Sorry, I've been dipping in and out of the thread while we're on recess (partly because I kept getting carried away, and I thought it would be best to wait for actual evidence).
My opinion is the same as it was when we went on recess.
At the very least, he is guilty of culpable homicide simply because he did not get verbal confirmation of Reeva's whereabouts before he shot.
I think he is very likely to be guilty of Murder - Dolus Eventualis in that he knew, or he should have known, that by shooting into the door, somebody was going to die. The only way someone could have not died, is if the toilet was empty. He was responsible for that action and therefore that death.
Where I'm as yet unconvinced - did he know it was Reeva when he shot his first bullet?
My personal belief (conjecture warning) is that she screamed after the first shot.
If (conjecture warning) that is true, then he shot 3 bullets when he knew it was her.
My belief (again, conjecture) is that in the seconds immediately afterwards his brain then caught up with the rest of him, and he pieced together what had happened. This (yes, conjecture) is why Nel was so forceful in pushing his questions as to when it started to dawn on him that it might be her, and why he stopped looking for her so soon and whether he had the gun with him or not.
To my mind, this is possibly why his testimony is almost split - it's possible that it starts as truth 'I thought there was an intruder' but then goes immediately into cover up.
I cannot say whether there was a row, or whether he went trying to get her, or whether he was trying to frighten her. I don't believe these things have been proven in court yet. If the defence have no counters to the witnesses who heard a row, I'd be more inclined to believe them.
I am on the fence as to the ear witnesses, for the simple reason that witness testimony can be extremely unreliable, and I would imagine particularly at night and when you only have aural input. I don't think they're lying - just that brains can be spectacularly tricky, up to the point when they can insert entire memories that aren't real. When there's gunshot, screaming, sirens, it takes an incredibly steady person to think well enough through any panic to start taking mental notes of precisely what's going on. I linked in a different thread to a report on the De Menezes witnesses. Not liars by any stretch, but due to their panic, they remembered things that simply weren't there.
I'm not yet prepared to discount the witness testimony, but a lot will depend on who the defence bring in on this. Thus far, I have not been impressed by the defence witnesses.