My mouth also fell open at @OhDear111 's second paragraph. If it's not clear from what I have said already, let me be explicit that I certainly wouldn't make those correlations. I also don't dismiss questions of inequality and access initiatives as 'left wing nonsense'. I think we need to work towards a solution. The answer isn't that the universities should pay for it all though.
For what it's worth, I think that the contextual offer thing is actually a bit of a red herring and I'm actually not too hung up about giving lower offers to some children but expecting those from schools where everyone gets all 9s to do likewise. We don't do it at Oxbridge but I think it's actually a pretty reasonable thing to do. But the point is, A Level grades are just not a good indicator of whether someone is going to do well at Oxbridge. The A Level material is pretty basic/thin and doesn't prepare you well for the tripos. All the students I have talked about have all got all 9s - and yet in the cases of many of them, their writing, though full of 'info' is poorly structured and boring.
That's why we interview - and in the past it would weed these candidates out. But the standards have dropped so much, especially due to large classes/low resources (and consequent lack of exposure/need to speak and argue in front of others, and lack of teacher marking of essays) and the impact of smartphones on attention span and wide reading. So even with interviews, we're just not getting the same calibre anymore.
I think it's worth remembering that in the majority, we are not talking about brilliant rough diamond kids from terribly poor households on benefits. There are a few, and I would love there to be more. Kids from that background who are truly brilliant could get great scholarships at top schools and be set up for life (I've helped a number do this). I have had a few those in the past and am supervising one now. Far more usual are the upper working/middle class kids who are usually top of their school, get all As (because it's really not that uncommon or hard if you are averagely clever and work hard) but just don't write very interestingly because you don't have the cultural capital. I know what I describe above about what we expect in essays sounds like silly History Boys rhetoric, but it's true. And it's actually a very useful skill (though sadly also sets people up to be duplicitous Boris Johnson-types).
@harrietm87 - you came up to Cambridge around the same time I did. I too was a state school student who got a first (in part by intentionally aping the style of the public school kids). You'll have to believe me when I say the standards have dropped dramatically since then, and the gap has widened by miles. It's very sad.
(Incidentally, I have a slight sense that some of what I say above might be a bit contradictory, but I can't quite pin down where. If anyone can, then please let me know!)
So what can be done? Well, @pinotnow says that I imply 'there's no points doing any of it anyway'. That's not what I am saying and really does, I'm afraid, amount to the sort of reductive argumentation I see in so many of these students ("You point out a problem with something and therefore don't believe in its value at all"). This thread was about why Tit Hall want to attract students in specific subjects which are offered at a subset of schools (thank you Rachel Reeves). I simply set out reasons why the College would reasonably want to do this, in order to maintain (or build up) standards. It doesn't preclude the College also running all sorts of worthwhile access schemes and foundation programmes. But in reality the children need a lot more.
If this country is really serious about getting bright state school kids to thrive and flourish at Oxbridge, it needs to set up gifted and talented schemes all over the country, in schools and at weekends, taking children to huge amounts of theatre, music and art, providing music lessons in multiple instruments, plus ensembles and opportunities to be in local drama, etc. In some cases, additional help would be required on top of that for those who might have trouble accessing them at all because of, inter alia, caring responsibilities, disability or mental health problems, gang membership, the need to work as a teenager to bring money in. It would probably be cheaper to pay for them to go to public schools tbh. This would be the absolute gold standard, Rolls Royce access scheme.
I can see why the government doesn't choose to prioritise this when it needs to spend money on getting the general standards up. In this city (the most unequal in the UK - though I know it happens across the country), schools are rightly focusing on the whole pupil body, not just the few who given the right help, might get to Oxbridge. This means, for example, implementing 'proportional setting' to ensure that there is always a 40% proportion of disadvantaged pupils in every set (and they don't all just end up in the lower set). This is really good for those 40%, but can be disastrous for the rest of the set. Now, that might absolutely still be the right thing to do for the school, and the Sutton Trust work is all about raising the general standard a bit. But to improve the issue we've been talking about at Oxbridge, what is required is to not touch the lowest students at all, and rather plough resources into raising the standard of a few by a lot. This is what Oxbridge would want, but is it a good use of public funds, which should be spread out more widely to create broader but more incremental improvements?
In any case, none of this is the job of universities (or universities alone) any more than the Royal College of Music is responsible for the fact that their intake of brilliant musicians is mostly not from the poorest families in the country. That isn't defeatist; it's realistic.
So what can be done, if not the gold-standard access initiatives that I set out above? Probably something like a set of 6 week summer/holiday programmes starting when children are, say, Year 7, and requiring them to sign up for a minimum number? With all the extra additional help for those needing it to access it? Funded jointly between the government, universities and charities...?
Who's up for helping me set up a pilot scheme? Not only designing the curriculum, but creating assessment criteria, getting the funding in, persuading the government to give non-existent funding to something that would be political suicide (not raising general standards but helping kids get into Oxbridge), liaising with schools and authorities to identify families, managing the safeguarding and risk assessments, setting standards and deciding what to do if children drop out/don't turn up, employing teachers and mentors, funding and engaging stand-in carers for those families where the child is the carer.