It strikes me it is all a bit of fakery. Schools predict high to get their kids offers. Universities have high typical offers to try to attract good students and make themselves look exclusive. Kids apply, get high offers then drop their grades a bit (or even a lot) but get in anyway to their firm choice. If you were savy you would apply based on last years clearing grades for the best university you could get on that basis. Or trade up on results day but I think the problem it’s all the last minute uncertainty.
i know my theory doesn’t work for the most competitive universities and courses but it does seem to be the minority.
I wonder if you were predicted this years clearing grades or just over and applied for next year, would the uni’s offer at probably the standard offer and then let you in? Let’s say a course was standard offer AAA, clearing 2025 BBC and you were predicted BBB. If you apply for 2026 and got an AAA offer, get BBC on the day and still get in. It would take a lots of holding your nerve and of course relies on the same clearing patterns each year which is not guaranteed but again I think it wouldn’t be a stupid strategy to get the best uni you can. On the other hand maybe if you are going to be predicted BBB you would be better off on a course where the standard offer is BBB.
My DC is in year 12 going into year 13 and we will be making notes on her potential courses on Thursday.