Hello. Not contributed here before, but have followed the trial from the beginning so here's my shillings worth.....
I think the chances of OP escaping culpability are somewhere between slim and non existent at this stage. I can't even see him getting culpable homicide - his actions were not, by any stretch of the imagination, merely negligent....they were murderous. I think the State have demonstrated that very well.
IMO Nel is correct - evaluating circumstantial evidence means standing back and looking at the whole picture and seeing what emerges. It's always going to be possible to pick apart anything and find alternative explanations, no matter how improbable, and to continually do this means that you miss seeing the mosaic image as a whole.
Overall, putting it together, the circumstantial evidence against OP is extremely damning:
A woman hears a loud female voice coming from the vicinity of OP's house, an hour before a woman is shot there. Hearing a loud female voice at 2am is not a common event, neither is a neighbour getting shot. Coincidence that both unusual things happened within an hour of each other?
Reeva's stomach contents show that she was very, very probably awake at the time the neighbour heard the voice. Another coincidence?
(Worth remembering that no other woman has ever come forward to say it may have been her talking loudly).
A married couple are awoken by bangs and female screams, interspersed with a male voice. They are under the impression that there may have been a family murder because they clearly heard both a male and a female. It's this belief that there may have been a family murder and concern that children might be involved that prompts Dr Stipp to go and see if he can help.
Mistaking a male voice for a female one would be an unusual thing, although not totally impossible. Common sense tells us all that men and women do generally sound very different, and Lin confirmed that on the stand.
However, yet another coincidence has another couple a further distance away making the same unusual mistake. They also make the identical mistake of believing a couple are involved for the same reason....they hear a man and a woman at the same time.
In their case, it's the very fact that they heard both a man and a woman that has them coming forward at all. They didn't want to get involved and only came forward because the explanation given by OP at the bail hearing conflicted so massively with what they knew they'd heard. Incidentally, they had told colleagues and friends the next morning so really can't be accused of tailoring.
The biggest coincidence of all, though, is this:
They thought they heard gunshots and someone getting murdered. But they didn't hear that at all....if we believe OP.
Even though this had actually happened that night, none of them heard it. They all heard the after effects, which managed to sound exactly the same as the event (that they missed) 15 minutes earlier.
What they heard was the shooter screaming and bashing down a door. Not a woman, a man.....not gunshots but a cricket bat.
That there were gunshots earlier and that there was a woman who could conceivably have screamed is nothing but coincidence. None of them heard that.
Add to this a bedroom scene that looks nothing at all as it should have done if OP was telling the truth AND a clearly deceitful performance on the stand, then I think the picture of what happened that night emerges very clearly.
Reeva screamed and OP shot her. Four neighbours heard a terrified woman get shot. I believe them.
I know we can sit and pick apart piece of evidence by piece of evidence - yoga could have slowed down her digestion, Johnson's call time doesn't seem to fit, YouTube vids demonstrate a gun can sound like a bat, and vice versa - but overall, when you stand back and look at the evidence in it's entirety I think it's obvious what happened, and I would be most surprised if Milady doesn't too.
I reckon it will be eventualis, and he'll get 20 years plus.
Just my thoughts after listening to it all.
(Thanks for an interesting thread, all of you).