Russia has invaded Ukraine

[ohmymimi]

Not a shot fired. Putin outwits the West and who/what will stop him getting his way?

'It clearly does not bother Russia what anyone accuses her of.'

I think it does. Putin and Russia want to be seen as partners and want to be members of the club and allowed to prosper with club members, while having their interests represented and respected. But it is now becoming obvious that they will not be allowed to.

if you listen to Paddy, he talks about a "clash of cultures" between the European/Western democratic worldview and the Russian worldview, which he says wants to maintain its areas of interest. As if the US/EU/NATO did not wish to maintain its areas of influence. The whole thinking of the elite is to marginalise and exclude Russia. It even extended to EU leaders not turning up to the opening ceremony of the world's Olympics, which is a symbol of peace, friendship and respect between nations. Russia has the World Cup in 2018. I can just imagine the same coordinated petty exclusion and attempt to humiliate Russia by some EU leaders in 2018.

'I would think all of that sounds like a potential win-win for Russia'

I don't think so, because Russia did not want to be excluded, it didn't want a clash, it wanted to participate in Sochi and the FIFA's World Cup and in business as a nation respected and accepted in partnership rather than viewed as as part of a "clash of cultures". This conflict will exclude Russia and promote a "clash".

'All anyone really wants here is stability and their money safe'

I don't think so. This revolution did not just happen. It was planned and had support. The EU rushed to recognise the new government and has not objected to the overthrow of an elected President. We even had the spectacle of a Polish minister saying to the crowd of hardcore neo-fascists that they had to accept the deal or they would "all be dead". the next thing that happened, the police and Berkut all disappeared, the President disappeared, men walked the streets of Kiev with baseball bats, and the President is up for crimes, and the EU has said nothing about it. The deal has not been kept to and yet the EU says nothing.

'It is in nobody's interests to allow jihadists to win in Syria'

Jihadists are just puppets, the same way as the Ukrainian neo-fascists are, and they are used to do the fighting. Stability is not a concern, just as it wasn't in Iraq where no plan was in place to ensure it.

The exclusion and marginalisation of Russia and the "clash of cultures" is a lose for Russia, a lose for the world and a lose for peace.

The people of Europe are not part of this "clash of cultures" envisaged by the great and the good of the EU.

Increasingly in Europe, people are voting for populist parties who are derided by the great and the good of Europe and who are opposed even to the EU and who want to leave the EU.

The great and the good don't like this trend. Marine Le Pen even says she wants to leave NATO. The great and the good will somehow try to stop this trend of support for populists who oppose the grand vision of an EU superstate interfering in the affairs of sovereign nations, be they Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova or France.

BBC article on Russian vote to approve military deployments

Russia does not have any expansionist aims, but isn't going to stand by whilst a properly elected president is deposed in a neighbouring country (and in effect the Russian-majority areas disenfranchised).

The events in Egypt have taken the gloss off "popular" uprisings that lead to untenable successor regimes. And unless there is proper participation for all regions of Ukraine, then a successor regime will not be fair.

They will prosper no matter what. They have just had the Olympics. They went off successfully, and world leaders not showing up didn't seem to affect the good spirits of anyone on the reviewing stand. The Russians are busy setting up their own club. The potential next president of Egypt visited Moscow very recently. Russia does not want to be accepted on anyone else's terms but its own. If it will not be 'accepted' warts and all then Russia is prepared to stay outside of the club. There is no cap in hand attitude on the part of Russia.

Paddy Ashdown is blowing off a load of hot air. There is no 'clash of cultures' between democratic west and Russian east. Both areas want to maintain their own spheres of interest. One calls itself democratic. One calls itself Russia. Democracy means nothing when a country is in hock to another to the tune of $10 billion. Ask the people of (western oriented) Greece what democracy means to them now that the Deutschbank runs their country.

The EU has of course stayed away from all of the shenanigans, letting Poland deal with those elements that are closest related to Poland and virulent anti-Soviet/Russian sentiment (the neo Nazis). All the EU wants is stability, hence recognising the new and shaky Kiev government. Once the east is stabilised the EU will also recognise whatever fait accompli emerges there. The revolution was encouraged by the US, which clearly did not manage the EU very well ('fuck the EU') or bother to get the EU onside, and clearly did not take into account the bad feelings American bugging of Merkel's phone and other disasters its 'intelligence gathering' in Europe caused, all sorts of details of which emerged when Edward Snowdon defected. And of course we do not yet know what other gems Russia has intercepted and is prepared to use to embarrass America with in front of European governments.

Jihadists and neo Nazis are not puppets. Stability is a concern and that is why they are feared above all else. Or they should be, but unfortunately Hillary Clinton is a complete fool where foreign policy goes). In the interests of stability in Iraq a far longer occupation of that country was necessary than the version of war ('Berlin by Christmas') that was initially sold to the American electorate. Into the vacuum created by the toppling of Saddam Hussein rushed the fundamentalists and those interested in settling old Sunni/Shi'ite scores.

mathanxiety I agree with a lot of your points, but the whole Sunni/Shia battle is what the West wants. The Neo-nazis are agents of outside sources with big money in their pockets. They can and will easily be weakened when they are no longer needed. The Jihadists are also a tool in the armoury of Saudis etc so that they can achieve their aims in a proxy war rather than an open war.

This is about weakening Russia and tieing them up in knots in order to restrict their sphere of influence. the reason it is so dangerous is because Russia is not a pushover and no one knows how they will react.

Paddy always blows off a lot of hot air, but it is the hot air he hears from the powerful decision makers.

What the hell is Putin's justification? He wants to help? What, the same Putin who halted any intervention in Syria?! I haven't seen such hypocrisy since Blair invaded Iraq but continued to refuse to help Palestine.

This is going to end very very badly.

No he doesn't want to help. He wants to keep the more Russian leaning, heavy industrial part of Ukraine under Russian influence or Russian control, partly because of Russian investment there and partly because Russia now rents a Black Sea naval base in Sebastopol and that might not be available if the whole of Ukraine gets under the thumb of the US.

Russia recognises the government of Syria thanks to extensive trade and investment and government contracts with Russian firms, and also because Russia (rightly) sees the hand of Islamists in the revolt going on there just as that hand was present in Egypt and nearly succeeded in taking over (was only stopped by the army and Egypt isn't out of the woods yet). Russia will not support the deliberate fostering of instability where either its financial interests are jeopardised or where Islamic fundamentalism will rush into any vacuum created by the overthrow of a government.

There is no 'helping' involved.

This morning's BBC update which shows how very little there is that can be done (unless you think that the diplomatic efforts underway will make any difference).

I hadn't relished the level of anti-ousting protests there as been (in terms of number of cities where there had been major demonstrations). Old president deposed by west, but firmly supported by east. The desire to move closer to EU gets a sympathetic ear in Europe (and US) but was only wanted by half the country, an a half who were prepared to foment violence.

Very scary.

Putin is definitely not a backing-down sort of guy. But then nor is the rest of the Ukraine likely to just smile politely while their military bases are overrun - who would?

So - can't see war being avoided. Poor Ukrainians. Have a Ukrainian facebook friend - friend of a friend who I once met - who is sounding v despondent about the situation as you would expect. Has been sharing/reposting posts of other friends who feel that the Neo-Nazi angle of the new govt has been overstated. But there is so much information, counter-information, deliberate misinformation, it is hard to know who to believe.

Great shame the leaders of the churches in Ukraine - representatives of whom have both been supporting their respective sides - can't get together and make their leaders see sense and talk diplomacy not war. Note pope Francis has done his bit to urge peace.

' Has been sharing/reposting posts of other friends who feel that the Neo-Nazi angle of the new govt has been overstated'

Yes, that has been overstated, however, a far right party has been given some positions in the new government.

But it was the far right Right Sector, who are not a political party, who played an important part in the violent protestors which succeeded in overthrowing the government and who were not prepared to accept the deal that was agreed with the President.

'Great shame the leaders of the churches in Ukraine'

If you go on youtube, you will see one church official of one of the churches backing the revolution with some quite staggering statements.

Putin will do it. He is contemptuous of the west. Didn't Russia roll the tanks into Georgia about 5 years ago?

I have just google to see which ministries the far right Svoboda party has been given

"Ukraine Transition Government: Neo-Nazis in Control of Armed Forces, National Security, Economy, Justice and Education"

"The ultra-right Svoboda Party has scored six major cabinet ministries in the government of Arseniy Yatsenyuk approved by the Ukrainian parliament on Thursday. Svoboda is the Neo-Nazi, ultra-right, anti-Semitic, Russophobic party with its base of support in the Western Ukraine.

The most important post was claimed by a co-founder of Svoboda, Andriy Parubiy. He was named Secretary of the Security and National Defense Committee, which supervises the defense ministry and the armed forces .

The Parubiy appointment to such an important post should, alone, be cause for international outrage. He led the masked Right Sector thugs who battled riot police in the Independence Maidan in Kiev.

The Right Sector is an openly fascist, anti-Semitic and anti-Russian organization. Most of the snipers and bomb throwers in the crowds were connected with this group.

Right Sector members have been participating in military training camps for the last two years or more in preparation for street activity of the kind witnessed in the Ukraine over the last few months.

The Right Sector, as can be seen by the appointment of Parubiy, is now in a position to control major appointments to the provisional government and has succeeded in achieving its long time goal of legalizing discrimination against Russians. The new parliament has passed legislation that declares Russian speakers no longer have equal rights with Ukrainians.

He is also associated with Prime Minister Yatsenyuk’s Fatherland Party. Dmytro Yarosh, leader of the Right Sector delegation in parliament, was named Parubiy’s deputy. These appointments of open fascists to control of the armed forces are particularly alarming given the possibility of provocations against the Russian naval base in Sevastopol.

www.globalresearch.ca/ukraine-transition-government-neo-nazis-in-control-of-armed-forces-national-security-economy-justice-and-education/5371539

Reading that, I don't think Russia will be able to deal with this government which it claims is illegitimate and is in power due to a coup.

'Didn't Russia roll the tanks into Georgia about 5 years ago?'

Yes, it did. But some analysts have said that that move exposed some weaknesses in the Russian military. Ukraine is a far bigger country than Georgia and has about 52 million people, and does have a strong military.

the Soviet Union, and subsequently the Russian Empire Republics, have a long history of doing this.

Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Afghanistan, Georgia - finding a pro-Russian who will "invite them in to help" gives the excuse.

As for the "government which it claims is illegitimate and is in power due to a coup" you mean in the same way that the Tsar is still the legitimate ruler of Russia?

Acc to my facebook friend, the Minister for Education is/was the rector National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy and she claims is someone she knows personally and deeply respects. Obviously, this is all very 3rd hand. But I think it's less clear cut than 'goodies' and 'baddies'. I suspect the vast majority of Ukrainians are ordinary law-abiding people who want a quiet life. And are very worried to put it mildly.

And showing my age here obviously but what has struck me about all the pictures of supposedly fearsome Russian troops massing is how young they look (the ones not hiding behind their mask). One of the pictures today of bloodied supporters of the current govt shows boys who like children. I think everyone's trying to put on bravado but they're all terrified.

Its certainly looking serious.

claig, I don't know how you managed it, but you seem to have tracked down a website run by fruitcakes. I wouldn't believe a word they say.

Their top stories:

News / Top Stories
The U.S. has Installed a Neo-Nazi Government in Ukraine
A Nazi Coup in Ukraine: The US Helped Defeat Nazism in World War II. Obama Helped Bring it Back
Ukraine Transition Government: Neo-Nazis in Control of Armed Forces, National Security, Economy, Justice and Education
Ukraine Neo-Nazi Party Threatens Russia with Nukes: “We’ll Regain our Nuclear Status in 6 Months”
Contamination and Bio-Pollution: The Criminality of the GM Biotech Industry
Ukraine: The Lies Of Empire and the Smokescreen Of Democracy
The Geopolitical History of Ukraine
Military Movements: Ukraine alleges Russian “Invasion” of Crimea as Obama warns of “Costs”
War, “Regime Change” and the Globalization of “Austerity Economics”
Thailand: Protesters to Refocus Movement
Fracking Destroys the Environment and Poisons the Air We Breathe
The West’s Neocolonial Adventure: Africa and the Struggle Against Imperialism
The Human Rights Record of the United States in 2013
On the Brink of Another War? Israel To Hold Lebanon’s Government “Responsible” if Hezbollah Retaliates over Air Strikes
There are No Neo-Nazis in Ukraine. And the Obama Administration does not support Fascists

"Serhiy Kvit

New Education Minister Serhiy Kvit, 48, has worked as President of Kyiv-Mohyla University since 2007. The school is considered one of the best in Ukraine, but has not developed much in 2007. Kvit has been a member of right-wing organizations in Ukraine, and an ardent enemy of previous Education Minister Dmytro Tabachnyk.

He supported EuroMaidan from the early days and led his schools' students during the protests. Despite revolutionary zeal, he was not known for leading any major changed in his school, and was not the student community's first choice for minister."

www.kyivpost.com/opinion/op-ed/katya-gorchinskaya-the-not-so-revolutionary-new-ukraine-government-337768.html

There are some references to

"Serhiy Kvit, a former member of the neo-Nazi Tryzub Bandery"

on the web. I don't know if they are true or not.

'Its certainly looking serious.'

I agree. If you look at the appointments, it is serious.

if you put your trust in the nutters, you might not get reliable information.

The quote about Khit being a former member of Tryzub Bandery only appears on one website, so it is probably not true.

It is very likely that there are many units in the Ukrainian army that would not lift a finger to support the new regime in Kiev.

There have always been neo Nazis in Ukraine and also in other former Soviet Republics in Europe, especially in the Baltic states, where successive American administrations and the EU in their haste to welcome those states with open arms to the west, have turned a blind eye to their influence. Some organisations that are held in high esteem and in some cases publicly honoured by post-Soviet Baltic state governments were active participants in the Holocaust. You can bet your bottom dollar that where there's an eastern European mob with a pro western agenda, there are neo Nazis; it's not always 'pro west' sentiment that is being expressed -- there is a large element of 'anti-Soviet' and a perspective on Russia that is not far from the original Nazi worldview.

The Obama administration is spectacularly bad at distinguishing among opponents of regimes and governments it has formerly supported, and persists in supporting movements that would be greeted with the business end of billy clubs if they reared their heads in American cities. The State Department under Hillary Clinton has embarked on several ill-advised Adventures in Supporting Democracy that have spun out of control thanks to the presence in various Middle East squares of Islamist groups who have not bought into democracy at all, but who have been either dismissed as potential factors or encouraged by American rhetoric to proceed without fear.

claig - sounds like you know more on the guy than I do.

Well, I don't know. I am just googling and some of it may not be accurate.

As far as I can see, the Crimea only has a total population of about 2 million. Does anyone know what the population numbers are in West Ukraine and East ukraine and in different regions such as Kiev?