Can we have a Ukraine/ Russia/ Crimea thread for dummies?

[chicaguapa]

In other words, could someone explain the situation in really simple terms please. I don't understand it but feel it's important and I should know what's going on.

And because DD(12) asked me this morning and I couldn't answer.

I see from todays news that pro-Russian armed gangs have broken into official buildings in Eastern Ukraine and stolen weapons.

There is a suggestion that the events have been orchestrated.

Possibly enough unrest will occur for the thousands of Russian troops massed on Ukraine's eastern border to be given an excuse to invade.

The foreign exchange reserves have apparently fallen from $20bn on 1 January to about $15bn currently. The hryvnia has lost 30% of its value. The government meanwhile has banned seven Russian food producers from selling in Ukraine, and has defaulted on its gas bill to Russia.

The debt to GDP ratio is likely to be in the region of 50-60% (at least) by the end of the year. This means Russia will most likely exercise the option of selling (or dumping) its $3bn in Eurobonds per the agreement of late last year.

From the Moody's report:
However, in order to secure the IMF credit, the country of 46 million was forced to cancel fuel subsidies to private citizens and businesses, sparking a 50 percent hike in oil and natural gas bills.

Ukraine has also promised the IMF it will cut its budget deficit to 2.5 percent of GDP by 2016.

“The country is on the edge of economic and financial bankruptcy,” Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said in Kiev last week. “This package of laws is very unpopular, very difficult, very tough. Reforms that should have been done in the past 20 years.”

Yatsenyuk warned GDP could shrink by 3 percent in 2014, while inflation could hit up to 14 percent.

There is a good deal of arrogance in Yatseniuk's statement, and a frightening lack of any real appreciation of what unpopular, difficult and tough reforms will mean to ordinary people; also a lack of appreciation that the sort of package he thinks is needed can't be just imposed on the citizens of a democracy. I wonder if he understands how democracy works.

Given that he is a person who has arrived in a position of power through what Moodys euphemistically calls 'regime change', and lacks a popular mandate for any of the reforms he has agreed to as conditions of aid, he comes across as someone who doesn't seem to think he answers to the electorate. I do not think he is a respecter of democracy. A revolutionary through and through.

I was reading Reuters breaking news about Donetks declaring a republic and nearly spilled the tea all-over me when I stumbled on Yats quotation:

""I appeal to the people and the elites of the east ...We have our country. Let's keep it."

Poor guy is totally loosing it. He forgot he's not suppose to talk about serving the elites... What are the elites supposed to do, buy votes with hard cash?

even the tactful and softly spoken BRD has now been alarmed by Putin's expansionist policies.

The FT writes:

www.ft.com/cms/s/0/820b31f4-ab89-11e3-aad9-00144feab7de.html#ixzz2yDPKTzyF

yes, as goat's link says " Pro-Moscow protesters in eastern Ukraine seized arms in one city and declared a separatist republic in another, in moves Kiev described on Monday as part of a Russian-orchestrated plan to justify an invasion to dismember the country." but I did not spill my tea.

There is a suggestion that the events have been orchestrated.

Possibly enough unrest will occur for the thousands of Russian troops massed on Ukraine's eastern border to be given an excuse to invade.

That what happens when the government lacks legitimacy and antagonizes significant part of population based on the ethnic principle. It relies on 'elites' which is a euphemism for Mr Taruta, the oligarch who controls the party of regions, whom they appointed Governor, and who hired private security company to act as security and police for him, because the legitimate state security people wouldn't act for him.
A total mess.

The FT article is from March 14. Everybody talked tough then.

But, yes, Germany wants to take control of EU policy on this crisis. They even offered to send some planes or troops to Poland, to avoid American boots there.

It is astonishing how Yatseniuk fails to see anything amiss with the spectacle of power wrested from the hands of a legitimately elected government by means of an aggressive and determined takeover of Kiev by mobs in the streets, or the open incitement of civil strife in his appeal 'the people and the elites of the east'. If that isn't an open invitation to Svoboda and Right Sector to flex their muscles I don't know what is.

I wonder who he means when he says 'we'.

It seems to me that one element that distinguishes the political action in Kiev from that in Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv is the emphasis those in the east place on referenda and settling matters by means of a democratic process whereas those in Kiev seem to favour 'regime change' by imposition of the will of a small minority, and subsequent rule by fiat (by definition, since the government is not an elected one).

I think the statement by Yatseniuk has proven that the activists in the eastern cities are correct in their assessment of how little the east is willing to address their concerns in the wake of remarks and demonstrations such as right wing nationalist displays of aggression and the shrill triumphalism of Tymoshenko. Apparently anti terrorist methods are in the offing against citizens who have done something quite similar to what citizens did in Kiev. Apparently it is now completely unacceptable to hold an opinion on the future of Ukraine that does not agree with those of the Kiev government.

The accusations that Moscow is behind the unrest are ironic considering the fact that Yatseniuk was hand picked by Washington to succeed Yanukovich in the wake of the Maidan, and also in the wake of Tymoshenko's statement on wiping out 8 million people whom the government insists are citizens of Ukraine by means of a nuclear attack.

This is an illustration of why revolutions are never a good idea. It is all following a sadly predictable script.

"It is an attempt to destroy Ukrainian statehood, a script which has been written in the Russian Federation, the aim of which is to divide and destroy Ukraine and turn part of Ukraine into a slave territory under the dictatorship of Russia," Yatseniuk said of what called the Russian plan.

This is unstatesmanlike and grossly intemperate language, and should be a huge embarrassment to Washington in the circumstances. It is language the EU abhors.

Actually, in the wake of Tymoshenko's statement, the Kiev government's accusation is not ironic. It is delusional.

It is astonishing how the pro-Putin lobby fails to see anything amiss with the spectacle of power seized by means of an aggressive and determined takeover of Western Ukraine cities by armed mobs in the streets, or the open incitement of civil strife encouraged by a foreign power.

Bit of a Freudian slip there PigletJohn?

Thank goodness that so far, the pro-Russian gangs are not having much success outside Eastern Ukraine cities, and of course Crimea.

I can see that it is important for them to seize whatever they can quivkly, before new Ukrainian elections are held.

It is very worrying tbat they have broken into an armoury and stolen weapons. They may have moved beyond the ability of local police to arrest and disarm them.

This thread is like a word association game.

(Posters) 'Ukraine'
(PigletJohn) 'Russian invasion'
(Posters) 'Kiev'
(PJ) 'Russian invasion'
(Posters) 'economy'
(PJ) 'Russian invasion'
(Posters) 'IMF'
(PJ) 'Russian invasion'
(Posters) 'referendum'
(PJ) 'Russian invasion'

Making up your own outrageous facts is trolling, PigletJohn.

(goat) Nazis
(PJ) Soviets too
(goat) Hitler
(PJ) Stalin too
(goat) Ukrainian war crimes
(pj) Soviets too
(math) invasions and occupations
(pj) by Soviets
(math) no, they were to advance on Berlin
(PJ) no, they were before and after, WW2

You don't need to blame Putin to see what an incompetent idiot Yatsenyuk is. He made a fool of himself on 'Hard talk', despite Stephen Sackur trying to help him. He just postures instead of dealing with realities, taking hard decisions, reaching out and reconciling the East and West of his country. Instead he antagonizes East Ukraine even more and grandstands in the media. He is expecting the West will sort everything out for him while he just needs to appear in the media and sign documents. He does look like a puppet without any support.

But you do need to blame Putin (and of course his predecessors) for invading, occupying and annexing smaller, weaker neighbours.

Speaking of violent gangs in Kiev today, the Right Sector activists tried to storm Kiev’s Supreme Court.
Apparently they disrupted the convention of judges. "A few judges, who were in the building before the attack, were led out by the activists shouting “Lustration!” as you can see in the video.

He is clearly angling for western military intervention on top of western payment of Ukraine's bills. His approach to eastern Ukraine is guaranteed to further inflame matters, which will not be good news in Berlin or New York. Stability is what western money expects the Kiev government to deliver and so far I suspect Yatseniuk has been a disappointment. Tymoshenko not so much as she has a record in office and a long public career behind her. It is possible that more attention is being given to the federal proposal in Berlin than in Kiev. How Ukraine expects to be able to pay for gas resold to her by Germany and other western states when loans from the EU and IMF are the only financial props Ukraine has is open to speculation.

That lustration charge against the judges is a clear indication of Right Sector's philosophy 'If you're not with us you're against us' and by definition 'against us' means a Communist/Russian/Bolshevik/Jew -- these terms are fungible for Right Sector. The Right seems to be proceeding on the basis that it is time to settle scores.

Concerning take-over by violent mobs of cities in West Ukraine, this video is schocking in how casually very young people in Lviv posessed with neo Nazi ideas are attacking a random passer-by (at 40 seconds)

'against us' means a Communist/Russian/Bolshevik/Jew These are just pretences.

There are allegations that armed mobs of the Right Sector are racketeering and taking over small businesses like shops and restaurants threatening with guns and then given "amnesty" by police for their 'merits before the maidan revolution'....

You could argue, the Right Sector with its red-black flag espouses the ideas of communist anarchist Mahno, who was 'expropriating' property during the civil war 1918-1920? Mahkno was riding under the black flag and the red flag of the Bolsheviks.

Young Ukrainians are so abused and brainwashed by Brzezinski Russo-phobic propaganda after the independence, that they don't even know the origins of their ideology. Ideas they proclaim about expropriating property from corrupt politicians is comming from the communist Makno, while the Russo-phobia from the Nazi SS Galicia and the Bandera who killed 100ds of thousands of Jews, Poles, Russians, and Ukrainians during the Nazi occupation.

One symbol they are spray painting at 0:12--0:25 is a white power symbol. They are defacing a branch of Sperbank, a Russian bank. A White power flag appears at at 2:02 and 3:02. This is a symbol and flag that belongs to neo-Nazis in Europe and the US.

At 2:10 they wear hard hats in anticipation of some clash ahead. A show of force ensues at 2:23.

They do not attack or harass the cameraman at any point in this episode so we may conclude that it was meant to be filmed and broadcast. Hence the inclusion of the incidents at 0:40 and 3:45 where they destroy the jacket of the passer-by (their victim represents young men who are not involved with their gang) and show their contempt for the police officers (who represent the rule of law). The choice of Sperbank indicates their hatred for Russia. It ends with jollity in a night time scene.

It is all very casual and triumphal, a piece designed to intimidate by implying ownership of the streets and the impotence of whatever forces stand in their way.

It's highly likely that while they do not fully understand what they are for or the exact origin of their ideas, they are very sure of what they are against. For operational purposes, understanding where your ideas come from may be beside the point as the net effect is that thuggery rules and decent citizens are frightened. What you are against is much more motivational when it comes to the agenda and the actions of the Right. The best motivator, the cause most likely to draw support to the cause, will be used.

Yes. Ethnic hatred.

A interesting programme about the corruption and crimes of Ukraine's previous president. There's no doubt he needed to be thrown out, let's hope the people of Ukraine can be allowed the opportunity to elect better politicians in future.