Russia has invaded Ukraine

[ohmymimi]

Not a shot fired. Putin outwits the West and who/what will stop him getting his way?

They don't have to talk. All they have to do is cut off the oil and gas. They could talk of course, but everyone knows what the bottom line is. Pensioners and ordinary people who have no influence know how cold it gets. They will want to know if they are going to have their flats heated. This is the question every Ukrainian politician has to answer eventually.

In fact, I think we are possibly beginning to see the end of expansion, the end of empire and the breakup of unity of the EU. France has a 1 billion contract for warships with Russia, London makes approx 2 billion from Russian hot money and Germany has $22 billion of investments in Russia. I am not sure if all of the countries are as hawkish as the US and if they will all hold firm. We may be witnessing the beginnings of a rapprochement between Germany and Russia.

Good points, mathanxiety. They do what suits their interests. They back Saudi Arabia even though it discriminates against women and has some barbaric punishments.

The far right will be given sop after sop in order to keep it off the streets. That is why Yarosh got the job he got.

The right doesn't have to do anything or ingratiate itself with anyone. It doesn't owe any favours to any politician in Ukraine. If it misses this moment to seize as much power and influence as it can, it may never get another opportunity.

Germany and Russia already live very much in each others' pockets.

I think Putin will probably get the Crimea. he then will either face a conflict with Ukraine or he will bide his time and put pressure on Ukraine with gas and economics while supporting a political candidate that suits him. Eventually he will probably regain influence over the parts that he wants.

'Germany and Russia already live very much in each others' pockets.'

Yes. I think the US influence over Europe may be weakening. That is of course a dangerous thing.

mathanxiety Thu 06-Mar-14 21:40:03
Well right now, 95% of the population is ethnically Russian

58% in the 2001 census, I think you'll find.

I don't think Ukrainians will fight if Crimea goes. But they will fight if the taleover threatens Ukraine per se.

The EU will make Putin talk to Ukrainian govt as Putin has to compromise somewhere or face tough US sanctions. But where these ytalks would lead, that's another matter. For Putin it's humiliating to talk to 'revolutionaries' as this would mean accepting their status, bt he can't risk an outright cold war with the west over this, it would also make himn extremely unpopular with a more progressive and younger Russians. I'm sure that he is still thinking which way to take in these talks - it's a tough job for him.

*a takeover

yes def not 95%! 40 % are Ukrainians and Tartars (12% tartars)

Whoops!
58% Russian, 24% Ukrainian

77% of Crimean residents named Russian as their first language
11.4% Tatar
10.1 Ukrainian

The Yanukovich Party of Regions took the overwhelming majority of seats in all recent national Ukrainian elections, and in the Crimean parliament (local) elections.

The proverbial is about to hit the fan.

Tbh many people would prefer to join russia because pensions ar much higher there, not everyone is politically motivated. Ukrainians in Crimea ar not all big patriots, so they may well vote along with the russians, as many people think al lpoitics in that region aer cynical and wouldn't reflect hugely on their lives (apart from better pensions).
Btw Crimeans wre not opressed in any way regarding not using Ukrainian language or whatever, it was always a peninsula with certain autonomy.
Russia quite happily signed an agreement that Crimea stays in Ukraine when Ukraine separated in 1992 as far the lease was there for their Navy, so Crimean people should be resentful of that, shouldn't they? but no, suddenly when Cromea literally fallen into Russia's lap (shock to Putin I'm sure how it all happened), they are all smiles .

The US can't impose sanctions that would be meaningful against Russia. It does not have a significant trading relationship with Russia. The EU is already showing itself unwilling to impose sanctions against Russia. Putin doesn't have to talk to anyone and the risk of outright cold was is small because of EU dependence on Russian oil and gas, especially German dependence. Although I am sure he will accept a cheque for $1.4 billion that is owed by Ukraine for gas and oil no matter who signs it.

this is possibly also true:

The number of Crimean residents who consider Ukraine their motherland increased sharply from 32% to 71.3% from 2008 through 2011; according to a poll by Razumkov Center in March 2011,[84] although this is the lowest number in all Ukraine (93% on average across the country). Surveys of regional identities in Ukraine have shown that around 30% of Crimean residents claim to have retained a self-identified "Soviet identity".

in Kiev at least 70% spoke Russian as their everyday language, but they aer still Euro minded now (and for a while) rather than wanting to be with Putin/Russia. You can say that Scottish people speak English - so what? they speak with their accent same as Kievites speak with their own accent as opposed to Moscow etc. What I mean is 'Russian as forst language' doesn't make a person living in that whole area pro-Russia or ethnically russian.

I wonder what a 'Soviet identity' is.

Scottish people are going to vote on independence soon.

It is puzzling to see the statements of EU and US leaders regarding the constitutionality of the Crimean decision to vote on joining Russia. The same EU and US leaders have recognised a regime that sprang into existence in total disregard for the law and constitution of Ukraine, basically because a really tiny group of people took to the streets in Kiev and a few other cities. There is a lot of grandstanding going on. Meanwhile I am sure Russia is waiting to see who gets stuck with the gas and oil bill and what the price will be for Ukraine.

I suppose on Soviet identity - if you think about it, for 7 decades (so a lifetime), national and ethnic identities were suppressed (very forcefully so), and replaced with a "Soviet" identity. That doesn't disappear overnight. A lot of this is anecdotal, but for e.g. I have worked in the past with Kazakhs, who are traditionally Muslim, but many have no issues with drinking alchohol etc., and would identity more closely with Russians than say Saudis. In a way I think it's similar to the "recognition" that you still have between the UK and its former colonies, and France and its former colonies.

re 30% 'Soviet identity' group - have you seen the pro-russian celebrations on various news channels? These are mostly (if not all) people 55-60+ and dancing to old Soviet time cheesy songs but also some of them waving red USSR flags, these are the old generation nostalgic for the USSR and feeling displaced in the modern world. I sympathise but they are quite dangerous if the decisions about the future rests with them!

This older generation of course exist in large numbers in Russia and central Ukraine too but possibly the population in Crimea is generally older than elsewhere as I imagine the young tend to go for jobs in Kiev/russia/some to europe via poland. Then they did show a couple of young mothers who came up to these Soviet nostalgics and said that they disagreed - and they were chased away and tried not to let cameras to record this. Also couple of young Tartars saying they don't want to go under the dictatorial Russia.
This is all wrong! surely the younger people should decide first of all. They never eve lived during the USSR (or were children and seen the horrible process of decaying soviet state) and there is this huge gap between the generations in their ideas. But the absence of big numbers of the young makes the referendum biased.

'and the older russians tried not to let cameras..'

If they have the right to vote then they have a right to a say in the future. It is their future too.

I think it's not quite right that the future of Ukraine was apparently recently decided by mobs in the streets. 'Future of Ukraine' meaning in the short term as well as long term -- in the short term the mobs may have condemned millions of old people to poverty and inability to heat their homes. In the long term there will be a huge amount of debt to repay.

I think a strong element in the formation of Soviet identity may be recollection of the Great Patriotic War. Obviously this is not something shared by parties who honoured Bandera.

"Mobs on the streets"

Like October 1917?

Or possibly like December 1773.

Or July 1789.