Russia has invaded Ukraine

[ohmymimi]

Not a shot fired. Putin outwits the West and who/what will stop him getting his way?

Sky has just said that Ukraine has 130,000 troops and is no match for Russia. But there would be lots of resistance etc.

FWIW (and it's a few years now since I studied this / lived there), you could see Eastern Ukraine as being a bit like the North of England and Western Ukraine as being more like the South of England (this is generalising wildly, but I think it helps).

The East is more traditionally heavy industry in the style of Liverpool, Manchester, Birmingham etc, tends to hark back to the good old days of the USSR, and is generally Russian speaking. The West is somewhat more economically diversified (e.g. Odessa and Lviv see a lot of tourism), less industrial, and is more Ukrainian speaking. The West tends to look towards Europe, partly because somr of it used to be Poland.

The Crimea is of importance for its military strategic value - it was a closed area until about 1995, IIRC, and not exactly keen on foreigners after that. I remember quite clearly being chucked out and told to get back on the train to Odessa promptly, which is annoying because it is also spectacular countryside and history.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Official_Russian_language_support_in_Ukraine.PNG

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ukraine_cencus_2001_Russian.svg
Both from:
Language and controversy in Ukraine.

Demographics

Very interesting links, mathanxiety, thanks.

I didn't realise that there are not that many Tatars, about 250,000.
It seems there are about 8 million Russians and 37 million Ukrainians.

'The newly appointed head of Ukraine's navy has sworn allegiance to the Crimea region, in the presence of its unrecognised pro-Russian leader.

Rear Admiral Denys Berezovsky was only made head of the navy on Saturday, as the government in Kiev reacted to the threat of Russian invasion.'

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26410431

Am quite worried about it too! Have a very bad feeling bout it all as I think Putin is gearing up for a fight and determined to put those who he sees as having shunned him to shame. It would be truly terrifying if china gets involved too. It's not going to end well!

Mark Field was very interesting on today's 'Sunday Politics' - worth a look on BBC iPlayer if you missed it.

Out of these 130 000 troops how many are of Russian origin?
there's no way they will fight.
Putin knows that.

I don't know how many are of Russian origin. But Sky also reported that Ukraine has called up reservists, so that will add to the 130,000 regular troops

at a guess, about 1 in 5 will be of Russian antecedents, assuming conscription and a reflection of the population as a whole.

There may be a variation if people who see themselves as "Russian" are less or more willing to serve in Ukranian forces.

I would assume the number is higher.
Especially in the higher ranks.

It's definitely something Putin's counting on.

China has no interest whatsoever. Nobody is going to fight. I suspect many of the Ukrainian forces are in the same boat as the Rear Admiral. I also think Russia will only occupy the Crimea and those areas unquestionably Russian in allegiance and language and places where Russia has a lot of investment or parts of Ukraine where gas could be rerouted to avoid the pipelines through west of Ukraine (through Crimea) and go by sea instead.

It's a bit difficult to say that people are of Russian or of Ukrainian origin, I would say - when I lived there, it was certainly much less clear cut than some of the news stories seem to be making it out to be. I had two friends, for example, a brother and a sister, where the sister would only speak Ukrainian and the brother would only speak Russian.

Ukraine as a country is a relatively modern invention, and a lot of people were still very sensitive about it in the late 1990s.

An interesting German article written before the crisis.

The author fails to realise that in the Georgian affair, Russian was content to divide Georgia.

My sister was working in Sevastopol for a few weeks last year, I'll have to find out if she's still in touch with anyone. It chills me how somewhere so normal could be a war zone in the near future.

[http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/1z9pkm/iama_ukrainian_protester_of_euromaidan_our/ this Reddit thread] is more informative than anything as it's from the horses mouth. A Ukraine resident and protester says they are invaded.

www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/1z9pkm/iama_ukrainian_protester_of_euromaidan_our/

clicky!

I do not understand how putting a country in hock to another to the tune of $10bn does not constitute an attack on its sovereignty. Is Greece a sovereign state?

'There are two popular opinions in Ukraine: 1. To make up money for the olympics, Putin is currently destroying the tourist season for Ukraine's biggest black sea resort zone. Sochi will get aaalllll the tourists. 2. Putin is not here for territory, Putin is here to provoke a civil war that will weaken Ukraine to the extreme point when it no longer can break off from Russia's sphere of influence. Instead, Ukrainians are coming together like never before.'

The blogger is not a very intelligent commentator.

Im worried this could lead to a world war as techniqually Russia has invaded a EU country. Im suprised noone else is worried! Anyone remeber what happened when Germany invaded Poland?

does eveybody in ukraine not want russia?
i heard the russians are protecting the russians in crimea and ukraine? but watching the news last night some people seemed to be tearing down ukraine flag in favour of russian

Ukraine isn't an EU member (or candidate), nor a NATO member (though there is a non-binding statement of support).

The thread title, when posted a few days ago, looked a bit hysterical and OTT. But it seems to be happening now.

lucy

there are parts of Ukraine which have a majority Russian population, and these are the pro-Russian areas which may want to secede from the Ukraine.

Most of Ukraine does not, and these are the not-pro-Russian areas.

I don't think there will be a third world war. Not over this. However, Russia will be marginalised now and we are going back to a sort of Cold War.

The revolution in Ukraine has weakened Russia and forced it into acting to protect its interests, and this will lead to the exclusion of Russia, which is not something that Russia wanted. The West obviously wants Putin out. They will put an economic squeeze on Russia and hope that a Russian opposition will topple Putin, just like an opposition toppled the Ukrainian President. I don't think it will work because Putin is a nationalist leader and nationalism unites people more than things like Pussy Riot and billionaire funded "charities" and human rights organisations which are used to try and weaken Russia and create opposition to Putin.

I think the revolution was funded and planned and I think the neo-nazis will probably be aided to create trouble for Russia and Muslim terrorists will possibly be set on Russia in order to tie Russia down. I think that all of this will probably distract Russia from what is happening in Syria and that the Jihadis and mercenaries over there will benefit from that.

I agree with Dominic Lawson in the Mail that Russia has been a loser in all of this, and I think that is exactly what the planners had intended.
I think the next part of the plan is to try and topple him through an economic squeeze. I am not sure if that will work. It depends how popular he is in Russia and whether demonstrations will be able to topple him.

' But what is clear is that this has been a desperate defeat for the Russian President.

It is no gain for him to retain the use of Sevastopol — that had always been a given. The bigger picture is that the government in Kiev is, and will be for some time, hostile to Moscow.

Putin’s hopes of tying all Ukraine into a greater Russia — the so-called Eurasian Customs Union — have been dealt a fearful blow.'

...

It will not be military defeat but economics that destroys Putin’s dream: just as it did his beloved Soviet Union.'

www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2571745/Stop-bluster-We-hit-Putin-wallet-sensitive-anatomy.html

I think that Putin will play a long game and may even regain influence in Ukraine or large parts of it by creating and supporting a puppet who will work to regain power. Ukraine is basically bust and Putin has gas and other economic advantages that he can use. But it he succeeds, it will have cost him a lot of money and energy that he would have preferred to use elsewhere.