Can we have a Ukraine/ Russia/ Crimea thread for dummies?

[chicaguapa]

In other words, could someone explain the situation in really simple terms please. I don't understand it but feel it's important and I should know what's going on.

And because DD(12) asked me this morning and I couldn't answer.

[Hopefulgoat]

Any bets how it will play out in Ukraine?

Will the Yats Government survive until the elections and be re-elected?

[mathanxiety]

My guess is that if Ukraine as a single political entity survives until the elections eastern Ukraine will vote for a pro Russian/Party of Regions candidate (maybe even Yanukovich if he returns) while in the west the right will make gains. No matter who wins, but especially if there is a major east/west divide in the results, the country will be pretty much ungovernable, given attitudes such as those of Tymoshenko, and the possibility of fracture will be high, with continuous calls for plebiscites along the lines of that in Crimea and possibly even street demonstrations throughout the summer and especially into the winter as cold and unlit reality dawns.

Or maybe Klitschko will have a stronger showing than the US wants or believes possible, and the ultimate winner will be Angela Merkel. And maybe a little sanity -- stability and even-keeled relations with Russia are very important for Germany. A strong showing by the Party of Regions would also mean more stability so perhaps this would be in Germany's interests too. I can't see Merkel rubbing her hands together at the prospect of Tymoshenko taking the reins in Ukraine.

The possibility of an internecine struggle between the Yatsites and the right is now on the cards for the period up to the election, and it could be very damaging for both though with the possibility of gain for the right, as supporters of the right tend to be galvanised by the experience of being marked by the authorities. They also must have had high hopes of meaningful participation in deciding the future of Ukraine when they participated in the mob action in Kiev, and there will be anger that their former friends have turned their knives on them.

[Hopefulgoat]

Yes, there will be an ugly struggle between different shades of the far right including Yatsites and Timoshenko. They will make a deal to split positions in the government. There is no credible candidate from the party of Regions, so the East probably will be totally disenfranchised. Even if some members from the East will be included in the government, overall it will be even more nationalistic and dysfunctional than now. The East will become ungovernable, especially with the winter and IMF reforms...

I don't see Klitschko gaining many votes. He got thrown eggs at both in Maidan and in Donetsk (or was it Kharkiv?).

With the continual descent in the East, Yats will use repressive force. The Governor in Donetsk apparently hired foreign mercenaries as secret police. That will go down well. When Yats will have to send in his new "Guard" full of Right Sector and Svoboda guerrillas, real violence will start. This may trigger the army to intervene and cause a state of emergency or a military coup.

The other thing to watch is electricity, gas and water supply to Crimea. Apparently Ukraine already tried to cut electricity supply by 50% the other day. What will happen if they cut gas or fresh water supply?

[claig]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26729273

Very interesting link, mathanxiety.
I think it shows that Russia and Ukraine are now talking which is a positive sign. I think we may see the Right Sector removed from government by the Ukrainian military in order to make the Ukrainian givernment more acceptable for Russia to deal openly with.

[mathanxiety]

I would imagine if water or gas supplies were cut then Russia could do the same with gas to Ukraine. It may be embarrassing for the US to be seen to support a government that would cut off water and electricity to people who engaged in a democratic process. Maybe not -- the USA has been particularly arrogant in its recent dealings with Ukraine (and Europe) and seems impossible to embarrass.

A commentary on Ukrainian tensions in Kharkiv. Subtlety does not seem to be the strong suit of the western Ukrainian right, or of Tymoshenko or of Yats and Co. Dobkin intends to run for president in May.

I would put (a little) money on the next political assassination victim being Dmitry Yarosh. Russia has a warrant out for him for incitement of uprisings in Chechnya, and he has been critical of the interim Ukrainian government. The Right Sector isn't going to just fade away though. They are always a threat on the streets.

Svoboda could come out with big gains -- though probably not enough to provide the next president, the right will have its agenda out there.

[DoctorTwo]

Which bit isn't true PigletJohn? The bit about Russia having historically having a deal to station 15000 troops in Crimea or the bit about the dead bloke? Both are easy to confirm as correct with a tiny amount of searching.

Or is it Iraq and Afghanistan? Neither of which were about oil at all, oh no. If the US had been serious about the 'war on terror' after the 11th of September they'd have invaded Saudi Arabia, not Afghanistan. They invaded because the Teletubbies refused Halliburton permission to put an oil pipeline across the country. Again, easily provable.

[PigletJohn]

You said "Russia hasn't invaded anyone"

You know that isn't true.

[DoctorTwo]

I may be being a bit hard of thinking here, but who have they invaded?

math, I agree about Yarosh. He's next, his views are completely at odds with the EU and NATO and neither will like that.

[PigletJohn]

(Yawn)

I see the Pro-Putin lobby is reverting to the "I see no invasion" ploy.

It is so ridiculous that there is no point in engaging with it.

[DoctorTwo]

So you try to gloss over hundreds of years of history? Oh dear. I bet you view the referendum as wrong too. How about Kosovo and South Sudan? Are they illegal too?

You'll be glad to hear I'll no longer be engaging with your far too obvious shilling, I shall just continue to post facts.

[PigletJohn]

You claim to be unable to see a military invasion.

In which case historical justifications for the invasion are irrelevant.

[mathanxiety]

'Ukraine agrees to 50% gas price hike amid IMF talks'

We're off to the races. On top of the gas proce hike, the currency is about to start freefalling. I anticipate Ukrainian life expectancy will begin to drop soon as older people whose pensions are about to become worthless will have to choose between heat or food. That problem will come to a crisis next winter.

When we say 'agrees' here we mean the sort of agreement that happens when a gun is put to a country's head.

[PigletJohn]

Or, perhaps, what a person will do to get away from the country which is holding a gun to their head

[mathanxiety]

'price' not proce...

[Hopefulgoat]

Or, perhaps, what a person will do to get away from the country which is holding a gun to their head

Do you mean this will solve the ethnic cleansing problem? Starving Russian-speakers will go to Russia as refugees?

[mathanxiety]

It seems to me that when a body such as the IMF dictates the agenda of a government (demanding specific reforms before it shows Ukraine the money) even when the reforms will mean real hardship for the population, then that government is not representing the people, and what we have is not a democracy. The government is in fact acting as the stooge of a lender, and a really dumb stooge at that, since the government assumes all the risk while the IMF is just playing with other people's money. In Ukraine what we have is a willfully dumb set of stooges who do not even seem to understand who calls teh shots in their own government. No matter what Obama says, Ukraine is not a democracy and will not be any time soon.

The revolutionaries (not necessarily the people in the streets but the people put in place by the US because they are the most biddable parties) may have bitten off more than they may be willing or able to chew in the long run. The cold, hard reality here is that Ukraine has been corrupt and virtually lawless for twenty years and now the poor are going to suffer the consequences of spineless political factions operating with power and loot as their ultimate objectives and not the welfare of ordinary people. I foresee much taking to the streets, burning tyres, etc., but it will be fruitless as long as foreign debt gets paid on schedule.

Ukraine is screwed.

“The expectation is that Ukraine will act in a market-friendly way.” ...

...“Ukraine should of course honor its debt no matter who is holding the bonds,” Lutz Roehmeyer, a money manager at Berlin-based LBB Invest overseeing $1.1 billion of emerging-market debt, including notes from Ukraine, said in an e-mailed response to questions. “I hope both countries will recognize they are mutually intertwined and dependent on each other.”

S&P 'Ukraine likely to default' -- BusinessInsider article penned before the overthrow of the constitutionally elected government by mob action in Kiev. Basically, Ukraine is in a situation where it is cheerfully mortgaging its future.

[PigletJohn]

It seems to me that when Ukraine is threatened with further military invasions by Russia, it finds itself in a very difficult position.

With repeated experience of invasion and occupation, and of being ruled by Russian stooges backed by the military power of Russia, they have the added problems of running out of money and energy when Russia turns off the taps or increases the price to exert its dominance.

The pro-Russian lobby on here is very dependable in spouting Russia's line.

[Hopefulgoat]

Ukraine fell in the same trap as Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria. US geopolitical games stirred sectarian and ethnic divisions and destabilised the imperfect society into civil war, terror and failed state. In case of Ukraine the US stirred Nazi worshiping russo-phobic nationalists in the country where 40% of population are ethnic Russians and every family has a personal experience of WWII and Nazi occupation...

[PigletJohn]

Your percentages are curious.

As you say, in Ukraine (and of course Afghanistsan) every family has experience of military invasion and occupation by Russian troops, and most are desperate to avoid it happening again. Those which were most thoroughly dominated are finding it most difficult to rebuild their nation.

The same can be said for the other Central and Eastern European nations which are now again under threat from Russia.

Which country do you think will be the next to experience a Russian military invasion?

[Hopefulgoat]

This is irresponsible propaganda waffle.

Brzezinsky created jihaddist movement long before the Russian invasion in Afganistan as part of his doctrine to destabilise USSR. The Russian invasion was the desired result of his doctrine, Afganistan was just a chessboard.
The Brzezinski doctrine zbigbrzezinski.livejournal.com/

Aside from USSR, Russia and US, this was a disaster for Afganistan. A stable secular society and a developing economy was plunged into decades of violence and failed state. The biggest loosers are the Afgan people. The biggest losers in Libia are Libians and so on.

The Afgans didn't enjoy US/UK invasion any more than they enjoyes soviet invasion. Different factions benefited. Now the US is withdrawing, Karzai is making signals they other way by welcoming Russian investment and saying soviet investment was efficient, and that the war on terror was not in Afganista's interests

There is something unethical in the policy that fosters civil war and leaves behind ruptured societies and failed states.

The BBC discussing the troubling similarities between USSR and US/UK wars in Afganistan. www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26483320

[PigletJohn]

Yes, what you are posting is indeed irresponsible propaganda waffle, suiting the Kremlin line.

[Hopefulgoat]

suiting the Kremlin line
this is a McCartist attack on freedom of speech. Compliance with the perceived desired 'line' and attack on alternative opinions is a feature of totalitarian fascist state, the very think you criticise the Kremlin for.

Leave the obsession with Kremlin to the Brzezinki studges.

We need an open and responsible debate about the future foreign policy in our country, not sleep walking into space arms race and nuclear stand off.

[DoctorTwo]

Ukraine would be best served by defaulting now, as opposed to allowing the IMF to dig their claws in. They will face international pressure, but they'll be better off in the long run.

Did you hear what Timoshenko wants to do to the 8 million Russians living in Ukraine? She wants to kill them all with nuclear weapons. A bit harsh in my opinion.

O'Bama wants to stop Russia exporting gas. Good luck with that. I can see deals being done between Russia and China for gas and oil, said deals won't be done in dollars. When that happens the petrodollar is dead, as others around the world see its irrelevance. Go long on gold, silver and Bitcoin and short on FIAT currencies.

[PigletJohn]

You say you are a McCarthist, goat?

You mean you would seek to have me silenced and blackisted to prevent me earning my living, because I express opinions or harbour beliefs different to your own?

I suppose I should count myself fortunate that you are not a Stalinist, as you might seek to have me Disappeared by your secret police, or stage a Show Trial so that I could be tortured into confessing that I was a traitor to your cause, or a spy in the pay of a foreign power.

Luckily however you are not in a position to do any of those things, and you will continue to fling around words such as "stooge" "puppet" and "nazi" to smear those with whom you disagree.

I have no doubt that you will continue to push your pro-Putin line, and to oppose me, because as far as I know you are not living under a regime which forbids and punishes dissent.

[Hopefulgoat]

prevent me earning my living,

Do you earn your living by posting russo-phobic slogans on this site?

words such as "stooge" "puppet" and "nazi"

I didn't call you that, your self identified to that at several occasions.

You are doing a good job of show-casing the culture of Ukrainian extreme right.