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Russia has invaded Ukraine

384 replies

ohmymimi · 28/02/2014 18:38

Not a shot fired. Putin outwits the West and who/what will stop him getting his way?

OP posts:
claig · 06/03/2014 14:40

Yes, I must get Sebag-Montefiore's book. He does a good job of explaining it all.

Absy · 06/03/2014 14:44

It's long, but he's a good writer and the material is so interesting, you don't suffer through it. For the thing on Polina talking to Golda Meyer, Golda also mentions it in her autobiography.

PigletJohn · 06/03/2014 15:15

Claig, I notice that when you're trying to gloss over Russia's long and shameful history of antisemitism, you say it was the communists, or the soviets, or Imperial Russia. Like you did with the Ukrainian genocide, and no doubt you would with the extermination of a generation of educated Poles, and like you did with the alliance with Nazi Germany.

Yet when you think you have something positive to say, you tell us that the Russians fought fascists.

Do you have an equally flexible and forgiving attitude to successful Soviet Russian Communists, like ex-KGB man Putin?

claig · 06/03/2014 15:34

I don't accuse all Russians of being anti-semitic. I believe it was certain individuals and certain politicians. Lazar Kaganovich was Jewish and was appointed by Stalin as Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party from 1928-1939.

The Nazis were antisemitic, but I don't believe that all the Russian communists were.

'Do you have an equally flexible and forgiving attitude to successful Soviet Russian Communists, like ex-KGB man Putin?'

I don't think there is any equivalence between ex-KGB Putin and antisemites or far-right fouinders of the Svoboda Party or leaders of the Right Sector, whatever the hawks say.

mathanxiety · 06/03/2014 16:06

I do not think Stalin or Russian Communists in general had an issue with Jews (politically speaking) unless they were practicing Jews. The political issue was belief in God and practice of religion, and he took direct aim at all religion (until the exigencies of WW2 led to a partial rehabilitation of the Russian Orthodox Church because it was useful as a nationalist symbol. Along with this partial rehab came a return to the old Imperial symbolism in the armed forces -- reinstatement of formal military ranks and decorations).

Any instances of Jewish or other citizens of the USSR expressing any identity other than that of 'Soviet proletarian citizen' were suppressed 'nationalist' sentiment wherever it occurred was stamped out, as was religious affiliation (except for adherence to the Russian Orthodox Church, which was partially tolerated from the 1940s on). All sorts of labels were used to accuse any 'nationalists', which included Jews who expressed any Zionist or religious sentiment bourgeois, intellectual, cosmopolitan, agents of American imperialism..

Singling out of groups for ostracisation from proletarian society was the way Stalin operated against all his targets.
Targeting certain groups was how he kept the USSR in a state of constant terror and maintained his own power.
He did not necessarily believe one word of what he said about those groups. Their usefulness to him lay in the fact that they could be singled out and made an example of.

Stalin was not 'anti-semitic even at the time of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact' -- it was the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact that inspired a display of anti-Semitism at that time as a gesture of solidarity and friendship with Nazi Germany. Stalin was willing to throw anyone under the bus for political gain.

claig · 06/03/2014 16:11

Yes, Stalin had no scruples and very few core beliefs apart from remaining in power it seems, but I will have to read Sebag-Montefiore to find out more about him.

PigletJohn · 06/03/2014 16:22

and yet, Stalin aside, Russia does have a long history of anti-Semitism

claig · 06/03/2014 16:24

I agree. There were the pogroms etc. But, as far as I am aware, the current leadership is not antisemitic.

mathanxiety · 06/03/2014 16:26

PigletJohn, Anti-Semitism was alive and kicking all over the world for hundreds (if not thousands) of years, and not just in Imperial or Soviet Russia. It existed on a casual level everywhere and it took the form of violence even in places like Limerick in Ireland.

Baltic anti-Semitism was successfully exploited by the Nazis to inspire co-operation with Nazi genocide in the Baltic states - there Jews were hit with the double whammy of being pro-Soviet on top of being Jewish. 95% of Latvia's Jews were murdered within 9 months of the Nazi takeover, many at the hands of Latvian neighbours in village massacres.

Even a casual glance through older editions of Agatha Christie mysteries reveals phrases like 'unfortunate ancestry' and other derogatory references to Jews and Judaism.

There is probably no country in the world that can claim a clean record when it comes to anti-Semitism.

PigletJohn · 06/03/2014 16:27

I'm sure the leadership has to be careful what they say in public.

But I doubt that general attitudes have changed.

mathanxiety · 06/03/2014 17:12

I do not think general attitudes towards Jews have changed anywhere deep down, despite the Holocaust.

The Ukrainian Genocide of the 1930s mirrored man-made famine in the Russian Soviet Socialist Republic in the course of collectivisation, where an estimated 12 million people perished, with millions more sent to labour camps.

beaglesaresweet · 06/03/2014 21:14

But the new Ukrainian PM (interim but he is very likely to stay on as he's seen as educated and intelligent) is Jewish (ethnically, i've no idea if he is religious)! He's coming across well despite being inexperienced, good English and a good sense of humour! definetely a euro type unlike all the previous pm's and presidents.

the right wing will never be elected to be in the new govt (May elections in Ukraine) by the people, yes a few representatives but it will be fewer than in the interim govt.

beaglesaresweet · 06/03/2014 21:23

ha, the general attitudes in Russia have changed to an extent (re anti-semitism), but most Rus oligarchs - Abramovich obviously for one - are Jewish, so yes the people kind of associate then with clever thieves. On the other hand in the artistic and cultural history of Russia there are many notable and much-loved Jews, so it's not all one way. Generally the more progressive younger generation has much fewer anti-semitists in their midst than the old Soviet closed-minded sector of population.

There were always very many Jews in Kiev, some distinguished.

claig · 06/03/2014 21:23

beaglesaresweet, you are right. Most of the government are not antisemitic or racist. There is only a small faction that is far right, and although the far right was used to take on the police force and overthrow Yanukovych, they will not be able to push through any racist policies because the US and EU are the ones who will have to rescue the Ukrainian economy and they will not allow that.

But, the fact that one of the founders of Svoboda has been placed in charge of defence and the armed forces and that his deputy is the leader of the Right Sector, is, I think, significant for what may be to come in terms of conflict with Russia.

mathanxiety · 06/03/2014 21:25

Coming across well in European and US media is a different kettle of fish from having an appeal for Ukrainian voters.

I think once the right wing has had a taste of the effectiveness of taking to the streets it doesn't matter whether it gets elected or not. If not elected it still remains in the background and thinks it is a force that must be listened to.

claig · 06/03/2014 21:27

There is an interview online with Yarosh who is leader of the Right Sector. He explains that he has no time for the politicians. But, in reality, he is dealing with a much more powerful force i.e. US/EU/Nato and therefore I think he will be reined in and will have to do as he is told.

beaglesaresweet · 06/03/2014 21:30

I wish they haven't kept saying 'Crimea was always Russian' on TV. It was a Tatar country. Stalin (again) shipped them out in big nimbers to Uzbeck republic. Before that yes, the Tzars were in presence in Crimea, but at that time it was mainly populated by tartars. So really it's artificially russian (or rather Soviet - many pro russians in Crimea as you can see on news are also pro-soviet still, with waving of the red flags. Not sure what the young people think there but I bet they are not that keen to join russia).
If they stayed in Ukraine now, they'd still retain their 'autonomous republic' status as before. I think the hurried referendum is for that reason - so they don't get a chsance to see what the new Ukr offers them (good reasonable conditions), but just jump off while the (russia's) iron is hot.

mathanxiety · 06/03/2014 21:32

There are plenty of other right wing parties in Europe to align with and become a force in the EU. There is no way the right wing will just roll over and be civilised. They want power.

beaglesaresweet · 06/03/2014 21:33

exactly, claig, the right extremes will be reigned in now as they have a choice between behaving themselves and provoking Russia into military action with end result that they will not get Ukraine (or any part in govt, whereas at least if they behave they can have a represantative). The vast majority of people don't like these groups so really they are having their moment but they will not be accepted as leaders.

beaglesaresweet · 06/03/2014 21:35

of and of course I also meant that if they don' t behave, US/UN's help will not be forthcoming (yes, even though they may have helped with the coup - but they can't be supporting thugs or radicals to run the government, for all to see!)

mathanxiety · 06/03/2014 21:40

Well right now, 95% of the population is ethnically Russian no matter how that came about. That is the reality. Populations can't just be packed up and shipped elsewhere any more.

Look at Northern Ireland -- Scottish immigrants and English planters constitute the majority in six counties of the island of Ireland, which was traditionally always governed as a single entity. The six county NI was the largest unit of administration that guaranteed a Unionist majority plus some hope of economic success back when partition of Ireland was envisioned in the 1920s. When partition happened, protestants in the Free State moved either to the North or to Britain, and many Catholics moved south. But the shipping away of hundreds of thousands of people who weren't Irish all the way back 1000 years was never on.

claig · 06/03/2014 21:41

beaglesaresweet, people like Yarosh are not really interested in government. He describes himself as a revolutionary. I am surprised he was given a role at all, and especially as a deputy to the minister in charge of defence. But he will have to do as he is told because of US/EU/NATO.

The government has to be seen as good Europeans or it will embarrass EU/US/NATO and give Putin an open goal. So the far right will be controlled and reined in.

beaglesaresweet · 06/03/2014 21:43

mathanxiety, Yatseniuk does have appeal - he's not new on the scene at all! he was always considered by the people as a new member of govt, along with a couple of others, for a few yrs now. NOw when they see how he presents abroad will also matter. Yes he's a bit of a pawn now and can't dictate to anyone, but I think even Russians can see that he is the person they could have negotiations with rather than anyone else atm. His image is good, hardly a thug or a fascist.
So far Russian are being disrespectful and not wanting to talk to him - well they will have to, and they reluctantly will, whereas no way they'd be talking to Svoboda's guys.

claig · 06/03/2014 21:53

I am not sure the high level Russians will talk to him. Putin has said it is an illegitimate government, and there will be a referendum on Crimea's status on Mar 16, which Yatseniuk says is illegitimate.

What happens if Crimea decides to join Russia? What will the West do? The Ukrainians may fight. If so, will the West join in? I doubt it.

This is another test for the EU. Over Kosovo, the US had to step in because the EU was not capable of sorting it out. The EU has elections in May and populist parties who are anti the EU and anti expansion and anti empires and superstates are likely to do even better than before if the EU risks escalation with Russia. The bureaucrats and politicians will have to make the EU pass this test, but it will be difficult.

mathanxiety · 06/03/2014 21:53

The US installed Pinochet in Chile barefacedly despite the election of Allende in a democratic process.
They accepted the Yushchenko government decision to honour Bandera and stood idly by as Lithuania exhumed the body of Juozas Ambrazevicius from his grave in the US to rebury him in Kaunas, and honour 'anti-Soviet heroes' such as the Lithuanian Activist Front. Getting Lithuania (and other Baltic states) onside in NATO was far more important than being seen to distance themselves from the anti-Semitic right.
They encouraged the rise to the top of military establishments all over South America of known former Nazis.

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