Predictions- just angry and hurt for my dd.

[PinkChaires]

for context, my dd attends a very very large well regarded sixth form college where departments basically work completely separately
on her biology mock, she got a B ( this was in feb -dont get me started on how i think it was far too early)
she got As on every test all year around minus one in jan which was deemed as unnecessarily hard by her teacher at parents evening. She got told at parents evening by her teacher with me there that she would get an A prediction post mock and she then went on to get a A on the next test. She has gotten a B prediction today. Shes really upset since she thought she would be getting A*AA so all of her plans are out the window.

Glad it’s sorted. Communication is often key!
And it wasn’t a disaster anyway as due to be reviewed in Sept.

One thing to mention, is that for v competitive courses at top unis, you often need in excess of the standard offer, in terms terms of predicted grades, as there are simply too many applicants. Top places won’t offer to people without the predicted grades. So they absolutely matter.

Generally the idea is that they are realistically optimistic. There’s no point being wildly optimistic but it does candidates no favour to be very pessimistic either.

The key is to then apply to a range of places and possibly firm and flexible nature diff grades.

Strategy does come in. Some places will take an offer holder who misses by a grade - preferring that to going to Clearing. So even a slightly optimistic insurance can be fine.

Tip for Op and others in yr12 - look at uni web pages on A level results day this year. Screen shot what’s in Clearing at 8.15am. It gives an indication of what could happen next year and can help strategic applications. By 9.30 the best Clearing places will be gone and the info won’t be there anymore. It’s a vital, short lived window of info.

@HPFA Very few MFL degrees are AAA. It really depends on subject.

Depends on the weighting in some subjects. I teach A-level maths, if a student hit and A in my applied paper it still wouldn’t be enough to lift the grade if the pure was a lowish B.

I too am glad this has been sorted, OP.

Post qualification application could in fact be made to work in the UK and I have been part of exploring this. In fact it helps pupils from less affluent schools: about 80% of predicted grades are incorrect with the majority overoptimistic. Schools sending fewer pupils to university, however, tend to underpredict, creating a terrible trap for their able, ambitious pupils.

The real problem is the substantial effort a PQA system would require of every stakeholder: universities, schools, examining bodies and families planning holidays. Everyone likes the idea until they realise the upheaval for themselves.

If the Chinese can do it (the exam is different, but consider the scale!) we ought to be able to manage.

Huge apology; jet lag which is a poir excuse
China does not operate a PQA process! It us however true that their university entrance exam is in June and they turn it around very quickly.

Predicative grades don’t mean anything. It all depends on her actual grades.

Absolutely agree with this

Aside from the unfairness of offers made on predictions, where some schools routinely push predictions up and others don’t, the vast amount of public money wasted on this process is ridiculous. Imagine if teachers could just teach rather than assess and have to guess / negotiate what to predict. Every applicant then assessed by 5 different universities when they will only ever attend one of them at most. Some pupils get 5 offers, others none. Then the whole clearing process where some very good degrees end up short on students because their offer holders went elsewhere. Makes no sense at all.

I don't understand what you mean by this? School pupils apply to university based on their predicted grades. If you are predicted (say) AAB for a course requiring AAA, you are unlikely to receive an offer from that university. If you go on to obtain AAA in the actual exams, it doesn't matter - you can't go to that university because you didn't get an offer. You could go through clearing, but if it's a popular course it won't be available in clearing. You could take a year off and then you probably will get a place, but many pupils don't want to do this and would prefer to go straight from school to uni.

I’ve went to university I know how it works. A strong personal statement was what was needed. Predicted grades don’t mean anything I’m afraid. If you’re predicted all A* but have a weak PS no university will touch you. It’s changed from this autumn in terms of answering three questions instead. Again you need to demonstrate that you’re a strong applicant or you want even get an offer or interview.

@19ptrialprice Your experience may be a little out of date or limited to very high demand courses. There are a lot of programmes at a lot of universities, even higher tariff ones, where the PS (or questions now) are not read at all. A lot of offer making is automated. Not something that is necessarily advertised at open days though.

She can still apply. Unis realise that results differ from predictions.

At my school we predict at various stages. If their end of Yer 12 predictions don’t lignite with their uni choices they can negotiate by doing extra work/retests etc. We also have 2 sets of predictions- one internal and one for UCAS and the UCAS one is often higher. Our philosophy is to give a best case scenario prediction for this. In other words what that student might get if they worked really hard and had a great set of papers. It may be that a 6th form college is less flexible but I’d arrange a meeting to discuss. Alternatively she could reapply once she’s had her results through. Biology is notoriously hard.

This. PS is less important than grade predictions.

You can sometimes argue it out with the school to get predictions raised as I did a year in private school (9) due to bullying, so didn't do sats which they use to predict gcses. I got given the average prediction of the school year group (D-F) and hence put in bottom set for everything which would have prevented me applying to medicine. My mum complained and gave them a ton of evidence and they changed it (ended up with 9a* 5a and a b)

This is very good advice op. Follow it. And get your daughter to follow it also re the extra reading etc she can do. This, ime, is the difference between a B and an A grade student at A level so she will helping herself too.

Don’t go in all guns blazing. Don’t mention another student (that you know nothing apart from third hand anecdotes anyway) and set Out your DD’s case - including her in the process - as suggested here.

This is only partly true. I’m in Ireland, working in a university, with DC sitting exams this year.

Firstly it’s a sweeping comment about another country’s educational system - the UK system is different but there are merits to both.

it’s not at all as simple as you suggest. While we don’t have predicted grades here, the level of competition for many courses has become unviably intense. It becomes restricted to students with the absolute top points eg for courses like Physio, Medicine, as well as many business / economic courses. I our case, because we only use LC grades, in most courses, and students must count 6 subjects, the pressure is very high on students - they often have to excel across all subjects which is hard.

For Medicine, which my DD wants, you also sit the Hpat exam which is arduous and clashes with the Mock exams.

You really are not sufficiently informed - both systems have merits, as well as challenges.

Did you miss the part where I said that I went to school in Ireland?

I am very sufficiently informed, thank you very much.

You are certainly not more sufficiently informed than me. I have been through the Irish school system myself.

I wrote that there are no predicted grades in Ireland, and that is correct.

Exactly this.
In reality, she might still get her A, if she works hard and has the required skills.
You're far too involved.

The other child is nothing to do with you.

@tripleginandtonic Unis filter out when the predictions are too low. Why waste the choices? Anyway the predictions are revised but this advice just isn’t going to work on many competitive courses.

This. Why are YOU upset? Get a grip.

she just needs to work harder if she’s that bothered.

jeez, no wonder kids have mental health problems when their parents behave like this.

“when I were young” we got on with it, I was old enough to know that my exam results were down to me and the effort I put in.

my parents didn’t get involved.

PGs are used for making offers. In this sense they matter very much

Agree that @WombatChocolate has posted excellent advice

I got predicted a C for some reason in History A level. I had a meeting with the teacher and told her this would affect my university applications - she said she would up it to an A if I promised to work harder. I did and got an A. So tell her to ask for a meeting with the teacher.

Would you prefer the teachers were unrealistic in predicting all As if perhaps this is not achievable and not in your DD’s interest?

Well done for getting it changed.
DC had similar and they refused to change. (& they achieved the A).

But for future reference, you don't have to limit apps to predictions. Although the top Unis ARE more likely to not offer.