europe. On one side are Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, Slovakia, Belgium, Finland, Latvia and Lithuania. They were prepared to see Greece leave the euro. On the other side are France, Italy, Spain and others clinging to their idea of a Europe of solidarity.' French technical experts assisted Greece with its proposals and though it has been denied, there was talk of a French loan. It is very clear that Germany speaks for money and represents the interests of money. I do not think this will go down well on the French side of the fault line.

Merkel stated a little while ago that the most important currency that was jeopardised in this crisis was trust. There are those in the EU who think the most important currency is respect for democracy, but maybe this is something that would not occur to Germany.

If Greece had defaulted, either America or the BRICS would have loaned Greece money. The EU could not let that happen because it would have spelt the end of their dream. They had to bail Greece out and we have still not been told the details of the debt restructuring that will surely follow. They will tell us when it is a good day to bury bad news, when something else is on the front pages.

'Yes, at the final meeting Germany had alrady been given the go ahead '

Germany and France decided, the rest were there for show.

'I do not think this will go down well on the French side of the fault line. '

Yes, trust between France and Germany has also been damaged and that will have political consequences. The whole episode has damaged European unity and stirred up a hornet's nest.

Theoldshmoo The EU doesn't have us over a barrel in the same way, so can't wage financial war on us like they could against Greece. The political ramifications are different too, as we aren't (thank god) part of the eurozone and so there isn't the same fear about people losing face when a so-called 'irreversible' currency union turns out to have been a stupid idea. You're absolutely right, though, that what has been happening in the eurozone for the last little while is what war now looks like in Europe, since we all agreed not to shoot at each other.

I still think the best way forward for the UK is continued participation in a greatly reformed Europe, that's been dialled back to just being a trading bloc rather than a would-be technocratic superstate. For those who want to achieve that, the best option is to vote No in the upcoming referendum.

If the Noes prevail, the UK government will have to go and re-negotiate the terms of Britain's changed relationship to the EU, and they will have to put it to the country in a second referendum. So if we don't want out in a disorderly way, but we do want a proper set of reforms rather than the pathetic set of 'demands' Cameron is currently waving around, then voting No in 2017 is absolutely what we have to do.

Math - Yanukovich was elected in 2010 on the back of promises to create a visa-free regime with Europe & negotiate an EU trade deal. This was a key plank of his success in the split regions.

Unsurprisingly, his voters were annoyed when he backtracked on this and drew them closer to Russia - as he was going against his campaign promises. He was in fairness trying to get a better oil & gas deal which Ukraine badly needed. But Ukrainians have long looked towards the EU as a way of forcing democratic & anti-corrupt change.

They were also pissed off because under Yanukovich, press freedom was curtailed and there were even more dodgy deals than under Timoshenko, which is really saying something considering how corrupt she was.

Yanukovich had even started losing support from his power base - I was back in Donetsk in 2011 and a lot of Donbassians were starting to look to Tigipko (I am not at all saying that everyone in Donetsk supported Western Ukrainian politicians, just that Yanukovich was losing support in a region that had backed him by a margin of 99-1 - mostly democratically). Visa Free regime with Europe was hugely popular across Ukraine not just in the west. In fact I remember I had a debate with some of my Ukrainian friends along the lines of "you're allowed 90 days of visa free travel in Ukraine, it's not fair!!!!".

The scene was set for a huge display of democratic force, and Yanukovich could have held it together had he not been so scared of Putin and ran off to Rostov-on-Don.

Donetsk held huge pro-Ukrainian demonstrations & a few pro-Russian ones too. The situation was OK...until Russian tanks started rolling in and Russian soldiers started posting selfies in Lenin square (Lenin square is just super - there was/is a McDonald's so you can both in shot).

As I've said before, I think Putin truly believed (as most Russians do) that Ukraine isn't a "real" country; and that Russian speaking Ukrainians would openly welcome Russian forces on the ground. I think he's been disillusioned of that and has little appetite for open war, just wants a constant low level conflict to deprive the new Ukrainian state of the industry of the East.

"If Greece had defaulted, either America or the BRICS would have loaned Greece money. The EU could not let that happen because it would have spelt the end of their dream. They had to bail Greece out and we have still not been told the details of the debt restructuring that will surely follow. They will tell us when it is a good day to bury bad news, when something else is on the front pages."

You've changed your tune - I thought the USA was forcing Germany to give Greece a bailout?! No sign of the USA handing over a giant wad of dosh either now or at any point in the process.

math - the bottom line is that the existing structures of EU and eurozone are incompatible with national sovereignty. Where the democratic will of one European people is incompatible with the will of the eurozone leaders, the will of the electorate is ignored. We've seen it again and again, in the referenda that were called again and again until the right answer returned, in the European Constitution that was roundly rejected by electorates EU-wide and then passed (with a conspicuous lack of plebiscites) as the Lisbon Treaty. And when Italy went a bit pear-shaped and the EU forced Berlusconi out in favour of an unelected technocrat, when the Greek government was brought down not long ago when it tried to put EU proposals to a referendum, and again in these last few days.

The sad thing is that the EU leaders have been behaving entirely rationally. Within the terms of the structures as they are, there's no way they could give the Greek people what they want. They had to overrule the democratic wishes of a nation, to preserve the wider system. The problem there isn't the democratic wishes of that nation (however quixotic the Greek popular will might seem to us) but the wider system that is so inimical to democratic influence by electorates.

I think as we've discussed before the problem is that the EU is ruled by democracies with different aims, desires.

Greece still has sovereignty - they could (should they wish to do so) leave the Eurozone or indeed the EU.

But staying withing a currency union must at some point demand closer political union, which is what is happening now.

Greeks are apparently 75% in favour of staying in the Eurozone - I imagine this new bailout will see if that desire stays through the painful process ahead of them.

The EU is not a perfect institution and is actually quite corrupt & wasteful. It need to be reformed.

But I want to stay in & will vote yes then try and push for reform from the inside out.

'You've changed your tune - I thought the USA was forcing Germany to give Greece a bailout?! No sign of the USA handing over a giant wad of dosh either now or at any point in the process.'

The US does it via the IMF. Christine Lagarde has changed her tough tune toards Greece ever since the US stepped in. The US prefers Germany to pay, but if not it has other options.

And Math - I think the answer is what the electorate wants in each country is so radically different it's difficult to reconcile. At the same time there is feeling of common unity (yet) that makes Germans happy to roll over and maintain Greece's standard of living. Nor is there harmony in the amount of tax collected by each EU country. Fostering a greater European sense of identity through Erasmus etc. should have been higher up on the European agenda - but less than 70 years is a very short time to build a new national consciousness based across such different nation states.

The EU brings member states substantial advantages even underneath the undemocratic flannel, so I don't think its time is up just yet.

Yet Greece is getting an exceptionally harsh bailout terms? I think you're wrong & the evidence proves it.

'Yet Greece is getting an exceptionally harsh bailout terms?'

That is all on paper. As VivienneMary and the German aide to Merkel said, you can't trust the Greeks. There is likely to be a Greek election in the autumn. God knows how well Golden Dawn will do. But the debt restructuring will be for real which is why they and the media have kept quiet about it.

Tsipras is playing their game, eating humble pie to save their faces. It's all on paper, but down the line, it won't hold.

Yes, he was indeed seeking to get a better gas deal. But to be scrupulously fair, the US hand-picked the prime minister who was put in place to run things when he had been forced out, and nobody except Russian speakers in the east was too bothered by the role of right wing militias in the coup. Apparently no room for manouver is allowed once you start a process of rapproachment with Berlin or at least that is the attitude of Berlin. No matter how much support Yanukovich seemed to be losing, he was at the time of the coup the democratically elected president of another state.

OTheHuge, I think there comes a point where leadership has to decide what its priority is and what it will respect most. Germany has clearly chosen money. Nobody joined the EU in full expectation that democratic elections and referenda would one day be simply ignored or overruled.

The French have said they could not accept any form of Grexit. Everybody knows that will be true in the future because it will end the Eurozone. So in the future, Greece can delay and renege on what they are being asked to fasttrack and there is noting the EU can do because they cannot face a Grexit.

Right wing militias were involved in Oxi, but that doesn't mean that the Greeks vote was undemocratic.

Right wing militias were very much in the minority, and actually Russian speakers in the East were tentatively pro-chucking out Yanukovich, as long as they got to vote on it (Russian invasion put paid to that!).

Running off to a foreign country and waging war on your own people are hardly the actions of someone who wants to remain a democratically elected politician. There are limits to what democratically elected politicians can do. Hopefully we would all protest if our police opened fire on civilians and then promised more of the same?

Lots of Tsipras's voters have now lost faith in him. Where will they go next? In don't think it will be back to the establishment parties.

right wing neo fascists is where they will turn

You keep muttering about debt relief claig.

either you're right and actually Germany are cuddly bunnies despite your hatred of them.

or your wrong and actually the recriminations, the lack of unity and the mean germany narrative are the truth.

Sanfairanne, claig - very harsh! Many Greek voters are not fascists & don't want to vote for a fascist party. Perhaps they will start a new party. Maybe The River will do a bit better.

Have you read today's Telegraph, Alyosha

"Far-Right group Pravy Sektor challenges Ukraine government after shootout

An armed standoff between government forces and the group entered its second day after a confrontation between Pravy Sektor and men loyal to a local MP critical of the group turned violent"

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11734520/Ukrainian-forces-surround-nationalist-militia-following-deadly-attack-in-western-Ukraine.html

Quite a few politicians and associates of Yanukovych have been murdered. It was a coup and Yanukovych felt his life was at risk.

There have been elections in Donbass that elected the separatists. Yanukovych is not waging war against anyone. Most of the refuggees from Donbass have gone to Russia, not Ukraine.

'either you're right and actually Germany are cuddly bunnies despite your hatred of them.'

I don't hate the Germans. Their political class are spinners just like your New Labour mates. We will be told the truth later down the line when they hope we have lost interest.

'Maybe The River will do a bit better.'

The River are establishment. TV stars and reporters paid for by the oligarchs. They won't win.

And Ukrainian forces are supporting the critical MP - what's your point? Every country has a bunch of unpleasant right wingers to deal with.

Haha OK so the fact that separatists intimidated and threatened anyone who went to the polls to vote for the Presidential & parliamentary elections is totally immaterial, instead we should trust ballots from a bunch of serbian bosnian killing nationalists and their Russian army mates.

right.

'Every country has a bunch of unpleasant right wingers to deal with.'

Yes but the Ukrainian lot were used to carry out the coup. Now they are challenging the puppet coup government.

'instead we should trust ballots from a bunch of serbian bosnian killing nationalists and their Russian army mates.'

I don't know where you get this from. If it was true, then why hasn't the Ukrainian army been able to beat them?

its nothing personal, just how it goes. humiliate a country, leave its people in abject poverty, watch people turn to extremists offering hope and a way out. they tried the left and got screwed over, now they will try the right.