How to choose what offers to accept when grades not up there?

[Spanielmad]

So uni is coming closer. My child is struggling with one of her a-levels (should never have chosen it) and currently (November) on an E, predicted grade a D and hopefully will actually get a C.
Other two subjects should be fine, predicted grades A* (also chosen subject for uni course) and B, but hopefully should get AA on results day.

Child wants to go to top unis that require AAA or AAB. But what if we end up with AAD?? or ABD, ABC? I imagine we will get 5 offers, but all conditional. So in the spring we will have to accept one firm and one spare offer, but we have no idea how to make that choice. Accepting an AAA offer seems a long shot, but then again, I know of lots of people who got in Russell Group unis with much lower grades, so perhaps worth a shot? Chosen course is popular but not madly popular. Should she only accept offers from unis that match her grades - that would mean much, much lower ranked unis. We know she will flourish on a top uni, she's a quick learner. I suspect we're gonna end up in clearing.... but how do we choose 2 offers to accept in the spring that gives us a chance??

Hopefully an admissions expert will be along with some proper advice. I was just wondering, because I've got all this to come next year - why do you think you'll get 5 offers, or any from top unis, if she's predicted a D? Are top places not focused on people with predicted AAAs and wouldn't consider someone with a D even for a conditional? I think what you say about ABC being a possibility sounds likely and so it makes sense to focus on unis who are looking for that rather than ones that require AAA or AAB that she's never going to get, even with your most optimistic estimate. You may well be right about clearing, seems like there were lots of decent places still available in clearing last year, but I'm not sure if those were at top unis who'd previously needed the highest grades. Personally, in your situation, I wouldn't bother going for/accepting AAA offers unless you've had the conversation with the uni admissions and they're clear they want her even with the D/C/E, however it shakes down. There are a lot of unis in the middle between top and much lower ranked, and that may well be where she fits and would flourish, so worth scoping those out and having at least one accepted offer for grades she can realistically achieve.

@Spanielmad , as the other poster says what is the school predicting on the UCAS form? If it's a D then you are unlikely to have the offers to choose from? You can submit at the end of Jan if your dc can get the predicted grade up to a C. What subject is the D currently in? Ie chemistry or French.

Yes I agree with @pinkdelight’s excellent post.

It’s very unlikely that a uni that asks for AAA will offer to a student with PGs of Astar B D.

IME PGs in general (unless you know different about your DD’s school) are optimistic if anything; I would certainly not assume that PGs of B and D will become A and C next August.

She should look for unis that fit her PGs and maybe include one at AAB or ABB but it sounds as tho either of those would be a stretch and she may well not get an offer.

If she does much better then yes, clearing may be good (tho it really varies) or she could reapply with grades in hand.

Woukd you say what the course is? And is it worth getting a tutor for the worst grade?

Best of luck to her.

Agree with the others, why do you expect 5 offers at all if the predicted grades aren't close to their requirements? I'd think carefully as it's possible she'll come away with no offers.

Hi, OP and @pinkdelight

I am a former Russell Group STEM admissions tutor. My School is very competitive with an offer above AAA. We sometimes must accept applicants who don’t quite make the offer but very seldom go into Clearing.

This is tricky. ‘Top university’ doesn’t have a precise definition, and the space between what admissions requirement a degree programme publishes and what it will accept can vary widely. At one extreme, Oxford’s standard offer is AAA but successful applicants mostly have (significantly) higher PGs as well as excellent scores on admissions tests. OTOH I hesitate to guess at the lower bound for achieved grades of students on some programmes with published AAA requirements. UCAS and the Complete University Guide show the achieved grades of recent cohorts on degree programmes. Note that this includes students on contextual offers.

Back when I was an admissions tutor and my programme was climbing the rankings, we stuck on AAA for a little while. We always had enough applications to reject out of hand everyone with PGs more than 2 grades off, and most years everyone more than 1 grade off. (We applied the same principle to contextual offers, obviously from a lower base) We considered cases at the borderline carefully on an individual basis. Now with our very high offer, in a good year we reject everyone (barring Mit Circs and contextual offers) who doesn’t meet it.

It may sound harsh, but it is no favour to accept someone who isn’t working to the admissions standard. The large majority of PGs are overpredicted (more now than when I was doing the job). All admissions tutors know it is much worse to be shut out in August and have only Clearing options than to give yourself realistic options to start with. After all, anyone is free to use Clearing.

An A star in your chosen subject is fantastic, of course. In a very competitive situation Astar B does not count for an AA requirement, but if bums are needed on seats it is a substitution we are all delighted to make. Unfortunately the D is a real sticking point.

However AAC and Astar BC are good sets of grades! If DD can achieve either of these she will have better (realistic) options applying next year with grades in hand. She could also pick up a new A level, to complete in one year, and submit her application in Jan with a new PG, if this appeals.

DD will get through this, OP, although I am sure it is stressful right now. Note that many YP resist the idea of a gap year on the grounds that they will be a year behind their friends. Long experience shows that a portion of those friends going right off to uni will experience delays of some type, or drop out. If it takes an extra year now to get things right, that’s nothing as against setting yourself up to succeed in life. Also, the students who have done a gap year tend to adjust better to uni, become informal leaders, etc. I wish more of them did it!

I'd say Clearing, or a further year doing an A Level your DD can manage. It's hard to advise if we don't know what sort of degree programme she's aiming for.

You may think she'll be OK at university in spite of a D, but as a former Admissions tutor, and HoD, I'd be doubtful. The A Level work is the evidence we have.

And it's "her" not "we." She's the one doing the work, and the one thinking about & choosing a university.

To clarify: I meant that DD could take a gap year and pick up a new A level next year. I hope that was the only way my suggestion, with the subsequent discussion of gap years, could be taken.

But I think that a gap year is often a very good thing @poetryandwine - if I had my way, all intending university students would have to do one. Get them off the educational/exams treadmill, get them doing something which requires regard for others, give them a break to see if university is what they want to do above all else.

I think it's highly unlikely that Unis requiring AAA or even AAB or ABB would offer on predictions of A*BD. Your DD would be better off looking at Unis asking for ABC to CCC range (or points equal to her predictions). Yes, these won't be the highest ranked, but gently, your DD isn't performing at the standard required for top ranked Unis. FWIW, for almost all careers bar a few specific ones, the Uni attended is irrelevant and the important thing is the degree class they achieve.

Assuming not contextual I can’t see Astar/B/E prediction on her form getting any offers from AAA or AAB courses.
Best option is clearing or year out and apply grades in hand.
If you share subject someone on here or wiwikau facebook will have clearing knowledge although 2024 was a year very low grades were account some rg universities.

We we looked at good uni with lower entry requitements and DD1 shifted what she wanted to study as well - she now thriving at Uni looking at a 2:1.

On offer day she was interviewed and they lower their requirement further as she made such a good impression - but DH uni that's not something they can do. She actually just failed to meet those and was still accepted.

An advantage of As level being part of A-level here we sort of had head up things weren't going well - so could reconsider.

I think you'll have to see what they offer her - and then decide what she is really likely to get - they may lower a grade or two on the day if they need to fill the course.

Were in same boat with DS - he's in the ball park on a good day of usual offers or well one teacher I spoke to today say he an A* student - but he got B in As level this summer and hasn't done well in latest tests so how do we judge what's likely. He has a clear favorite - though keep reading about cuts and possible strikes in press - though he'd be happy with second favorite - so I think he'll want to accept those even if they are higher than ideal and see what happens.

Gosh, so many replies, thanks so much! This is really helpful. I suppose we should amend our positive expectations of getting offers. Maybe not then. :( She is frustrated because if she had not chosen maths (predicated grade D) but something easier, she would have had predicted grades AAB (and possible final grades of AAA). It is frustrating to know she could have been an PG AAA student and now is stuck with maths, and a predicted grades of a D, B and A. Her predicted grade B is not that optimistic, more 'current', and should have been an A, but teacher not wanting to budge. She wants to study Geography or Liberal Arts (with Geo). She can be a top grade student, it's just that maths is a massive obstacle (although was fine at gcse level obvs). We did think of doing a gap year and re-taking maths, or perhaps taking a completely different a-level and doing that in the gap year. But she really would much rather go off to uni, and would hate to wait a year, so it's a tricky choice. She is so very much looking forward to uni life. We struggle to find many unis that require lower grades; it all seems to be top tier or lower tier and little in between. She really wants top tier (and she could do it), but facing reality is a tough one. I've been telling her we might have to see what clearing brings and can always still decide then to take a gap year, but it would be a massive let down for her. I don't suppose writing to some department and explain/beg would help LOL (otherwise everyone would do that).
Anyway thanks everyone, super helpful.

Of the aspirational choices have a look at how may (if any) had places in Clearing this year. This may indicate there’s some wriggle room on results day. Of those who require the lower grades- go and visit, look up reviews, big up the locations and their advantages so she is feeling upbeat about them ahead of the results

Just be aware that most young people achieve below their predictions. I'm not sure why you are so sure that your DD is an exception. Teachers have experience and want their pupils to do well, and if they (with all the evidence of your DDs performance) felt she was realistically likely to get A*AC, then that's what they would have predicted.

If they've predicted A*BD, then they think that's what they think is a realistic prediction of what she'll achieve if she performs to the best of her capability. Obviously it's not an exact science, but still their prediction is far more realistic than your uninformed guess.

I think you need to manage your and your DDs expectations, and realise that going to a non top tier/Russell Group Uni is perfectly fine, and won't affect her life or prospects in any way. Don't make your DD feel she's failed if she ends up with say A,C,E and at a lower ranking Uni. She'll still have done wonderfully and will have loads of opportunities in life.

@Spanielmad , what grade did she get in her gcse maths? Can you get her an intensive tutor over the Christmas break to get her predicted grade up to a C?

Leave submitting her ucas until the end of Jan and try to get the A B C prediction from the school.

There will be options in clearing, Uni of Nottingham went low in some courses this year and Lancaster is always in clearing with all sorts of courses.

You've had great advice from the posters who really are in the know.

Are you able to say which subject she is hoping to study? I think that makes a lot of difference. I was looking at Clearing last summer to gauge which subjects were more likely to appear and where (I know this changes every year) and it gave us all some perspective on applications for this round (our kids are applying now for 2025 entry).

Last year, a friend of mine's DD got ACD and the A was an unexpected uptick from the predictions (B I think originally).She got a place through clearing at Cardiff on the course she most wanted to pursue, and was prior to this, looking at only colleges which had previously been polys (and had offers from).

So it may be worth your own DD a) throwing her hat in the ring to see what shakes out this year but b) preparing for clearing and c) being mentally prepared to take a gap year / do another A level (as suggested by others).

Geography always been popular subject wanting slightly higher grades - was when I was at uni - I was looking and did something in similar field wanting lower grades.

Cardiff uni is in Russel group and want for physical geography ABB-BBC (with 1 science subject) or BBB-BCC (with 2 science subjects).

Aberystwyth University wants A-Levels of BBB–CCC for geography -Reading wants BBB for Geography - Leicester ABB not Russel group but well regarded universities.

Geography or Liberal Arts (with Geo) may be higher but perhaps you just need to look a bit sideways for courses - less popular combinations or bit wider.

Other option is a foundation year at Uni- but check if you have to apply separately for that - Liverpool said you had to us so would be an option of UCAS Form - but Reading was automatic offer if failed to get the grades.

Also check how many go on to undergraduate course and ask lots of questions about what they'd actually be studying for year - how general - and that they can automatically then get on to undergraduate degree if they pass.

It is a pricy option though - we considered if for DD1 who got in without it in the end to a huge sigh or relief and despite dire predictions on here for those not getting top grades is doing really well.

I'm not going to answer your actual question - but just want to give advice on the Maths A level. She can hopefully improve on her grade with a lot of hard work of her own - and that is by completing lots and lots of past papers.
Where she doesn't get the right answer go through the model solutions so she knows next time - and then redo that question in a week or so's time.

don't suppose writing to some department and explain/beg would help LOL

No it won’t help. And what are you explaining anyway? Your ideas of your daughter’s achievements are undercut by the evidence.

There are plenty of good Geography/Liberal Arts programmes. Aim for places that ask for BBB or perhaps ABB.

For initial applications, A*BD won't get you an offer from a top uni.

However, in clearing, plenty of top unis will go lower. Nottingham was accepting CCC this year. York, Lancaster also possible.

However, to echo other posters' caution, please don't expect that your DC will exceed their predicted grades. Research from UCL has shown only 8% of students are under-predicted.

@Spanielmad I am so sorry I don't know how I missed you mentioning the subject as Geography.

Definitely consider clearing. York had places in clearing this year (as I think someone else mentioned).

I suspect you’ve realised that your initial question was a bit topsy-turvy - the issue at this stage is really not which offers to accept, but how to attract the right offers in the first place. I’d think ideally two things need to happen before term starts in January:

1. A real blitz on maths revision. If she doesn’t already have them, look at the range of revision resources on CGP’s website. Many include video solutions so that a student is talked through the areas they are struggling with. They also offer packs of practice papers for the two main boards, with very helpful marking guides.
2. Some focused research using the UCAS website and other resources to identify a good range of courses to apply for before the equal consideration deadline in late January. Realism is required! But she can still use one or two of her choices for reasonably aspirational courses, which in turn may help motivate with the maths.

Clearing (and if applicable UCAS Extra) will be there as safely nets, but I don’t think all is lost before then. Best of luck to her.

Yes I was going to say stats are most are over predicted not under so unlikely to score several grades higher.
Have you looked at Lancaster and Leicester. Not RG but usually high up in rankings and well regarded courses.

Have you looked at Queens Belfast. It’s RG and really trying to attract GB students it gives them £3000 scholarship yr 1. Got impression they would be flexible for near miss on grades. It’s BBB geography.
I’d look at a tutor for maths to try and get a C.