How to choose what offers to accept when grades not up there?

[Spanielmad]

So uni is coming closer. My child is struggling with one of her a-levels (should never have chosen it) and currently (November) on an E, predicted grade a D and hopefully will actually get a C.
Other two subjects should be fine, predicted grades A* (also chosen subject for uni course) and B, but hopefully should get AA on results day.

Child wants to go to top unis that require AAA or AAB. But what if we end up with AAD?? or ABD, ABC? I imagine we will get 5 offers, but all conditional. So in the spring we will have to accept one firm and one spare offer, but we have no idea how to make that choice. Accepting an AAA offer seems a long shot, but then again, I know of lots of people who got in Russell Group unis with much lower grades, so perhaps worth a shot? Chosen course is popular but not madly popular. Should she only accept offers from unis that match her grades - that would mean much, much lower ranked unis. We know she will flourish on a top uni, she's a quick learner. I suspect we're gonna end up in clearing.... but how do we choose 2 offers to accept in the spring that gives us a chance??

Apply to Lancaster. They generally don’t offer with predictions below a C but you might be lucky and they are ranked in the top 10. They have masses of space on their courses because in year one everyone does a major and either one or two minors (apart from medicine. Law and a couple of others) so they are way more flexible on their course numbers. It’s why they always have lots of options in clearing.

@Spanielmad thanks for the update.

I think you (and she) need to let go of the idea that she would be looking at an A in ? history or whatever when she is looking at a D in maths – unless her maths is really weak (but then why take A level?). It’s not an easy A level, but none of them are.

I also think to say the B prediction is current rather than optimistic is a bit optimistic of you… I agree with @mrsm43s, sixth-form teachers know what they are doing, they are saying what this student is likely to get in the exams in the summer and in some (many) cases they over-predict, giving the best-possible-case grade.

I hear you though on the one poorer grade dragging her down. Don’t think like that tho and nor should she as it’s not helpful. What unis have you looked at?

Some suggestions:
Leicester – book offer for geog BA is ABB – my DD went there on clearing with BCC for a course with a book offer of ABB IIRC. It is a great uni and a good city to study in. It flies under the radar bc it is not RG but it offers excellent teaching (for DD’s subject anyway) and a diverse student body. It’s a good location too. I see @trivialMorning and@Cakeandusername agree it's worth a look.

Nottingham Trent – BSc in geog is 104 – 112 tariff points (104 = ACD). Another great uni that is perhaps overlooked bc of the big campus down the road, but I know lots of ppl who have studied here and had great experiences. Another excellent city as well.

Newcastle – again ABB is its offer and tho it is RG it is not as popular as some on that list. Marvellous city and lovely uni. No experience of whether it goes below its offer but it wouldn’t surprise me (whereas it would if we were talking about LSE or Durham).

UEA in Norwich, another good uni that is underrated by some. Again book offer is ABB but I bet there is some flex there. Highly rated by those who go there but not RG.

I also agree with others' suggestion of Lancaster - another that is sometimes overlooked in the race for Durham/Bristol/Leeds/London.

For some of these I mention she may get an offer with her PGs. Some may appear in clearing with a lower offer than they say initially. Tho there is no guarantee of that from year to year.

If she is looking at A/Astar-B-D (her PGs) then I don’t agree that there is nothing; plenty of newer but excellent unis like NTU, Sheffield Hallam, UWE (112 UCAS points – A-starCD – for geog BA), Leeds Beckett and more are looking for those kinds of grades.

Also yy – have you looked at a tutor for maths? If she could get that grade to a C it would be a big help.

Also consider whether any contextual flags are likely to apply in her favour and if so use them strategically. Different universities have very different approaches on contextual criteria.

Have a look ar Uni of Gloucestershire. Excellent Geography courses. 1st in the UK for student satisfaction in the 2024, 2023, 2022 and 2020 Guardian University League tables
• 1st in the UK for teaching quality in The Times and The Sunday Times Good University Guide 2025
• 1st and 2nd for teaching, assessment & feedback for Physical and Human Geography in this year’s National Student Survey

How can one look this up? Are the clearing stats from this year available somewhere?

There are personal reasons why she is behind on maths (she could have been behind on everything but other subjects turned out fine).

Yes, she is considering this, if all goes pear shaped....

Even if a course is in clearing, doesn’t always mean a low offer. DD’s chosen subject was in clearing at York - with an offer of AAA - and at Birmingham with an offer of ABB. Not miles from their book offers.

Also clearing varies so much; in DD’s year Loughborough had her course at BBB; in ds2’s year (2021 so an oddity it’s true) Loughborough had nothing at all in clearing.

She may get lucky but I’m trying to say don’t rely on it. Visit some unis that are in reach and see what she thinks,

ah yes, thanks. Yes, I suppose a visit to some of the campuses of some lower grade unis might be useful so she can see these are fine unis and well worth going to. Thinking of Reading, Swansea, maybe check out Lancaster (although far away for us). Thanks!

Reading has a lovely campus - DD1 did open day there and did apply though went elsewhere.

DS did open day at Swansea - he was more impressed by department than campus though it was first he saw.

https://thetab.com/2024/12/02/the-many-many-uk-unis-where-grads-now-get-more-jobs-than-russell-group-students

^^ This may be worth a read or offer some reassurance.

DH Uni has done last open day for this year though other uni may still be holding them and many have on-line guides/views. DH uni is already switching to offer holder days already. I don't remember those being a thing when I was applying though did go to an interview at uni I ended up at. DD1 went to one - to her first choice offer - and it was where she got her offer lowered as she impressed them.

We did talk to DD1 about retaking if she didn't get in - she re-took two As exams in Y2 as they can do here - or taking some more subjects for a year (again AS levels make that easier ) but nearer the summer got less she wanted to think about doing this and more she wanted the next step.

I'm not sure if there's anywhere you can see what grades were being offered in clearing in 2024 but I had a look at the time to see what some of DCs options for Geography were offering -

Leicester published offer ABB, CCC in clearing
Lancaster published offer ABB, BBC in clearing
Liverpool was also offering surprisingly lower grades in clearing than the ABB they publish - but I didn't write down what they were!

So hopefully that will reassure you that there are options for your DD whether she has a gap year or not.

Is she doing anything else which is worth UCAS points eg an EPQ?

I suppose a visit to some of the campuses of some lower grade unis might be useful so she can see these are fine unis and well worth going to. Thinking of Reading, Swansea, maybe check out Lancaster (although far away for us).

None of the universities you mention is "lower grade" - I used to run a very very successful department at one of them (regularly in the top 5 in all league tables).

You're really going to have to accept your DD isn't an "all A Stars" pupil, and let her get on with being the best she can be. She'll develop and improve at university, when she's able to focus on what she likes studying.

I'd suggest on the UCAS form your DD puts one aspirational Uni (say AAB/ABB), 3 hopefully achievable (say BBB/BBC) and 1 comfortably achievable (say CCC or less).

Then see what offers come through. Hold off firming until close to the June deadline, when you can have a serious conversation with her teachers about what she is realistically likely to achieve.

Above all, don't make your daughter feel that not getting the grades to get into a "top" university is a catastrophe or a failure.

@Spanielmad Just to provide a nugget of optimism. My son was in this position. Grade 8 in maths so should have had no issues at A Level. Massive crash and burn - predicted an E. There was one element he just couldn't get. First thing we did was speak to the Maths department (they were useless). Then we got him a tutor. We used an online service called MyTutor and they were great. I credit them with getting him through. He knuckled under and did past paper after past paper. He ended up with a B in Maths, got into his first choice university (a good Russell Group uni (although I question whether people actually understand what the Russell Group is)), got his Masters and is now doing his PhD. All is not lost. It will take hard work, application and determination. It will be really tough. She'll have to make sacrifices and she may still not get what she needs but the best advice my son was given was to be aspirational in his choices. Have a back up though! Good luck to you and your daughter. Don't give up yet.

That's just great. Well done to him. Thanks for sharing. Will check out Mytutor....

I agree with @YellowAsteroid wrt “lower rated” unis - Lancaster is as highly rated as plenty of RG unis. If you cast it like that @Spanielmad your dd might feel she isn’t doing well. If she gets AstarCD she has done very well and can get a great degree from a good uni.

It’s very far from the end of the world if you don’t get into Oxford, UCL or Bristol. Most students don’t after all.

Agree wrt a maths tutor btw, I think several pps have suggested that and while it won’t raise her PGs, a C or even B in maths will give her a lot more options.

Hi, OP -

I agree completely with @YellowAsteroid that for you or DD to contact universities to try explaining the circumstances around her PGs will backfire. Badly.’

However your slightly delicate discussion leaves open the possibility that something has happened which may have risen to the level of Mitigating Circumstances. If this is true, it is worthwhile sharing with the referee in confidence (and with evidence). If they agree the circumstance reaches a certain threshold, they will mention the Mit Circs in their letter. This can make the difference to a borderline application. If the circumstances are being resolved, it is also a reason pupils can be expected to work to a higher standard in Y13 than they were able to show in Y12.

So for a serious situation, this is worth considering. Be aware however that referees and admissions tutors are in agreement that Mit Circs require a rather high threshold.

I wouldn’t base too much hope in any stats. It’s widely thought(hoped) that last years A level results vs predicted grades was a one off anomaly. Certainly my course was in clearing last summer for the first time ever. My brother is an exams officer and warned me way before results day that a lot of students were likely to not meet their predicted grades. We dropped about a third of our firm offers on results day so had to go into clearing.

The issue is I’m now been told to make more offers this year to avoid going into clearing again. Which would be ok if there is another year of an unexpected disparity in results vs PGs. But there’s no reason to think this will happen again. (I think last years a level students were a cohort who didn’t sit GCSEs due to Covid). So im actually worried we will make too many offers and be oversubscribed. 🤷‍♀️

She could potentially look at a gap year and whether she could sit one more A level in that year, but you need to talk to the individual universities and some will only count ucas points from exams in one year. I’d also advise going to as many open days as possible and talking to the course staff about chances of lower grades still getting an offer, etc.

Clearing info isn’t out there. Good idea to watch yr12 to get an idea for yr13 but no guarantees what will be in clearing.
Some unis like Leicester and Lancaster do pick up a lot of students via clearing.
Out of interest had a look at complete uni guide league table and Lancaster very well regarded for geography above many RG, whilst it might not go as low grades in 2025 definitely worth a look. It’s on main west coast train line very accessible.

It’s widely thought(hoped) that last years A level results vs predicted grades was a one off anomaly.

Interesting as I thought it was a dip - lower birth rate so fewer 18 year olds looking to go to Uni before it tracks back up slightly - and a drop in international student numbers - partly Tory policy changes and partly other countries internal issues- that lead to scramble for students.

I thought last year intake did GCSE exams - they'd have been year 9 when covid hit but I think there were concessions and more lenient grading - and not clear when that all ended - though know DS current Y13 it had stopped for his GCSE (Y8 when covid hit) .

DS did ask about lower grades - but we were surprised how much lower DD1 offer was made and then what they accepted than stated offer - but said he can't rely on this.

So he has have a really good day, okay day and lower stated entry one put down - but he's happy with first two and okay with rest and is hoping they make an offer for him. It's hard though as his solid B says he an A* student and his further maths AS level result was several grades below predicted to point he's re-sitting worst paper.

We're keen to avoid clearing though partly due to DS reaction to change and partly as DH thinks the students do tend to do less well.

@trivialMorning , I think you’re right actually and they did sit GCSEs….i can’t calculate my years correctly 😁

But surely if a student was applying for say history with French and was predicted a D in maths but A or Astar in history and French then an admissions tutor would know that maths was just a poor a level choice rather than an indication of someone who would do poorly in their degree

Not really... if they have plenty of applicants who have met the predicted grades ie enough to fill the course taking into account offer to acceptance, then they have no need to offer.

The problem is that they expect the students to be consistent and to work on areas of weakness. It isn’t like 30 years ago where an A at ALevel was unusual. Nowadays straight As and A stars is common. If the published requirement is 3xA then you’d be extremely lucky to get an offer with AAD