Predictions- just angry and hurt for my dd.

[PinkChaires]

for context, my dd attends a very very large well regarded sixth form college where departments basically work completely separately
on her biology mock, she got a B ( this was in feb -dont get me started on how i think it was far too early)
she got As on every test all year around minus one in jan which was deemed as unnecessarily hard by her teacher at parents evening. She got told at parents evening by her teacher with me there that she would get an A prediction post mock and she then went on to get a A on the next test. She has gotten a B prediction today. Shes really upset since she thought she would be getting A*AA so all of her plans are out the window.

They don't accept everyone who applies and meets the grades in Ireland either.

Obviously there is only a certain number of students that can be accepted for the course, even if they meet the grades.

There is no need whatsoever for "predicted grades"

Glad your daughter's predicted grade has been sorted @PinkChaires I think their policy of no emails over the summer seems a bit harsh- out of interest is this PSC? Considering sixth form colleges at the moment and the set up you have described sounds like it could be them.

The other option is a gap year and applying with actuals. Use the gap year to work, save, and do something that will help her CV when she applies for graduate jobs. I think that’s what I’d be considering as an option when advising my kids in this position.

No , its another sixth form college in Manchester of similar size

We were in this situation last year. DS was confident of getting A and/or A* in 2 subjects but the third (language) was more borderline. He’d consistently got Bs every time. And his prediction was B. That meant there was no point in applying to his preferred uni. I contacted the school (DS was against this and in despair) and asked them for advice. They discussed with head of year and said predictions should be achievable AND aspirational. They upped him to an A.

He had an offer from his preferred uni (A*AA) but his insurance is AAB… so fingers crossed.

Speak to the school OP.

Are you sure there’s not a policy document re predictions there was at my dc’s big sixth form.
It went off mocks and other work but there was a whole review process where they could submit extra work/tests in September and potentially get a new prediction. It was all evidence based. What the policy specifically said was they wouldn’t just predict As due to parental pressure or she needs it for uni type pressure.
Work over summer and ask for a review in September.

Just read your updates. Well done to your dd getting it sorted quickly.

Well they are just that - a prediction of how you are doing at that time. Class tests/end of unit tests will only cover a section of the course whereas a mock will cover a fuller range. Glad she got it sorted

Except Oxford and Cambridge, they require the A predictions before they will pass the application along to the "next stage"

Again it depends on her course Without A predictions you can't get to interview for medicine. Once you do, they often relax the offer details to Bs.So if that is what she wanted and she didn't get the predictions,yes, it would affect her whole future.

@LivelyMintViper My point is her life isn’t ruined. Putting such pressure on young people and saying things like “this is her whole future etc” is just so extreme.

@PinkChaires It’s sorted. Well done. If she wanted to apply with grades, she could have done. Horrible system or not, it’s what we have if you don’t want a gap year. If you do, apply with grades and it’s not horrible.

There are far more applicants in the UK than ROI. There simply isn't the time between results and start of uni to mark all exams and interview in some cases the applicants though. Any larger gap has after research been disregarded as being detrimental to widening participation in Higher Education. There have been various reports which are available online explaining this in detail.

I didn't say her life was ruined. Only that it could affect her application depending on the course she wished to pursue. In this case the school were putting an unnecessary obstacle on her. Better to deal with it now rather than unnecessary disappointment later. The issue is not dds performance only the unjust projection. The pressure is on the school to address this. They did no issue. I bet dd feels a lot better!

@LivelyMintViper No I know you didnt say that. Ive been trying to make that point to the OP.

Dd is feeling a lot better. It isnt about the B. She also got a B in history which she felt was justified and had already made plans with her teacher as to how she could raise the grade by oct (which is when the 2nd set come out). It was the fact she felt it was unfair prediction and it made the A*AA courses somewhat out of reach

@PinkChaires Being honest, she needs courses with a range of grades. She’s upped one to an A but another is a B. Depending on what she wants to study I think A star AA is aspirational. Fair enough but you should be looking at 5 at this level of grades. Certainly do look for AAA or AAB.

She will be fine.

I'd suggest that she emails the teacher/s (copying you in) saying she had thought she would be predicted an A and can this be adjusted. She could always add that she wants to achieve predictions of XXX in order to 'open the door' to offers (as we all know, some unis offer from the top down even for courses not requiring the highest grades) and she will be prepared to work hard and is there anything she can do to demonstrate this (e.g. next topics tests, essays etc). She should also add that she will be sure include some viable backup/insurance options too as this is what some teachers are worried about.

For what it is worth, around 85% of UCAS predictions are incorrect, most of them predicting higher than what is actually achieved.

So, yes, contact school but might be good to get DS to do it (even if you help her with the wording).

They haven’t got her mixed up with someone else OP? Some big state colleges, not noticing a compliant well behaved student have made errors in the past. I’d be pissed given the other students poor previous grades being also predicted a B. Or teacher just rattled it off and couldn’t be bothered checking. I’d be questioning it OP.

She's already updated with the fact they contacted the teacher who changed the B to an A

Good news OP. Unnecessary stress for you both.

I say this on every one of these threads. DS was predicted 4x Ds for his A levels. He was supremely confident he would do well in the real thing.
His actual results were 2 A Stars and 2 As. He would have taken a year off if necessary, but didn't have to as he was on the phone to all the unis he was interested in from the crack of dawn on results day and ended up exactly where he wanted to be. Predicted grades don't really matter if you have gumption.

That just shows how stupid predicted grades are.

@Nevertrustacop He could trade up though! I wonder what % of predictions are that wrong? Not many predict a D x 4 and Dc get As. Very unusual. The standard worry is dc aiming high and missing!

What's your definition of a "decent" uni?

Sheffield has a good number of courses at ABB just as one example.