How to choose what offers to accept when grades not up there?

[Spanielmad]

So uni is coming closer. My child is struggling with one of her a-levels (should never have chosen it) and currently (November) on an E, predicted grade a D and hopefully will actually get a C.
Other two subjects should be fine, predicted grades A* (also chosen subject for uni course) and B, but hopefully should get AA on results day.

Child wants to go to top unis that require AAA or AAB. But what if we end up with AAD?? or ABD, ABC? I imagine we will get 5 offers, but all conditional. So in the spring we will have to accept one firm and one spare offer, but we have no idea how to make that choice. Accepting an AAA offer seems a long shot, but then again, I know of lots of people who got in Russell Group unis with much lower grades, so perhaps worth a shot? Chosen course is popular but not madly popular. Should she only accept offers from unis that match her grades - that would mean much, much lower ranked unis. We know she will flourish on a top uni, she's a quick learner. I suspect we're gonna end up in clearing.... but how do we choose 2 offers to accept in the spring that gives us a chance??

Yes as @SheilaFentiman says, they don’t need to offer on ACD when they have candidates with PG AAA.

This kind of spiky profile at A levels is unusual IME - maybe bc the factors that affect performance - ability, liking the subject, support at home, good work ethic - will be the sane across subjects, whereas a more spiky GCSE profile (eg DS2 who got 9 in biology but 6 in Eng lit) indicates in his case a lack of interest in a compulsory subject. But that should never be an issue at A level.

Ds could have done better if he’d worked - again, that should not be the issue at A level. Astar to D is four grades difference. That’s a lot and as such not that common. Op says there are specific reasons and I agree it may be worth exploring mit circs (depending on the reasons - fair enough not to share them) but this is why unis asking for UCAS points may be her DD’s friend.

Is there a uni your daughter particularly wants to go to other than it just being labelled a "top" one?

Taking a gap year and doing a different A-Level isn't a bad thing to do at all but it's going to require a lot of motivation. If you've set your heart on say, Edinburgh, because you love the look of it and nothing else comes close then you'll find the will power.

Working away at an A-Level on your own because someone or something is telling you that you must go to a uni called Manchester, Leeds, Sheffield rather than one called Swansea, Essex or Reading for no particularly compelling reason is a whole different ball game.

I agree whole-heartedly with the post above. Surely a Predicted Grade is just that - the sum of assessments and the subject teacher's experience re. what your daughter is likely to accomplish in tne exams (after thorough revision and preparation).

That's why it's a Predicted Grade It's not what she would get if she sat the exam today, or a starting point to be negotiated upwards by pressurising her subject teacher (appreciate you may not be doing this).

The only thing likely to change her outcome upwards is striking lucky in getting questions that she's strongest in. Or some extra improvement through more revision or private tutoring than her teacher expects.

Encourage your daughter to make sensible choices now based on predictions. No harm in going for those with a history of lower offer, but really it should be course and location that drive your daughter's decision. If she does by chance get higher grades and more options through clearing, that's great - as you've pointed out:

"I've been telling her we might have to see what clearing brings and can always still decide then to take a gap year, but it would be a massive let down for her. I don't suppose writing to some department and explain/beg would help LOL (otherwise everyone would do that)".

What I don't agree with is that a gap year would be a massive let down. These are big decisions and it's worth her learning that sometimes stepping back and re-evaluating or taking other options pays off. Whether she travels, stays at home and works or takes another course, a gap year simply flies by. I have a DC doing this now. Barely six months from September until summer and uni prep is on the horizon.

It doesn't seem right to beg university departments over her offer at this stage. Unless it's THE ONE that she's really researched and been after all along, any that do lower their offer might not really be the right course...she could be clutching at straws instead of a proper balanced choice next year with grades-in-hand.

Good luck!

Yes, OP, forget much of this but units of admission counting UCAS tariff points will regard AStar B as roughly equivalent to AA based on the points assigned to each grade.

These may not be the unis your DD was originally looking at; eg few RG unis offer in tariff points. But DD may need to look beyond that, partic if she is not considering a gap year. Many unis offering on tariff points have super, if less glam, degree programmes.

Letting go of preconceptions could be a viable alternative to a gap year

Sorry, with apologies to @clary. I was going into back posts when I said to ignore

I would be wary of using 2024 clearing figures as any kind of template, as lots of top universities had spaces in clearing due to the fuck up with international student visas.

@Spanielmad to find out clearing grades for universities in recent years, the best approach is to submit a freedom of information request via whatdotheyknow.com to the universities you're interested in. Responses have to occur within 30 days, so it's quite efficient

Also worth taking a browse on that site - you may find people have already done this for universities you're interested in.

With predicted grades of A*,B,D I’d be looking at:

2 of - Lancaster/Newcastle/Cardiff/Surrey/Exeter Falmouth as aspirational- you might be lucky with the D and get an offer although certainly not guaranteed. Of this group Lancaster is the highest ranking and the most aspirational (as in easily the best of those offers) but it is also probably also the easiest to get the offer from with the most flexibility on results day due to the structure of their degrees. Exeter Falmouth probably won’t offer on that grade profile but again you might be lucky. It has to be Exeter Falmouth Campus though since they ask for lower grades than Exeter main.

UEA/Reading/Swansea/Aberystwyth/Keele /Leicester as good solid universities

Lincoln,NTU,Sheffield Hallam,Manchester Met,Portsmouth,Plymouth as far more realistic choices where she’s likely to be fine with offers but they are still well regarded.

Remember if she pulls it out of the hat on results day you can always grade up through clearing if space is available. One of mine had Durham through clearing two years ago.

In general I’d steer clear of Russell group (with the exception of Newcastle or Cardiff which are typically a bit easier to get into). This isn’t because Russell Group are any better (a lot of them are actually quite far down in the top half of the rankings) it’s because the perception that they are better has become a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy and has made them very popular. Plus they’ve realised that a significant part of the placement in the rankings is based on “entry requirements” (ie if you ask for 3x A stars it scores you highly under that criteria) so you move up in the rankings.

when she gets her offers then pick one from group 1 or 2 as her firm and one from group 3 as her insurance

I don’t think you can apply to “Exeter Falmouth” - some subjects eg law with business are on offer at the falmouth campus and others in Exeter. Not sure which campus offers geography.

Lincoln,NTU,Sheffield Hallam,Manchester Met,Portsmouth,Plymouth as far more realistic choices where she’s likely to be fine with offers but they are still well regarded.

completely agree with this and I’d certainly be looking at some of these. I know someone who did geography at Lincoln and enjoyed it.

Have to say, after a spending a wet day in Falmouth recently unless she’s into surfing or diving i think it would be a depressing place to spend 3 years! Maybe the student scene is more buzzing than was apparent to me as a day tripper!

I also know someone who did geography at Aberystwyth and enjoyed it. Not sure what their grade requirements are. Bit of an odd/smaller uni experience, might be a bit marmite, but the 2 people I know who have studied her loved the whole experience and living in Aberystwyth.

Having seen that the subject she has struggled with is maths, I would recommend getting her a tutor if you can afford it. That may well help push her grade up a bit. At the moment that feels like the most practical option.

Sorry if you have already answered this, but has she been to see unis and found ones that she really wants to attend? If not, has she considered a gap year? Once she knows what grades she has it might put her in a stronger position to talk to universities realistically about getting a place, and it would give her a chance to go explore a variety of university open days to see where she wants to go.

A number of the courses can either be studied at the Falmouth campus or main campus. I don’t actually know for geography. Grade requirements are lower for the Falmouth campus (supply and demand presumably)

I’d agree a gap year might be sensible

https://www.exeter.ac.uk/study/undergraduate/courses/geography/corngeogbabsc/

Falmouth BA/BSc

https://www.exeter.ac.uk/study/undergraduate/courses/geography/exegeogba/

Exeter BA

https://www.exeter.ac.uk/study/undergraduate/courses/geography/exegeogbsc/

Exeter BSc

Grade requirements are AAA-AAB for all three.

Ok in which case knock Exeter off the list since they offer in tiers and with ABD you won't get an offer

On another thread someone reported their DC had a BBB offer from Aber for Geography.

My DD is in her first term at Aber and seems happy at the moment!

"I've been telling her we might have to see what clearing brings and can always still decide then to take a gap year, but it would be a massive let down for her.

Why, though? All of my children took gap years. One took several, to the point that we were starting to call it a gap life. He applied with grades in hand (ABC, similar to your daughter's current predictions) and got five instant offers, including from places originally asking for AAA.

He made the most of his increased maturity, treated university like the full-time job he'd been doing before, and has done spectacularly well.

I think it's fine to not want a gap year, especially if there's plenty of decent unis she can go to. It's just a matter of shifting from that top uni mindset to be more real and embracing that.

Suspect your child needs a reality check.

Thanks for all the advice. Appreciated. Hard work and a greater variety of unis on the UCAS list will be the next step (thinking Reading BBB and some Cardiff courses are also BBB). We will prepare for Clearing and she will consider gap year (and retake). Thanks all.

My daughter also wants to do liberal arts - and we have noticed the unis with the most extensive options choices want AAA. On UCAS some unis do post what historical acceptance grades - and I am sorry but I think a D is going to be tricky. I feel your pain though because my daughter is the same AA or A*A for her topics relevant to Liberal Arts...her third A level is who least favourite and should have chosen something else.
has your daughter done and EPQ? Its not too late if she has not - they can be submitted in march with grade back in august but she might be better off knuckling down with the maths.

It might be worth her looking at some foundation courses to see if she is eligible for entry. That way she still gets to go to uni - and will just start the actual course she wants to do in 12 months time.

You’ve had lots of great suggestions of unis to look at @Spanielmad – but be aware (I am sure you are!) that time is of the essence. I would get your DD to make it a priority over the next couple of days to look at these unis and see which, if any, appeal – course details, location, city/campus, distance from home among other factors.

Some unis will still have open days coming up so there is still time to have a look round.

I presume (from your first post) she already has a rough list of unis to apply for – is she willing to reconsider those? Can you share with us which ones she is looking at as we hive mind of MN has wide-ranging knowledge and some may be able to advise on specific unis (or example, their DC wre accepted despite not making their offer)?

I see you mention a couple of lower offer unis she is going to look at – but be aware that if she gains A-starBD that won’t (ridiculous as it sounds) necessarily be acceptable for a BBB offer, although of course the uni has discretion and may accept her. That’s why I think it’s worth including at least one UCAS-points course, as that allows for a spiky profile – depending on other factors I suggest Sheff Hallam, Man Met, NTU or UWE.

Dd won’t necessarily get 5 offers
some kids get none

Go for places that accept the predicted grades
then accept her favourite and one other. If the favourites is a higher offer ( ie on a par with predicted ) then go for a Uni with a lower grade requirement that she thinks she’ll get.

RG unis mostly don’t have transferable grades so with an ABB offer won’t accept AAC you need the C to be a B even though you have two As when only one is required.

If your daughter wants offers she’ll need to be realistic about choosing Unis that accord with her predicted grades, or she might not get any offers.

If you haven't visited I'd definitely go to Lancaster before you apply. DD was impressed on paper (she wants to study maths and physics) but hated the feel of the campus and the city, which is a good busride away. The uni of Cumbria was closer to the centre.